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北京市大气污染减排潜力及居民健康效益评估

陈 娟 李 巍 程红光 谢元博

陈 娟, 李 巍, 程红光, 谢元博. 北京市大气污染减排潜力及居民健康效益评估[J]. 环境科学研究, 2015, 28(7): 1114-1121.
引用本文: 陈 娟, 李 巍, 程红光, 谢元博. 北京市大气污染减排潜力及居民健康效益评估[J]. 环境科学研究, 2015, 28(7): 1114-1121.
CHEN Juan, LI Wei, CHENG Hongguang, XIE Yuanbo. Evaluation of Emission Reduction Potentials of Key Air Pollutants and Health Benefits for Residents of Beijing[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(7): 1114-1121.
Citation: CHEN Juan, LI Wei, CHENG Hongguang, XIE Yuanbo. Evaluation of Emission Reduction Potentials of Key Air Pollutants and Health Benefits for Residents of Beijing[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(7): 1114-1121.

北京市大气污染减排潜力及居民健康效益评估

基金项目: 中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(1213075)

Evaluation of Emission Reduction Potentials of Key Air Pollutants and Health Benefits for Residents of Beijing

  • 摘要: 北京市能源消费正面临着污染物减排和保障居民健康的双重约束. 针对未来城市能源消费设计BAU(基准情景)和2个分别基于近期和中长期节能环保要求的受控情景(EC1、EC2),模拟预测了3个情景下主要大气污染物(SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5)在目标年(2020年)的排放水平,以确定大气污染减排潜力. 分别采用综合暴露-反应关系模型(IER)和泊松回归模型,评估北京市居民对PM2.5暴露的健康风险,估算健康损失的经济价值. 结果表明:相较BAU情景,在EC1情景下, SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5减排率分别达到52.95%、49.77%、32.82%、41.41%,可减少PM2.5暴露下居民死亡和发病219 783例,其中死亡1 295例、住院3 920例、门诊182 558例、患病32 011例,获得健康效益111.87×108元;在EC2情景下,SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5的减排率分别达到66.61%、63.42%、54.96%、57.44%,可减少PM2.5暴露下居民死亡和发病519 234例,其中死亡2 930例、住院9 248例、门诊427 070例、患病79 986例,获得健康效益290.10×108元. 相较EC1情景,EC2情景可产生更大的减排潜力和居民健康效益. 从空间分布上来看,北京主城区因能源方案优化获得的健康效益较大,约占总健康经济效益的60%.

     

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  • 刊出日期:  2015-07-25

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