留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

环境规划中情景分析方法及应用研究

刘 永 郭怀成 王丽婧 戴永立 张秀敏 贺 彬

刘 永, 郭怀成, 王丽婧, 戴永立, 张秀敏, 贺 彬. 环境规划中情景分析方法及应用研究[J]. 环境科学研究, 2005, 18(3): 82-87.
引用本文: 刘 永, 郭怀成, 王丽婧, 戴永立, 张秀敏, 贺 彬. 环境规划中情景分析方法及应用研究[J]. 环境科学研究, 2005, 18(3): 82-87.
LIU Yong, GUO Huai-cheng, WANG Li-jing, DAI Yong-li, ZHANG Xiu-min, HE Bin. Scenario Analysis and Its Application in Environmental Planning[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2005, 18(3): 82-87.
Citation: LIU Yong, GUO Huai-cheng, WANG Li-jing, DAI Yong-li, ZHANG Xiu-min, HE Bin. Scenario Analysis and Its Application in Environmental Planning[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2005, 18(3): 82-87.

环境规划中情景分析方法及应用研究

Scenario Analysis and Its Application in Environmental Planning

  • 摘要: 确定环境规划中情景分析的步骤和方法主要包括:对象和焦点问题及关键决策识别,核心要素识别,驱动因子列举,驱动因子重要性和不确定性排序,核心情景驱动选择和情景勾画,情景的丰富和应用.以邛海流域的环境规划为案例进行分析,设计了2005-2015年的4种情景,并利用系统动力学模型(SD)和不确定性模糊多目标模型(IFMOP)对情景进行了定量描述和分析.结果显示,邛海的环境污染压力正在增大,污染源治理和生态工程是需要优先考虑的项目,但所需的投资巨大,对地方财政造成很大压力,需要寻求新的投资途径并加强环境管制.

     

  • [1] Pearman A D.Scenario construction for transportation planning[J].Transportation Planning and Technology,1988,(7):73-85.
    [2] Kahn J,Wiener A J.The year 2000:a framework for speculation on the next 33 years[M].New York: MacMillan Press,1967.
    [3] 欧志丹,程声通,贾海峰.情景分析法在赣江流域水污染控制规划中的应用[J].上海环境科学,2003,22(8):568-572.Ou Zhidan,Cheng Shengtong,Jia Haifeng.Application of scenario analysis to the Planning of Gan River Basin[J].Shanghai Environmental Sciences,2003,22(8):568-572.
    [4] Ratcliffe J S.Scenario building:a suitable method for strategic property planning?[C].Cambridge:RICS Cutting Edge Conference,1999.
    [5] Fahey L,Randal R M.Learning from the future:competitive foresight scenarios[M].New York:Wiley, 1998.52-55.
    [6] Shiftan Y,Kaplan S,Hakkert S.Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system[J].Transporation Research Part D,2003,8(5):323-342.
    [7] 宗蓓华.战略预测中的情景分析法[J].预测,1994,(2):50-55.Zong Beihua.Scenario analysis method in strategic forecasting[J].Forecast,1994,(2):50-55.
    [8] Ringland G.Scenario planning:managing for the future[M].New York:John Wiley,1998.3-15.
    [9] 卢凤君.农业发展情景分析模型及其应用[J].中国软科学,1994,(7):32-34.Lu Fengjun. Scenario analysis model and its application in agricultural development[J].China Soft Science,1994,(7):32-34.
    [10] Sun L X,Hubacek K.A scenario analysis of Chinas land use and land cover change:incorporating biophysical information into input-output modeling[J].Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2001, 12(4):367-397.
    [11] 郭怀成,张振兴,于NFDA4.流域土地可持续利用规划方法及应用研究[J].地理研究,2003,22(6):671-679.Guo Huaicheng,Zhang Zhenxing,Yu Yong.Sustainable basin land-use planning and its application[J]. Geographical Research,2003,22(6):671-679.
    [12] 何春阳,史培军,李景刚,等.中国北方未来土地利用变化情景模拟[J].地理学报,2004,59(4):599-607.He Chunyang,Shi Peijun,Li Jinggang,et al.Scenarios simulation land use change in the northern China by system dynamic model[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(4):599-607.
    [13] 朱跃中.未来中国交通运输部门能源发展与碳排放情景分析[J].中国工业经济,2001,(12):30-35.Zhu Yuezhong.Analysis on energy development and carbon exhaustion according to circumstances in future Chinas communications and transportation[J].China Industrial Economy,2001,(12):30-35.
    [14] 朱跃中.中长期能源发展情景分析方法对我国未来节能规划的启示[J].中国能源,2000,22(5):5-6.Zhu Yuezhong.The revelation of middle and long periood energy development scenarios to the economizing planning of energies in China[J].China Energy,2000,22(5):5-6.
    [15] 申威,张阿玲.用排放情景分析系统研究北京市机动车污染问题[J].城市环境与城市生态,2001,14(4):31-46.Shen Wei,Zhang Aling.Research of Beijing automotive emission control with city automotive emission scenario analysis system[J].Urban Environment & Urban Ecology,2001,14(4):31-46.
    [16] 李晓文.辽河三角洲湿地景观规划的预案研究[D].沈阳:中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,2000.Li Xiaowen.Scenarios study on landscape planning in Liaohe delta wetland[D].Shenyang:Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2000.
    [17] 刘东云.小流域景观规划管理的预景(Scenario)研究--以樟木头镇官仓河流域为例[D].北京:北京大学,2001.Liu Dongyun.Scenario analysis of landscape planning for small basins:take Guancang River Basin, Zhangmutou Town as a case study[D].Beijing:Peking University,2001.
    [18] 张振兴,郭怀成,陈冰,等.干旱地区经济-生态环境系统规划方法与应用[J].生态学报,2002,22(7):1018-1027.Zhang Zhenxing,Guo Huaicheng,Chen Bing,et al.Economic-environmental system planning for aird regions in China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2002,22(7):1018-1027.
    [19] 徐中民.情景基础的水资源承载力多目标分析理论及应用[J].冰川冻土,1999,21(2):99-106.Xu Zhongmin.A scenario-based framework for multicriteria decision analysis in water carrying capacity[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1999,21(2):99-106.
    [20] 黎晓亚,马克明,傅伯杰,等.区域生态安全格局:设计原则与方法[J].生态学报,2004,24(5):1055-1062.Li Xiaoya,Ma Keming,Fu Bojie et al.The regional pattern for ecological security(RPES):designing principles and method[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2004,24(5):1055-1062.
    [21] Hugues De Jouvenel.A brief methodological guide to scenario building[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2000,65(1):37-48.
    [22] Richard Pinkham,Scott Chaplin.Water 2010,four scenarios for 21st century water systems[EB/OL].http://www.rmi.org/images/other/Water/W96-04-Water2010.pdf.
  • 加载中
计量
  • 文章访问数:  1767
  • HTML全文浏览量:  20
  • PDF下载量:  131
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2004-05-08
  • 刊出日期:  2005-06-25

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回