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基于Monte Carlo模拟的潜在生态危害指数模型及其应用

李如忠 潘成荣 徐晶晶 丁贵珍 邹阳

李如忠, 潘成荣, 徐晶晶, 丁贵珍, 邹阳. 基于Monte Carlo模拟的潜在生态危害指数模型及其应用[J]. 环境科学研究, 2012, 25(12): 1336-1343.
引用本文: 李如忠, 潘成荣, 徐晶晶, 丁贵珍, 邹阳. 基于Monte Carlo模拟的潜在生态危害指数模型及其应用[J]. 环境科学研究, 2012, 25(12): 1336-1343.
LI Ru-zhong, PAN Cheng-rong, XU Jing-jing, DING Gui-zhen, ZOU Yang. Application of Potential Ecological Risk Assessment Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2012, 25(12): 1336-1343.
Citation: LI Ru-zhong, PAN Cheng-rong, XU Jing-jing, DING Gui-zhen, ZOU Yang. Application of Potential Ecological Risk Assessment Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2012, 25(12): 1336-1343.

基于Monte Carlo模拟的潜在生态危害指数模型及其应用

基金项目: 环境保护部“良好湖泊生态环境保护专项”

Application of Potential Ecological Risk Assessment Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

  • 摘要: 基于农田土壤重金属污染风险评估系统的随机性和不确定性,将Monte Carlo模拟技术引入Hkanson潜在生态危害指数法中,构建了潜在生态危害指数随机不确定模型,提出了风险等级判别方法,并将其应用于合肥市庄墓镇农田土壤重金属(Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn和As)污染风险的评估. 结果表明:除Cr属轻微污染外,农田土壤中Cu、Pb、Zn和As均为中等污染水平,综合污染指数(Cd)属中等污染水平,相应概率为98.58%;除As为中等潜在生态风险外,其他4种重金属均属轻微风险等级,潜在生态危害指数(RI)属中等风险水平,概率为91.18%.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2012-09-12
  • 修回日期:  2012-10-25
  • 刊出日期:  2012-12-25

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