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我国中部六省CO2排放动态变化趋势

郭莹 李进华 夏东坡 孙丙华

郭莹, 李进华, 夏东坡, 孙丙华. 我国中部六省CO2排放动态变化趋势[J]. 环境科学研究, 2016, 29(9): 1279-1287.
引用本文: 郭莹, 李进华, 夏东坡, 孙丙华. 我国中部六省CO2排放动态变化趋势[J]. 环境科学研究, 2016, 29(9): 1279-1287.
GUO Ying, LI Jinhua, XIA Dongpo, SUN Binghua. Dynamic Changes of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Six Provinces of Central China[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2016, 29(9): 1279-1287.
Citation: GUO Ying, LI Jinhua, XIA Dongpo, SUN Binghua. Dynamic Changes of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Six Provinces of Central China[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2016, 29(9): 1279-1287.

我国中部六省CO2排放动态变化趋势

基金项目: 安徽生态省建设省级引导资金计划(皖发改环资(2012)1078号);国家重大科学仪器设备开发专项(2012YQ22011308)

Dynamic Changes of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Six Provinces of Central China

  • 摘要: 探讨区域CO2排放的长期变化趋势对制订碳减排政策和实现减排目标具有重要意义,为此,根据IPCC指南,测算了2000—2012年我国中部六省(安徽省、山西省、河南省、湖北省、湖南省和江西省)的CO2排放量及其排放强度;借助DEA(data envelopment analysis)-Malmquist指数模型,从CO2排放量、生产总值、资本存量、能源消费总量和劳动力5个方面,对中部六省的动态CO2排放效率进行了全要素分析.结果表明:①中部六省的CO2排放总量由2000年的6.74×108 t升至2012年的20.24×108 t,年均增长1.12×108 t.②中部六省CO2排放强度由2000年的3.41降至2012年的1.74,年均下降5.5%.受地区能源产业结构的影响,山西省CO2排放强度峰值高达11.40,减排压力与其余五省相比更为艰巨.③动态CO2排放效率均值为1.054,呈稳步提升趋势,技术效率进步指数年均值为1.051(>1),对CO2排放效率提升起到了拉动作用,而技术效率变动指数和规模效率指数的年均值均为0.999(<1),拉低了中部六省的CO2排放效率.研究显示,中部六省CO2排放量增速虽呈逐年下降趋势,但增长态势在短期内仍无法改变.CO2排放与地区所处经济发展阶段关系密切,其排放效率的提升主要依靠技术水平的进步、低碳管理方法的推广和规模经济的发展.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2015-12-23
  • 修回日期:  2016-05-22
  • 刊出日期:  2016-09-25

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