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基于可信性理论的水资源优化配置模型

刘年磊 赵林 毛国柱

刘年磊, 赵林, 毛国柱. 基于可信性理论的水资源优化配置模型[J]. 环境科学研究, 2012, 25(4): 377-384.
引用本文: 刘年磊, 赵林, 毛国柱. 基于可信性理论的水资源优化配置模型[J]. 环境科学研究, 2012, 25(4): 377-384.
LIU Nian-lei, ZHAO Lin, MAO Guo-zhu. A Credibility Theory-Based Model for Optimal Water Resources Allocation[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2012, 25(4): 377-384.
Citation: LIU Nian-lei, ZHAO Lin, MAO Guo-zhu. A Credibility Theory-Based Model for Optimal Water Resources Allocation[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2012, 25(4): 377-384.

基于可信性理论的水资源优化配置模型

基金项目: 国家“十一五”科技支撑计划项目(2010BAC68B04);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2012ZX07102-06)

A Credibility Theory-Based Model for Optimal Water Resources Allocation

  • 摘要: 针对城市水资源与水环境系统中存在的不确定性与复杂性,提出了模糊环境下基于可信性理论的CFCCP模型(可信性模糊机会约束规划模型),并将其应用于衡水市水资源优化配置模型的研究中. CFCCP模型以衡水市经济、社会与环境效益最大化为目标,以供需水量、区域协调发展等为不确定性约束,以各水源在各子区不同部门间的分配为决策变量,并且设计了基于模糊模拟的猴群算法进行求解. CFCCP模型可反映不确定性因素对系统收益的影响,计算了各规划水平年置信水平为08时的水资源配置风险-收益权衡方案,得到2015年和2025年的区域经济效益分别为198 36530×104和266 22730×104元,缺水量分别为25 29936×104和20 99096×104 m3,污染物排放量分别为12 80847和13 00044 t. 同时,通过与传统优化算法的比较,证明了基于模糊模拟的猴群算法在求解多维优化问题时的有效性.

     

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  • 刊出日期:  2012-04-25

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