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清洁空气行动计划实施对长三角地区PM2.5污染改善效果模拟评估

李 莉 安静宇 卢 清

李 莉, 安静宇, 卢 清. 清洁空气行动计划实施对长三角地区PM2.5污染改善效果模拟评估[J]. 环境科学研究, 2015, 28(11): 1653-1661.
引用本文: 李 莉, 安静宇, 卢 清. 清洁空气行动计划实施对长三角地区PM2.5污染改善效果模拟评估[J]. 环境科学研究, 2015, 28(11): 1653-1661.
LI Li, AN Jingyu, LU Qing. Modeling Assessment of PM2.5 Concentrations Under Implementation of Clean Air Action Plan in the Yangtze River Delta Region[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(11): 1653-1661.
Citation: LI Li, AN Jingyu, LU Qing. Modeling Assessment of PM2.5 Concentrations Under Implementation of Clean Air Action Plan in the Yangtze River Delta Region[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(11): 1653-1661.

清洁空气行动计划实施对长三角地区PM2.5污染改善效果模拟评估

基金项目: 国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAC22B03);国家环境保护公益性行业科研专项(201209001);上海市科学技术委员会科技攻关项目(14DZ1202905)

Modeling Assessment of PM2.5 Concentrations Under Implementation of Clean Air Action Plan in the Yangtze River Delta Region

  • 摘要: 为了解长三角地区清洁空气行动计划实施后区域PM2.5的改善效果,在建立2012年长三角地区大气污染物排放清单的基础上,依据上海、江苏、浙江和安徽三省一市行动计划细则,对2013—2017年各省、直辖市主要大气污染物减排量进行测算. 利用WRF(天气研究和预报模式)-CMAQ(通用多尺度空气质量模型)系统,模拟研究了清洁空气行动计划实施后可能带来的区域PM2.5改善效果. 结果表明:清洁空气行动计划涉及到的能源、工业、交通等六大领域减排任务,按照减排力度强、中、弱3种方案测算,预计长三角地区SO2减排总量分别为74.5×104、53.8×104和34.4×104 t;NOx减排总量分别为108.7×104、83.9×104和61.1×104 t;一次PM2.5减排总量分别为40.3×104、26.1×104和14.6×104 t;挥发性有机污染物(VOCs)的减排总量分别为98.2×104、57.0×104和23.5×104 t.模拟评估结果表明,在弱、中、强3种减排方案下,长三角地区国控点ρ(PM2.5)年均值预计比基准年(2013年)分别降低(4.4±1.1)、(8.1±2.4)和(12.5±3.9)μg/m3,降幅分别达到8.7%±2.2%、15.9%±4.7%和24.3%±7.7%. 长三角地区须在清洁空气行动计划实施细则指导下,控制新增量,并稳步严格推进前体物强力减排,才能实现2017年预期空气质量改善目标.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2015-03-25
  • 修回日期:  2015-08-27
  • 刊出日期:  2015-11-25

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