1961—2018年呼伦湖水面面积变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

王鹏飞; 郭云艳; 周康; 郑朔方; 姜霞; 王书航

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.02.12

1961—2018年呼伦湖水面面积变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.02.12

中国环境科学研究院湖泊生态环境研究所, 湖泊水污染治理与生态修复技术国家工程实验室, 国家环境保护湖泊污染控制重点实验室, 北京 100012

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41907335

详细信息

作者简介:
王鹏飞(1987-)，女，四川自贡人，助理研究员，博士，主要从事湖泊水环境研究，wangpf01@craes.org.cn

通讯作者:
王书航(1985-)，男，安徽阜阳人，高级工程师，博士，主要从事湖泊水环境研究，wangsh@craes.org.cn

中图分类号: X524
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-11-15
- 修回日期: 2021-03-09
- 刊出日期: 2021-04-25

Variation of Lake Area of Hulun Lake during 1961-2018 and Its Response to Climate Change

National Engineering Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control and Ecological Restoration, State Environment Protection Key Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control, Institute of Lake Ecological Environment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41907335

摘要

摘要: 为揭示近60年来呼伦湖水面面积的变化规律，确定影响呼伦湖水面面积变化的主要因素，采用曼-肯德尔检验（Mann-Kendall tests）、一元线性回归和小波分析法解析1961—2018年呼伦湖水面面积及其所在区域气温、降水量、蒸发量和相对湿度的变化趋势、突变特征和周期性变化规律，采用皮尔逊相关性分析（Pearson correlation analysis）和灰色关联分析研究水面面积与气象要素的相关性.结果表明：1961—2018年呼伦湖水面面积在1 739~2 360 km²之间，总体以72.84 km²/（10 a）的速率显著减小，2009年人工调水实施以后水面面积逐渐恢复并稳定在2 030 km²左右.近60年来呼伦湖区域气候暖干化明显，表现为气温显著升高、蒸发量显著增大、相对湿度显著降低、降水量非显著减少.1961—2018年，呼伦湖水面面积对气候突变及其周期波动存在相应的响应，水面面积与区域蒸发量呈显著负相关，Pearson相关系数为-0.546，与区域蒸发量和降水量的灰色关联度为0.938~0.960，人工调水实施前（1961—2008年）水面面积与气象要素的相关性强于1961—2018年.研究显示，气候变化引起的蒸发量增大是呼伦湖水面面积减小的重要原因，人工调水严重干扰了2009—2018年呼伦湖水面面积对气候变化的响应.
- 气候变化 /
- Mann-Kendall检验 /
- 小波分析 /
- 灰色关联分析 /
- 人工调水
Abstract: In order to reveal the variation characteristics of Hulun Lake area and identify its primary influencing factors in the past 60 years, the Hulun Lake area from 1961 to 2018 and the annual temperature, precipitation, evaporation and relative humidity of the surrounding area were analyzed using Mann-Kendall tests, linear regression and wavelet analysis. The correlation between the lake area and the meteorological elements was analyzed using Pearson correlation and grey relational analysis. The results showed that the Hulun Lake area (1739-2360 km²) decreased significantly during 1961-2018 at a rate of 72.84 km²/(10 a). Since the implementation of the water diversion project in 2009, it increased gradually and stabilized at 2030 km² in recent several years. The climate of the Hulun Lake area tended to be warmer and drier in the past 60 years, which manifested that the temperature and evaporation increased significantly, the relative humidity decreased significantly, and the precipitation decreased insignificantly. The Hulun Lake area during 1961-2018 showed a corresponding response to the abrupt and periodic changes of the climate. Moreover, the lake area was negatively correlated with the evaporation with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.546, and the grey relational coefficients between the lake area and the evaporation and precipitation were as high as 0.938-0.960. The correlation between the lake area and the meteorological elements during the period before the implementation of the water diversion project (1961-2008) was stronger than that during 1961-2018. The increase in evaporation caused by the climate change is the main reason for the decrease in the Hulun Lake area. The water diversion project started in 2009 has a strong impact on the response of the Hulun Lake area to the climate change during 2009-2018.
- climate change /
- Mann-Kendall tests /
- wavelet analysis /
- grey relational analysis /
- artificial water diversion

HTML全文

图 1 1961—2018年呼伦湖水面面积及其M-K突变检验结果

Figure 1. Lake area of Hulun Lake from 1961 to 2018 and its M-K abrupt change test results

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 1961—2018年呼伦湖水面面积小波方差图和小波系数实部值等值线图

Figure 2. Wavelet variance and contour map of the real part of wavelet coefficients of the lake area of Hulun Lake from 1961 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 1961—2018年呼伦湖区域气温、降水量、蒸发量和相对湿度M-K突变检验结果

Figure 3. M-K abrupt change test results of the annual air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and relative humidity of Hulun Lake area from 1961 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 1961—2018年呼伦湖区域气温、降水量、蒸发量和相对湿度小波方差图

Figure 4. Wavelet variance of the annual air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and relative humidity of Hulun Lake area from 1961 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 1961—2018年呼伦湖区域气温、降水量、蒸发量和相对湿度小波系数实部值等值线图

Figure 5. Contour maps of the real part of the wavelet coefficients of the annual air temperature, precipitation, evaporation and relative humidity of Hulun Lake area from 1961 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 1961—2018年呼伦湖水面面积及区域气象要素变化倾向率和M-K趋势检验值(Z值)

Table 1. Tendency rates and M-K Z statistics of lake area of Hulun Lake and the meteorological elements during 1961-2018

参数	水面面积/km²	气温/℃	降水量/mm	蒸发量/mm	相对湿度/%
变化倾向率/(10 a)	-72.84	0.33	-3.25	50.44	-1.07
Z值	-5.35^**	4.51^**	-1.10	3.43^**	-4.88^**
注：**代表通过0.01水平显著性检验.

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 呼伦湖水面面积与气象要素的Pearson相关系数及灰色关联度

Table 2. Pearson correlation and grey relational coefficients of lake area of Hulun Lake and the meteorological elements

参数	时段	气温	降水量	蒸发量
Pearson相关系数	1961—2018年	-0.245	0.114	-0.546^**
	1961—2008年	-0.363^*	0.090	-0.553^**
	2009—2018年	0.703^*	0.116	0.344
	1961—2018年	0.645	0.938	0.960
灰色关联度	1961—2008年	0.640	0.947	0.973
	2009—2018年	0.524	0.815	0.934
注：和*分别代表在0.05和0.01水平上显著相关.

下载: 导出CSV

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