Evaluation of Ecological Security in Hulun Lake Watershed and Its Spatio-Temporal Distribution Trend
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摘要: 呼伦湖是我国北方第一大湖，具有涵养水源、生物多样性维护、气候调节等重要生态功能，对于维系我国北方生态安全屏障具有重要作用.近年来，随着气候暖干化加剧，呼伦湖面临着湖体面积萎缩、芦苇湿地大面积消失、局部草原区退化严重、土地沙化面积扩大、关键种群缺失等生态安全问题.该研究围绕“水资源-水环境-水生态”三水共生目标，以“山水林田湖草沙”系统观为指导，基于遥感和GIS技术对呼伦湖流域1990—2018年的生态安全时空分布格局进行评价.结果表明：①2018年呼伦湖及其流域的生态安全指数分别为0.495和0.774，分别处于预警和良好状态.②呼伦湖流域生态安全自1990年以来分别经历了骤降期、稳定期和恢复期等3个时期，呈现“一林一草一湖”的生态安全分布格局.③2010年呼伦湖生态安全水平最低，主要分布在新开河入湖口、湖西岸大部分区域、湖中心以及湖东南方向的湾口区域；流域则在2015年的生态安全状况最差，主要位于新左旗中部、海拉尔河流域以及呼伦沟等地，尤其是沿乌尔逊河上游东侧地带表现最为突出.④影响呼伦湖流域生态安全水平的主要因素为入湖径流量、蓝藻水华面积占比和水源涵养量，而长期超载过牧、水体污染物浓缩效应以及湿地面积萎缩是限制生态安全水平进一步提升的重要因素.研究显示，呼伦湖流域生态安全与水资源状况密切相关，湖面面积维持在2 036 km2以上能保障流域较高的生态安全水平.此外，蓝藻水华面积、放牧强度与湿地面积均关系着区域生态安全，建议通过建立蓝藻水华风险防控体系、合理核定载畜量、保护与修复芦苇湿地以改善局部区域生态安全状况.Abstract: As the largest lake in northern China, Hulun Lake has important ecological functions, such as water conservation, biodiversity maintenance and climate regulation, and it plays an important role in maintaining the ecological security barrier in north China. In recent years, with the intensification of the warm and dry climate, Hulun Lake is facing ecological security problems, such as the shrinking of lake area, the disappearance of large reed wetland areas, local grassland degradation, the expansion of land desertification area, and the loss of major populations. The research aimed at water resources, water environment and water ecology. The spatial and temporal distribution pattern and succession of ecological security were evaluated based on remote sensing and GIS technology to call Hulun lake basin from 1990 to 2018. The results showed that the ecological security index of Hulun Lake and its basin was 0.495 and 0.774, respectively, which were in early warning and good state in 2018. Since 1990, the ecological security of the Hulun Lake Basin has experienced three periods of precipitous decline, stable period and recovery period. The ecological security level of Hulun Lake was the lowest, which was mainly distributed in the mouth of Xinkai River, most areas on the west bank of the lake, the center of the lake and the bay mouth area to the southeast of the lake in 2010. The ecological security status of Hulun Lake Basin was the worst in 2015, mainly located in the central part of New Left Banner, the Hailar River Basin and Hulun Valley, especially distributed in the east side of the upper reaches of the Wuerxun River. The main factors affecting the ecological security level of the Hulun Lake Basin were the lake runoff, the proportion of cyanobacteria bloom area and the water resource conservation, while long-term overgrazing, water pollutant concentration and wetland area shrinkage were important factors that limit the further improvement of ecological security. The study revealed that the ecological security of the Hulun Lake Basin is closely related to the water resources, and maintaining the lake surface area of more than 2036 km2 can guarantee the higher ecological security level of the basin. In addition, the regional ecological security was affected by the area of cyanobacteria bloom, grazing intensity and wetland area. It is suggested to establish a risk prevention and control system for cyanobacteria blooms, rationally check the livestock capacity, and protect and restore reed wetland to improve the ecological security of local areas.
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图 3 1981—2014年呼伦湖流域降水量和年均气温的变化
Figure 3. The variation of precipitation and temperature in the Hulun Lake Basin from 1981 to 2014
图 4 1961—2019年呼伦湖湖面面积频率直方图
Figure 4. Frequency histogram of Hulun Lake area from 1961 to 2019
图 5 1990—2018年呼伦湖及其流域范围生态安全指数平均值
Figure 5. The mean value of ecological security index of Hulun Lake and its watershed from 1990 to 2018
图 6 2018年呼伦湖流域生态安全格局
Figure 6. The ecological security pattern of the Hulun Lake Basin in 2018
图 7 1990—2018年呼伦湖生态安全时空分布格局变化趋势
Figure 7. The spatial and temporal distribution pattern of ecological security in Hulun Lake from 1990 to 2018
图 8 1990—2018年呼伦湖流域生态安全时空分布格局变化趋势
Figure 8. The spatial and temporal distribution pattern of ecological security in Hulun Lake Basin from 1990 to 2018
图 9 1990—2018年呼伦湖流域生态安全影响要素变化趋势
Figure 9. The variation trend of ecological security impact factors in Hulun Lake Basin from 1990 to 2018
表 1 呼伦湖流域生态安全评价指标体系及指标权重和标准值
Table 1. Index system, index weight and standard value of ecological security assessment in Hulun Lake Basin
准则层 要素层 指标层 综合权重 标准值 依据 指标属性 压力(0.56) 气象条件(0.15) 年降雨量(mm)(0.61) 0.052 212.42 高强度高频次干旱集中发生年份的平均值 不安全值 + 年平均气温(℃)(0.27) 0.023 1.24 - 年蒸发量(108 m3)(0.12) 0.010 13.79 - 人口(0.05) 人口密度(人/km2)(0.60) 0.017 20 联合国制定的半干旱区人口密度临界值[26] 安全值 - 人口自然增长率(0.40) 0.011 6.4 1985—2017年平均值 - 水资源(0.53) 湖泊面积(km2)(0.75) 0.223 2 036 频率分析法[27] 不安全值 + 入湖径流量(108 m3)(0.25) 0.074 3.1 + 放牧强度(0.27) 草地载畜强度(羊单位/104亩)(1.00) 0.151 372.75 文献[28] 安全值 - 状态(0.32) 水环境(0.39) 化学需氧量浓度(mg/L)(0.17) 0.021 69.9 环境流体动力学模型(EFDC)模拟呼伦湖水质能达到的理想值 安全值 - 总磷浓度(mg/L)(0.39) 0.048 0.121 - 总氮浓度(mg/L)(0.44) 0.055 1.479 - 水生态(0.24) 蓝藻水华面积占比(%)(0.56) 0.043 10 《水华遥感与地面监测评价技术规范(试行)》(HJ 1098—2020) 不安全值 - 水鸟数量(只/a)(0.32) 0.025 46 600 2009—2018年平均值 安全值 + 浮游动物生物量(mg/L)(0.12) 0.010 4.0 1981—2010年平均值 安全值 + 陆域生态(0.18) 土地沙化率(%)(0.45) 0.026 3.30 1990—2018年平均值 不安全值 - 土地盐渍化率(%)(0.32) 0.018 2.10 1990—2018年平均值 不安全值 - 植被覆盖度(%)(0.16) 0.009 0.28 自然间断点分级法[29] 安全值 + 地上部生物量(g/m2)(0.08) 0.005 204 安全值 + 生态系统服务功能与敏感性(0.10) 水源涵养量(104 m3/km2)(0.46) 0.015 34 自然间断点分级法[29] 安全值 + 土壤保持量(t/hm2)(0.05) 0.002 475 安全值 + 生物多样性维护(0.08) 0.002 42 安全值 + 水土流失(0.15) 0.005 0.91 不安全值 - 土地沙化(0.26) 0.008 1.95 不安全值 - 景观格局(0.09) 湿地景观生态安全度(0.64) 0.019 0.085 1990—2018年间最低值 不安全值 + 草地景观生态安全度(0.28) 0.008 0.179 + 林地景观生态安全度(0.07) 0.002 0.356 + 响应(0.12) 生态恢复措施(0.69) 水土流失治理面积(104 hm2)(0.30) 0.024 2.7 2005—2018年间最低值 不安全值 + 引河济湖工程引水量(108 m3)(0.70) 0.057 3.2 工程实施以来(2009—2018年)最低值 不安全值 + 生态治理投入(0.31) 环保投资占GDP比例(%)(1.00) 0.037 1.24 2016年全国平均值[30] 安全值 + 注：括号内数值表示各指标权重. “+”表示正向指标，“-”表示负向指标. 
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表 2 生态安全综合评估分级标准
Table 2. Classification standard of comprehensive ecological security assessment
等级 生态安全状态 得分区间 特征 Ⅰ级 理想
(很安全)[0.8, 1) 生态系统服务功能完整，生态环境基本没有受到破坏，生态系统结构完整，有很好的调节功能，没有生态问题，可视为可持续发展的理想状态 Ⅱ级 良好
(较安全)[0.6, 0.8) 生态系统服务功能较为完善，生态环境很少受到破坏，生态系统结构尚完整，生态问题基本不大，一般干扰下可恢复 Ⅲ级 预警
(基本安全)[0.4, 0.6) 生态系统服务功能已有退化，生态环境受到一定破坏，生态系统结构有变化，但尚可维持基本功能，生态问题显现，受干扰后易恶化 Ⅳ级 较差
(较不安全)[0.2, 0.4) 生态系统服务功能严重退化，生态环境受到较大破坏，生态系统结构破坏较大，环境污染与资源消耗比较严重，生态问题较大，受外界干扰后恢复困难 Ⅴ级 很差
(很不安全)[0, 0.2) 生态系统服务功能几近崩溃，生态环境受到严重破坏，生态系统结构残缺不全，环境污染与资源消耗严重，生态恢复与重建很困难，生态环境问题严重
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