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基于OTIS模型的巢湖十五里河源头段参数灵敏性分析

李如忠 杨 源 丁贵珍 钱 靖 杨继伟 董玉红

李如忠, 杨 源, 丁贵珍, 钱 靖, 杨继伟, 董玉红. 基于OTIS模型的巢湖十五里河源头段参数灵敏性分析[J]. 环境科学研究, 2014, 27(11): 1265-1271.
引用本文: 李如忠, 杨 源, 丁贵珍, 钱 靖, 杨继伟, 董玉红. 基于OTIS模型的巢湖十五里河源头段参数灵敏性分析[J]. 环境科学研究, 2014, 27(11): 1265-1271.
LI Ru-zhong, YANG Yuan, DING Gui-zhen, QIAN Jing, YANG Ji-wei, DONG Yu-hong. OTIS Model-Based Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for Headwater Stream in the Shiwulihe River, Chaohu Lake Basin[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2014, 27(11): 1265-1271.
Citation: LI Ru-zhong, YANG Yuan, DING Gui-zhen, QIAN Jing, YANG Ji-wei, DONG Yu-hong. OTIS Model-Based Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for Headwater Stream in the Shiwulihe River, Chaohu Lake Basin[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2014, 27(11): 1265-1271.

基于OTIS模型的巢湖十五里河源头段参数灵敏性分析

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(51179042)

OTIS Model-Based Parameter Sensitivity Analysis for Headwater Stream in the Shiwulihe River, Chaohu Lake Basin

  • 摘要: 为探究城市地区渠道化源头河段水环境模型参数灵敏性,以巢湖流域十五里河源头段为对象,选择氯化钠(NaCl)为保守型示踪剂,采用瞬时投加方式,开展现场示踪试验. 在此基础上,利用OTIS模型(小河流水体溶质迁移扩散模型)模拟溶质(示踪剂)输移扩散规律,并以均方误差(RMSE)为目标函数,就±10%和±20%等参数多种变幅情景,采用扰动分析方法对A(河道过水断面面积)、As(暂态存储区断面面积)、α(交换系数)及D(扩散系数)等参数开展局部灵敏性分析. 结果表明:在十五里河源头段溶质迁移特征模拟方面,OTIS模型具有很好的适用性;尽管不同河段各参数的灵敏性排序存在一定的变化性,但总体趋势较为明显,表现为A>α>As>D,这与欧美国家空间尺度相近的一些小河流水体基本相同;由于α和As的灵敏性超过D,表明在渠道化的城市小河流源头段,考虑暂态存储对于溶质输移扩散的影响十分必要. 研究结果进一步验证了扰动分析方法对于OTIS模型参数灵敏性分析的有效性.

     

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  • 收稿日期:  2013-12-06
  • 修回日期:  2014-03-13
  • 刊出日期:  2014-11-25

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