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中国道路交通二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

黄志辉 纪亮 尹洁 吕晨 王军方 尹航 丁焰 蔡博峰 严刚

黄志辉, 纪亮, 尹洁, 吕晨, 王军方, 尹航, 丁焰, 蔡博峰, 严刚. 中国道路交通二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究[J]. 环境科学研究, 2022, 35(2): 385-393. doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.06
引用本文: 黄志辉, 纪亮, 尹洁, 吕晨, 王军方, 尹航, 丁焰, 蔡博峰, 严刚. 中国道路交通二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究[J]. 环境科学研究, 2022, 35(2): 385-393. doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.06
HUANG Zhihui, JI Liang, YIN Jie, LÜ Chen, WANG Junfang, YIN Hang, DING Yan, CAI Bofeng, YAN Gang. Peak Pathway of China′s Road Traffic Carbon Emissions[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2022, 35(2): 385-393. doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.06
Citation: HUANG Zhihui, JI Liang, YIN Jie, LÜ Chen, WANG Junfang, YIN Hang, DING Yan, CAI Bofeng, YAN Gang. Peak Pathway of China′s Road Traffic Carbon Emissions[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2022, 35(2): 385-393. doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.06

中国道路交通二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.06
基金项目: 中国工程院咨询研究项目“江西碳达峰与碳中和模式与实现路径研究”(No.2021-01JXZD-06);国家自然科学基金项目(No.72074154);移动源污染排放控制技术国家工程实验室开放基金资助项目(No.NELMS2019A05)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    黄志辉(1982-),男,江西南丰人,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事移动源排放清单及污染防治政策研究,huangzhihui@vecc.org.cn

    通讯作者:

    ①吕晨(1994-),男,山东济南人,硕士,主要从事温室气体排放核算研究,lvchen@caep.org.cn

    ②王军方(1979-),女,河南安阳人,正高级工程师,博士,主要从事移动源排放清单及污染防治政策研究,wangjf@vecc.org.cn

  • 中图分类号: X511

Peak Pathway of China′s Road Traffic Carbon Emissions

Funds: Strategic Research and Consulting Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering (No.2021-HYZD-06); National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.72074154); National Engineering Laboratory for Mobile Source Emission Control Technology, China (No.NELMS2019A05)
  • 摘要: 为研究我国道路交通行业CO2排放未来控制路径,结合未来经济社会和货物运输发展状况、运输结构、能源结构和能效结构变化,采用行驶里程法分析了我国道路交通CO2排放现状、未来变化趋势及主要驱动因素. 结果表明:①采用行驶里程法计算道路交通行业CO2排放量相对合理,2019年全国汽车CO2排放量为9.52×108 t,比油耗法所得结果高20%左右,二者存在差异的主要原因为交通油耗统计数据偏低. ②从车型看,重型货车和小型客车是汽车CO2排放的主要来源,分别占39.7%、38.2%;从燃料种类看,汽油、柴油、其他燃料(天然气、醇类燃料等)CO2排放量分别占42.8%、52.5%、4.7%. ③道路交通CO2排放预计于“十五五”末达峰,峰值在12.2×108~13.9×108 t之间,达峰后有2~3年的平台期. ④推广新能源车是道路交通CO2排放控制的主要驱动因素,其次为能效提升,运输结构调整在前期有一定的贡献,2025年上述措施对道路交通CO2减排量占比分别为56%、34%和10%左右,2030年分别为55%、40%和5%左右. 研究显示,加大新能源汽车推广力度,持续降低新生产燃油车碳排放强度,推进运输结构调整,可有效降低道路交通CO2排放.

     

  • 图  1  汽车CO2排放达峰路径研究的技术路线

    Figure  1.  Approach frameworkof vehicle CO2 emission peak path research

    图  2  高增长情景和低增长情景下未来公路货运量的变化

    Figure  2.  Changes of future highway freight volume under high and low growth scenarios

    图  3  各车型汽车存活曲线

    Figure  3.  Survival curves of various vehicle types

    图  4  各车型汽车CO2排放系数

    Figure  4.  Carbon dioxide emission coefficient of various vehicle types

    图  5  我国汽车CO2排放构成

    Figure  5.  The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles in China

    图  6  我国汽车保有量预测

    Figure  6.  The prediction of vehicle ownership in China

    图  7  2019—2035年汽车CO2排放变化趋势

    Figure  7.  The trends of carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles in 2019-2035

    图  8  不同因素对汽车CO2减排效果动态评估

    Figure  8.  Dynamic evaluation of vehicle CO2 emission mitigation effect of different factors

    表  1  经济社会关键指标选取

    Table  1.   Selection of key economic and social indicators

    年份人口/人未来GDP/美元GDP年均增速人均GDP/美元
    202514.25×10819.2×1012(18.7×1012~19.2×1012)5.5%(5.0%~5.5%)1.35×104(1.31×104~1.35×104)
    2030约14.3×10824.5×1012(24.3×1012~24.8×1012)5.0%(4.8%~5.2%)1.72×104(1.70×104~1.73×104)
    2035约14.3×10830.1×1012(29.7×1012~30.6×1012)4.2%(3.9%~4.5%)2.10×104(2.08×104~2.15×104)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  汽车行业未来情景方案设置

    Table  2.   Setting up future scenarios for the automotive industry

    情景设置需求措施
    高增长强化
    措施情景
    保有量高增长 高铁路水路运输结构,高新能源车销售占比,高燃油车CO2降低比例
    高增长常规
    措施情景
    保有量高增长 低铁路水路运输结构,低新能源车销售占比,低燃油车CO2降低比例
    低增长强化
    措施情景
    保有量低增长 高铁路水路运输结构,高新能源车销售占比,高燃油车CO2降低比例
    低增长常规
    措施情景
    保有量低增长 低铁路水路运输结构,低新能源车销售占比,低燃油车CO2降低比例
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  未来运输结构调整情况

    Table  3.   Adjustment of transportation structure in the future

    车辆类型措施情景货运量调整量/t
    2025年2030年2035年
    低运输结构公转铁6.5×1089×1085×108
    公转水2×1088×1086×108
    高运输结构公转铁15×1089×1085×108
    公转水20×1088×1086×108
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  未来新能源汽车销售占比情况

    Table  4.   Proportion of new energy vehicle sales in the future

    车辆类型措施情景新能源车销量占比/%
    2025年2030年2035年
    乘用车常规措施203050
    强化措施204060
    出租车常规/强化措施559595
    公交车常规/强化措施809595
    中大型客车常规措施61015
    强化措施102030
    微轻型货车常规措施101520
    强化措施152030
    中重型货车常规措施6810
    强化措施61015
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  燃油车CO2排放降低比例

    Table  5.   Proportion of carbon dioxide emission reduction for internal combustion engine vehicles

    车辆类型措施情景燃油车CO2排放降低比例/%
    2025年2030年2035年
    乘用车常规/强化措施92134
    商用客车常规措施101520
    强化措施101825
    商用货车常规措施81015
    强化措施101825
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  不同因素对汽车CO2排放影响的计算原则

    Table  6.   Estimation principle of the effect of different factors on vehicle CO2 emission

    序号影响因素碳排放影响测算原则
    1 运输结构
    调整
    新能源车销售占比、燃油车排放因子保持2019年状态不变,大宗货物“公转铁”“公转水”对CO2排放的影响
    2 新能源乘
    用车推广
    无运输结构调整,新能源商用车销售占比、燃油车排放因子保持2019年状态不变,新能源乘用车推广对CO2排放的影响
    3 新能源商
    用车推广
    无运输结构调整,新能源乘用车销售占比、燃油车排放因子保持2019年状态不变,新能源商用车推广对CO2排放的影响
    4 燃油乘用
    车降碳
    无运输结构调整,新能源销售占比、燃油商用车排放因子保持2019年状态不变,燃油乘用车降碳技术对CO2排放的影响
    5 燃油商用
    车降碳
    无运输结构调整,新能源销售占比、燃油乘用车排放因子保持2019年状态不变,燃油商用车降碳技术对CO2排放的影响
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-09-06
  • 修回日期:  2021-11-05
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-03-07

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