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《大气污染防治行动计划》实施对经济与环境的潜在影响

张 伟 王金南 蒋洪强 雷 宇 毕 军

张 伟, 王金南, 蒋洪强, 雷 宇, 毕 军. 《大气污染防治行动计划》实施对经济与环境的潜在影响[J]. 环境科学研究, 2015, 28(1): 1-7.
引用本文: 张 伟, 王金南, 蒋洪强, 雷 宇, 毕 军. 《大气污染防治行动计划》实施对经济与环境的潜在影响[J]. 环境科学研究, 2015, 28(1): 1-7.
ZHANG Wei, WANG Jinnan, JIANG Hongqiang, LEI Yu, BI Jun. Potential Economy and Environment Impacts of China's National Air Pollution Control Action Plan[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(1): 1-7.
Citation: ZHANG Wei, WANG Jinnan, JIANG Hongqiang, LEI Yu, BI Jun. Potential Economy and Environment Impacts of China's National Air Pollution Control Action Plan[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(1): 1-7.

《大气污染防治行动计划》实施对经济与环境的潜在影响

基金项目: 国家环境保护公益性行业科研专项(201209001,201209037);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71433007)

Potential Economy and Environment Impacts of China's National Air Pollution Control Action Plan

  • 摘要: 基于全产业链视角,采用资源环境投入产出模型,定量化模拟了在现有产业技术条件下国家《大气污染防治行动计划》(下称《计划》项目)实施对社会经济和资源环境的潜在影响. 结果表明,《计划》项目实施:①将拉动我国GDP累计增加20 570×108元,非农就业岗位累计增加260×104个,起到刺激经济发展、促进社会就业等作用;②将直接带动环保装备制造、建筑安装、综合技术服务、锅炉技术改造以及新能源汽车等相关行业的发展,同时通过产业链关联间接带动金属冶炼压延加工业,化学工业(不含塑料和橡胶,下同),非金属矿物制品业,电力、热力的生产和供应业等传统高耗能、高污染产业的发展;③将累计新增SO2、NOx、烟粉尘排放量分别为121.3×104、96.0×104和60.7×104 t,年均新增排放量相当于预期减排能力的3.8%、2.2%、2.2%,主要集中于电力、热力的生产和供应业,金属冶炼压延加工业,非金属矿物制品业,化学工业以及石油加工炼焦核燃料加工业等5个行业;④将累计新增煤炭、水资源消耗量分别为1.6×108和108.2×108 t,二者的年均新增消耗量相当于2010年消耗量的1.05%和0.36%,主要集中于电力、热力的生产和供应业及金属冶炼压延加工业. 未来应加快环保产业发展,不断优化产业结构,进一步提高火电、钢铁等国民经济基础性行业污染治理效率和资源使用效率,从产品供给角度减少大气治理活动对环境的影响.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2014-08-21
  • 修回日期:  2014-10-21
  • 刊出日期:  2015-01-25

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