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华北地区能源及交通行业对极端天气的敏感性分析

马占云 冯 鹏 高庆先 孔珊珊 许 霜 居 辉 付加锋

马占云, 冯 鹏, 高庆先, 孔珊珊, 许 霜, 居 辉, 付加锋. 华北地区能源及交通行业对极端天气的敏感性分析[J]. 环境科学研究, 2015, 28(4): 495-502.
引用本文: 马占云, 冯 鹏, 高庆先, 孔珊珊, 许 霜, 居 辉, 付加锋. 华北地区能源及交通行业对极端天气的敏感性分析[J]. 环境科学研究, 2015, 28(4): 495-502.
MA Zhanyun, FENG Peng, GAO Qingxian, KONG Shanshan, XU Shuang, JU Hui, FU Jiafeng. Analysis of Sensitivity of Energy and Transportation Industries to Extreme Weather in Northern China[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(4): 495-502.
Citation: MA Zhanyun, FENG Peng, GAO Qingxian, KONG Shanshan, XU Shuang, JU Hui, FU Jiafeng. Analysis of Sensitivity of Energy and Transportation Industries to Extreme Weather in Northern China[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(4): 495-502.

华北地区能源及交通行业对极端天气的敏感性分析

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2012CB955904);南京信息工程大学重点实验室开放基金项目(KHK1307)

Analysis of Sensitivity of Energy and Transportation Industries to Extreme Weather in Northern China

  • 摘要: 选取1987─2010年华北五省市区(北京、天津、河北、山西、内蒙古)代表极端天气的HDD(采暖度日)、CDD(降温度日)和P(降水距平百分率)3个指标,通过建立Cobb-Douglas和超越对数2类生产函数,分析极端天气对华北五省市区的能源、交通2个行业产值影响的敏感性. 结果表明:CDD、P对2个行业产值的影响较小,HDD的影响较大. 能源行业产值对HDD、CDD及P的静态敏感系数最大值分别为0.29、0.10、0.07,表明这3个指标对能源行业产值的影响依次降低;交通行业产值对上述3个指标的敏感系数同样也依次减少. 动态敏感性分析表明,能源消费结构和交通运输方式决定了CDD、P对五省市区2个行业产值的影响较小,而HDD的影响相对较大且年际波动也大,即冰雪、寒潮对能源、交通2个行业产值的影响程度远大于高温热浪、洪涝、干旱等极端天气. 山西交通行业产值对极端天气的敏感性在五省市区中表现最为显著,HDD、CDD和P每增加1%,该省交通行业产值将分别变化-0.11%、0.11%、0.03%. 敏感性分析结果与五省市区极端天气事件的分布和2个行业产值的损失相吻合.

     

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  • 刊出日期:  2015-04-25

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