农村居民生活碳达峰路径及对策

张保留; 吕连宏; 吴静; 王斯一; 王深; 罗宏

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.05.22

农村居民生活碳达峰路径及对策

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.05.22

中国环境科学研究院环境管理研究中心, 北京 100012

基金项目:

中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项 2019YSKY001

详细信息

作者简介:
张保留(1989-), 女, 安徽蚌埠人, 助理研究员, 硕士, 主要从事能源与环境经济研究, zblsmile@126.com

通讯作者:
吕连宏(1981-), 男, 天津人, 正高级工程师, 博士, 主要从事能源与环境经济研究, lvlh@craes.org.cn

中图分类号: X3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-01-18
- 修回日期: 2021-05-13

Rural Household Carbon-Peak Path and Countermeasures

Environmental Management Research Department, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China

Funds:

Basic Scientific Research Funds in National Nonprofit Institutes, China 2019YSKY001

摘要

摘要: 全国碳达峰目标已经明确，农村居民生活能源消费是碳排放增长的重要来源，亟待得到有效控制.为研究农村居民生活碳达峰路径，基于农村居民生活能源消费现状分析，采用碳排放系数法对2000—2018年农村居民生活的碳排放进行核算，基于情景分析法，从能源消费结构调整的角度，设定不同情景分析农村居民生活的碳达峰时间及峰值.结果表明：①2000—2018年，农村居民生活碳排放量、人均碳排放量均呈快速上升趋势，其中农村居民生活碳排放量占国家碳排放总量的3.0%~4.0%.②在2030年国家碳排放强度下降65%的目标下，农村居民生活同步碳达峰目标约为3.64×10⁸ t；农村居民煤炭消费的碳排放已在2017年达峰，总量达峰则依托于能源结构调整情景实现目标.③基准情景下，2030年前无法实现碳达峰；政策情景下，将在2027—2028年达到峰值，峰值约为3.66×10⁸ t；优化情景下，将在2024年达到峰值，峰值约为3.44×10⁸ t.④基于能源结构调整的碳达峰路径主要表现为煤炭消费占比降至18.0%左右，天然气、电力、其他能源消费占比分别提至1.5%、35.0%、30.0%左右.研究显示，促进碳达峰的措施可重点从完善顶层设计、制定农村能源发展战略规划、推动分布式能源系统建设、加强节能减排技术保障、创新资金支持、普及绿色低碳生活方式等几个方面加强实施，从而推动农村的能源变革与节能减排.
- 农村 /
- 居民生活 /
- 能源消费 /
- 碳排放 /
- 达峰路径
Abstract: The target of China's carbon emission peak has been determined, and the substantial growth of rural household energy consumption has become an important source of carbon emissions growth, which needs to be controlled urgently. This research is based on the analysis of the current energy consumption in rural residents. In order to study the rural household carbon peak path, the carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of rural residents from 2000 to 2018. The peak path of rural household carbon emissions is analyzed under the national carbon emission peak goal and different scenarios. The scenarios are set under the perspective of energy consumption structure adjustment. The results showed that: (1) Both the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of rural households show a rapid upward trend from 2000 to 2018. Among them, the total rural household carbon emissions account for about 3.0%-4.0% of the national carbon emissions. (2) Under the national target of reducing carbon intensity by 65% in 2030, the synchronous peak target of rural household carbon emissions should be 364 million tons. The rural household carbon emissions from coal consumption reached a peak in 2017, and the total amount could reach the peak depending on the energy structure adjustment scenarios to achieve the target. (3) In the baseline scenario, the carbon emissions peak will not be achieved before 2030. Under the policy scenario, rural household carbon emissions will reach the peak in 2027-2028, with a value of about 366 million tons. Under the optimized scenario, the peak will appear in 2024, with a value of about 344 million tons. (4) According to the energy structure adjustment target, the carbon peak path of rural energy emissions can be presented as follows: the proportion of coal consumption should be reduced to about 18.0%, and the proportion of natural gas, electricity and other energy consumption should be increased to about 1.5%, 35.0% and 30.0%, respectively. The supporting measures can be strongly taken from aspects including improving the top-level design, formulating rural energy development strategic planning, promoting the development of distributed energy system, strengthening technical support for energy conservation and emission reduction, innovating financial support, and popularizing green and low-carbon lifestyles, so as to promote rural energy reform, energy conservation and emission reduction.
- rural /
- household /
- energy consumption /
- carbon emissions /
- peak path

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图 1 2000—2018年我国农村居民生活不同能源品种消费量及人均综合能耗

Figure 1. Consumption of different types of energy and per capita comprehensive energy consumption of rural residents in China from 2000 to 2018

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图 2 2000—2018年我国农村能源消费结构

Figure 2. Rural energy consumption structure in China from 2000 to 2018

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图 3 农村居民生活碳排放量及人均碳排放量

Figure 3. Rural householdcarbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions

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图 4 农村居民生活不同能源消费的碳排放构成

Figure 4. Carbon emission composition of different energy consumption of rural residents

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图 5 中国2000—2018年碳排放总量及碳排放强度变化趋势

注：数据来源于IEA (International Energy Agency)与中国统计年鉴. 碳排放强度计算以2005年价格为基准进行推算.

Figure 5. Change trend of carbon emissions and emission intensity in China from 2000 to 2018

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图 6 不同情景下农村居民生活碳排放量

Figure 6. Rural household carbon emissions household under different scenarios

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表 1 不同品类化石能源碳排放系数^[34-35]

Table 1. Carbon emission coefficient of different types of fossil energy^[34-35]

化石能源种类	燃料含碳量(以C计)/(t/TJ)	平均低位发热量/[PJ/(10⁴ t)]	碳排放系数(以CO₂计)/[10⁴ t/(10⁴ t)]
原煤	26.32	0.21	2.017 8
型煤	26.32	0.16	1.535 4
焦炉煤气	21.49	1.61	12.686 3
其他洗煤	26.32	0.08	0.807 1
焦炭	29.5	0.28	3.075 7
其他煤气	12.1	0.16	0.723 5
汽油	18.9	0.43	2.984 8
煤油	19.6	0.43	3.095 3
柴油	20.2	0.43	3.157 1
液化石油气	17.2	0.47	2.983 1
天然气¹⁾	15.3	3.89	21.840 3
注：1) 天然气的平均低位发热量和碳排放系数单位均为10⁸ m³.

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表 2 不同年份电力碳排放系数

Table 2. Carbon emission coefficient of electricity in different years

时间	碳排放系数/[kg/(kW·h)]	时间	碳排放系数/[kg/(kW·h)]
2000—2005年	1.02	2011年	0.92
2006年	1.01	2012年	0.95
2007年	0.96	2013年	0.92
2008年	0.97	2014年	0.87
2009年	0.97	2015年	0.85
2010年	0.93	2016—2018年	0.84

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表 3 2030年农村居民生活能源消费结构情景

Table 3. The energy consumption structure scenarios of rural residents in 2030

项目	年份	能源需求总量(以标煤计)/[10⁸ t]	能源结构/%
项目	年份	能源需求总量(以标煤计)/[10⁸ t]	煤炭	石油	天然气	电力	其他
现状	2018	—	30.0	21.0	0.3	33.0	15.0
基准情景	2025	2.06	25.0	19.0	0.5	35.5	20.0
基准情景	2030	2.32	20.0	14.0	1.0	40.0	25.0
政策情景	2025	2.06	20.0	19.0	1.0	35.0	25.0
政策情景	2030	2.32	15.0	8.0	2.0	40.0	35.0
优化情景	2025	2.06	15.0	18.0	2.0	35.0	30.0
优化情景	2030	2.32	10.0	7.0	3.0	40.0	40.0

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