Digital Economy and Carbon Emission Performance: A Case Study of 276 Cities in China
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摘要: 数字经济是推动城市低碳转型的重要动力，也是实现碳达峰、碳中和目标的关键路径. 该研究以中国276个地级及以上城市为研究对象，利用改进的熵值法测算各城市数字经济发展水平，并将碳排放绩效分解为碳排放强度和碳排放效率，在此基础上综合运用面板固定效应模型和中介效应模型剖析数字经济对碳排放绩效的影响及其作用机制. 结果表明：①数字经济发展水平每提高1%，碳排放强度将显著下降0.180%，碳排放效率将显著提高0.276%，即数字经济能显著提高碳排放绩效. ②数字经济对碳排放绩效的影响存在城市区位和城市规模的异质性，东部城市和大城市数字经济的作用强度更大. ③数字经济可通过提高经济发展水平、优化产业结构以及加速技术创新显著提高碳排放绩效. 研究显示，数字经济不仅能直接显著提升碳排放绩效，而且可通过规模效应、结构效应和技术效应间接影响碳排放绩效. 因此，未来仍需加快数字经济高质量发展，尤其增强科技创新和产业升级对碳排放绩效的传导作用；同时根据城市规模和资源禀赋，建立健全的差异化碳减排机制.Abstract: The digital economy is an important driving force to promote urban low-carbon transformation, and it is also a key path to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. This study takes 276 cities at prefecture level and above in China as the research object, uses the improved entropy method to measure the development level of the digital economy in each city, and divides the carbon emission performance into carbon emission intensity and carbon emission efficiency. On the basis, the panel fixed effect model and mediation effect model are comprehensively used to analyze the impact of digital economy on carbon emission performance and its mechanism. The results show that: (1) For every 1% increase in the development level of digital economy, carbon emission intensity will be significantly reduced by 0.180%, and carbon emission efficiency will be significantly increased by 0.276%, that is, digital economy can significantly improve the carbon emission performance. (2) The impact of digital economy on carbon emission performance is heterogeneous in city location and city size, and the effect of digital economy is greater in the eastern cities and megacities. (3) Digital economy can significantly enhance carbon emission performance by raising the level of economic development, optimizing industrial structure and accelerating technological innovation. The research shows that the digital economy can not only significantly boost carbon emission performance directly, but also indirectly affect carbon emission performance through scale effect, structure effect and technology effect. Therefore, it is still necessary to expedite the high-quality development of digital economy, especially to strengthen the transmission effect of technological innovation and industrial upgrading on carbon emission performance. At the same time, a differentiated carbon emission reduction mechanism needs to be established and improved based on city size and resource endowment.
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表 1 数字经济发展水平评价指标体系
Table 1. Evaluation index system of the level of digital economy
一级指标 二级指标 指标含义 单位 权重 方向 数
字
经
济
发
展
水
平数字基础 移动电话普及率 % 0.036 4 + 互联网普及率 % 0.012 6 + 互联网宽带接入用户 104户 0.082 3 + 专利申请量 件 0.126 3 + 人力资源 每万人中大学生数量 人 0.085 5 + 信息业从业人员数占从业人员总数的比例 % 0.044 9 + 普及应用 人均电信业务总量 104元 0.075 6 + 人均邮电业务总量 104元 0.075 7 + 公路货运量 104 t 0.065 0 + 发展环境 人均GDP 104元 0.028 3 + 人均工资 元 0.015 1 + 教育支出占GDP的比重 % 0.032 2 + 科技支出占GDP的比重 % 0.061 0 + 普通高等院校数量 所 0.182 1 + 市场化指数 0.025 0 + 数字普惠金融 数字金融覆盖广度 0.017 4 + 数字金融使用深度 0.017 3 + 普惠金融数字化程度 0.017 3 + 
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表 2 变量的描述性统计
Table 2. Descriptive statistics of variables
项目 单位 样本量 算数平均值 方差 最小值 最大值 VIF值 被解释变量 碳排放强度(ln Cei) 104 t 2 760 0.703 0.479 −1.281 2.095 碳排放效率(ln Cee) 2 760 −0.639 0.284 −1.814 0 解释变量 数字经济发展水平(ln Dig) 2 760 −2.381 0.614 −3.798 0.569 4.26 中介变量 经济发展水平(ln Pgdp) 104元 2 760 −0.778 0.559 −2.422 1.066 2.83 产业结构(ln Is) 2 760 −0.879 0.257 −2.288 −0.176 2.12 技术创新水平(ln Tec) 项 2 760 −1.576 0.772 −4.357 1.842 1.47 控制变量 能源强度(ln Ei) kW·h/元 2 760 −3.072 0.757 −6.870 −0.153 1.24 人口密度(ln Pi) 人/km2 2 760 −1.133 0.952 −5.172 2.178 1.58 政府分权化水平(ln Gover) % 2 760 −0.755 0.530 −3.582 0.980 1.81 对外开放程度(ln Open) % 2 760 2.623 1.347 −3.832 5.700 1.40 交通配置水平(ln Tra) m2 2 760 2.779 0.431 0.315 4.096 1.10
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表 3 随机效应模型和固定效应模型的回归结果
Table 3. Regression results of random effect model and fixed effect model
变量 随机效应模型 固定效应模型 ln Cei ln Cee ln Cei ln Cee ln Dig −0.189***
(0.000)0.298***
(0.000)−0.180***
(0.000)0.276***
(0.000)ln Ei 0.155***
(0.000)−0.123***
(0.000)0.150***
(0.000)−0.155***
(0.000)ln Pi −0.125***
(0.000)−0.015
(0.172)−0.127**
(0.018)−0.105*
(0.090)ln Gover −0.046***
(0.001)0.036***
(0.007)−0.049***
(0.000)0.068***
(0.000)ln Open 0.016***
(0.002)0.009
(0.112)0.017***
(0.002)−0.004
(0.570)ln Tra 0.057***
(0.002)0.097***
(0.000)0.048**
(0.016)0.062***
(0.007)常数项 0.378***
(0.000)−0.442***
(0.000)0.403***
(0.000)−0.639***
(0.000)城市固定效应 否 否 是 是 R2 0.151 0.126 0.151 0.146 样本数量 2 760 2 760 2 760 2 760 注：***、**、*分别表示在 0.01、0.05、0.1 的置信度上统计显著. 括号内为P值. 下同.
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表 4 城市区位异质性分析
Table 4. Analysis of city location heterogeneity
变量 东部地区 中部地区 西部地区 东北地区 ln Cei ln Cee ln Cei ln Cee ln Cei ln Cee ln Cei ln Cee ln Dig −0.241***
(0.000)0.286***
(0.000)−0.179***
(0.000)0.336***
(0.000)−0.168***
(0.000)0.269***
(0.000)−0.149*
(0.074)0.142***
(0.000)常数项 0.554***
(0.000)−0.236***
(0.004)0.620***
(0.001)−0.485***
(0.000)0.647**
(0.011)−1.218***
(0.000)−0.766
(0.222)−1.163***
(0.000)控制变量 是 是 是 是 是 是 是 是 城市固定效应 是 是 是 是 是 是 是 是 R2 0.522 0.505 0.142 0.367 0.086 0.220 0.127 0.374 样本数量 860 860 790 790 740 740 370 370
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表 5 城市规模异质性分析
Table 5. Analysis of city size heterogeneity
变量 大城市 中小城市 ln Cei ln Cee ln Cei ln Cee ln Dig −0.198***
(0.000)0.332***
(0.000)−0.166***
(0.000)0.276***
(0.000)常数项 0.373***
(0.001)−0.435***
(0.000)0.591***
(0.000)−0.752***
(0.000)控制变量 是 是 是 是 城市固定效应 是 是 是 是 R2 0.205 0.505 0.057 0.322 样本数量 1 000 1 000 1 760 1 760
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表 6 稳健性检验结果
Table 6. Results of robustness test
变量 内生性检验 剔除直辖市 剔除极端值 ln Cei ln Cee ln Cei ln Cee ln Cei ln Cee ln Dig −0.295***
(0.000)0.306***
(0.000)−0.179***
(0.000)0.293***
(0.000)−0.189***
(0.000)0.293***
(0.000)常数项 0.371***
(0.000)−0.405***
(0.000)0.400***
(0.000)−0.633***
(0.000)0.416***
(0.000)−0.651***
(0.000)控制变量 是 是 是 是 是 是 城市固定效应 是 是 是 是 是 是 C-D Wald-F 224.151 224.151 R2 0.342 0.342 0.215 0.444 0.230 0.461 样本数量 2 484 2 484 2 720 2 720 2 760 2 760 注：C-D Wald-F为弱工具变量检验统计量.
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表 7 数字经济对碳排放强度的中介效应检验结果
Table 7. Results of the mediation effect test of digital economy on carbon emission intensity
变量 ln Pgdp ln Is ln Tec ln Cei ln Cei ln Cei ln Dig 0.582***
(0.000)0.049***
(0.000)1.623***
(0.000)0.076***
(0.000)−0.208***
(0.000)−0.170***
(0.000)ln Pgdp −0.440***
(0.000)ln Is 0.575***
(0.000)ln Tec −0.006
(0.562)常数项 0.446***
(0.000)1.992***
(0.000)6.839***
(0.000)0.560***
(0.000)−0.741
(0.197)0.445***
(0.000)控制变量 是 是 是 是 是 是 城市固定效应 是 是 是 是 是 是 R2 0.590 0.664 0.677 0.209 0.152 0.151 样本数量 2 760 2 760 2 760 2 760 2 760 2 760 Sobel检验 −0.037*
(0.053)
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表 8 数字经济对碳排放效率的中介效应检验结果
Table 8. Results of the mediation effect test of digital economy on carbon emission efficiency
变量 ln Pgdp ln Is ln Tec ln Cee ln Cee ln Cee ln Dig 0.582***
(0.000)0.049***
(0.000)1.623***
(0.000)0.062***
(0.000)0.226***
(0.000)0.242***
(0.000)ln Pgdp 0.368***
(0.000)ln Is 1.034***
(0.002)ln Tec 0.021*
(0.078)常数项 0.446***
(0.000)1.992***
(0.000)6.839***
(0.000)−0.803***
(0.000)−2.699***
(0.000)−0.784***
(0.000)控制变量 是 是 是 是 是 是 城市固定效应 是 是 是 是 是 是 R2 0.590 0.664 0.677 0.199 0.149 0.147 样本数量 2 760 2 760 2 760 2 760 2 760 2 760
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