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采用因素分解模型研究京津冀地区用水变化的驱动效应

庄立 王红瑞 张文新

庄立, 王红瑞, 张文新. 采用因素分解模型研究京津冀地区用水变化的驱动效应[J]. 环境科学研究, 2016, 29(2): 290-298.
引用本文: 庄立, 王红瑞, 张文新. 采用因素分解模型研究京津冀地区用水变化的驱动效应[J]. 环境科学研究, 2016, 29(2): 290-298.
ZHUANG Li, WANG Hongrui, ZHANG Wenxin. Driving Effects Analysis of Water Consumption Changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Using a Factor Decomposition Model[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2016, 29(2): 290-298.
Citation: ZHUANG Li, WANG Hongrui, ZHANG Wenxin. Driving Effects Analysis of Water Consumption Changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Using a Factor Decomposition Model[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2016, 29(2): 290-298.

采用因素分解模型研究京津冀地区用水变化的驱动效应

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(51279006,3)

Driving Effects Analysis of Water Consumption Changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Using a Factor Decomposition Model

  • 摘要: 京津冀地区水资源供需矛盾突出,迫切需要分析其用水量变化与社会经济发展之间的内在联系. 在分析用水总量变化时空特征的基础上,采用因素分解模型研究了2003—2013年京津冀地区产业用水量变化的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应. 结果表明:京津冀地区产业用水量10年间下降了8.84%,是京津冀地区实现经济增长和水资源利用脱钩的主要影响因素;规模效应10年间累计增加了267.95×108 m3,是导致产业用水量增长的唯一驱动因素;结构效应和技术效应都倾向于减少产业用水量,分别累计减少124.17×108和164.11×108 m3;技术效应是北京产业用水量减少的主要原因,10年间累计减少了79.14%的产业用水量;而天津的结构效应要强于技术效应,10年间分别累计减少81.17%和73.71%的产业用水量;河北的结构效应和技术效应10年间分别累计减少51.37%和68.33%的产业用水量,相比京津仍有较大潜力. 研究显示,调整产业结构、推广节水技术是缓解京津冀水资源短缺压力的有效途径,未来河北在承接产业转移的同时,应紧密结合产业结构的优化和经济增长方式的转变.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2015-06-23
  • 修回日期:  2015-11-20
  • 刊出日期:  2016-02-25

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