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回归模型法推导油菜田土壤Cd限值的不确定性

张厦 宋静 高慧 张强 刘赣

张厦, 宋静, 高慧, 张强, 刘赣. 回归模型法推导油菜田土壤Cd限值的不确定性[J]. 环境科学研究, 2016, 29(8): 1170-1179.
引用本文: 张厦, 宋静, 高慧, 张强, 刘赣. 回归模型法推导油菜田土壤Cd限值的不确定性[J]. 环境科学研究, 2016, 29(8): 1170-1179.
ZHANG Sha, SONG Jing, GAO Hui, ZHANG Qiang, LIU Gan. Uncertainties of Soil-Crop Transfer Models for Deriving Critical Values of Cd in Rape Planting Soils[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2016, 29(8): 1170-1179.
Citation: ZHANG Sha, SONG Jing, GAO Hui, ZHANG Qiang, LIU Gan. Uncertainties of Soil-Crop Transfer Models for Deriving Critical Values of Cd in Rape Planting Soils[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2016, 29(8): 1170-1179.

回归模型法推导油菜田土壤Cd限值的不确定性

基金项目: 国家环境保护公益性行业科研专项(201409042)

Uncertainties of Soil-Crop Transfer Models for Deriving Critical Values of Cd in Rape Planting Soils

  • 摘要: 为研究土壤-作物迁移模型推导农田土壤环境基准的不确定性,以油菜为例,通过贵州省4种典型微酸性土壤——红壤、黄壤、石灰土和黄棕壤进行Cd盐添加的盆栽试验,除全量Cd外,选择5种有效态提取剂,分别与油菜籽w(Cd)建立土壤-作物迁移模型. 参照GB 13078—2001《饲料卫生标准》w(Cd)限值(0.5 mg/kg),采用模型预测中位值和95%预测上限进行土壤Cd限值推导并分析模型的不确定性. 结果表明:全量和各提取态Cd质量分数与油菜籽w(Cd)均能建立极显著的一元(R2为0.907~0.946)或多元(考虑pH)回归模型(R2为0.875~0.962). 5.5
    50(以多元模型中位值推导的农田安全种植油菜的Cd限值)随pH的升高从0.93 mg/kg增至1.45 mg/kg,HNO3提取态、HCl提取态、DTPA提取态的Cd的质量分数也分别从0.81、0.97、0.73 mg/kg升至1.39、1.79、1.66 mg/kg. 基于CaCl2提取态Cd的一元模型对pH不敏感,SEQS50不受其影响. 对所有模型而言,SEQS50是SEQS95(基于模型95%的预测上限推导的限值)的1.1倍左右. 其中,CaCl2提取态Cd的SEQS50和SEQS95分别为0.052和0.049 mg/kg,小于福建省CaCl2提取态Cd标准限值(0.15 mg/kg). 为降低不确定性,需要选择合适的提取剂,使用全量Cd,HNO3、HCl或DTPA 3种提取态Cd建模时须兼顾pH的影响. 研究显示,SEQS95能够降低土壤Cd限值达标而作物Cd含量超标的可能性.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2016-03-11
  • 修回日期:  2016-05-12
  • 刊出日期:  2016-08-25

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