中国道路交通二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

黄志辉; 纪亮; 尹洁; 吕晨; 王军方; 尹航; 丁焰; 蔡博峰; 严刚

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.06

中国道路交通二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.06

黄志辉^1,,
纪亮¹,
尹洁¹,
吕晨^2, ,,
王军方^1, ,,
尹航¹,
丁焰¹,
蔡博峰²,
严刚³

1.
中国环境科学研究院，国家环境保护机动车污染控制与模拟重点实验室，北京　100012
2.
生态环境部环境规划院碳达峰碳中和研究中心，北京　100012
3.
生态环境部环境规划院，北京　100012

基金项目: 中国工程院咨询研究项目“江西碳达峰与碳中和模式与实现路径研究”(No.2021-01JXZD-06)；国家自然科学基金项目(No.72074154)；移动源污染排放控制技术国家工程实验室开放基金资助项目(No.NELMS2019A05)

详细信息

作者简介:
黄志辉（1982-），男，江西南丰人，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事移动源排放清单及污染防治政策研究，huangzhihui@vecc.org.cn

通讯作者:
①吕晨(1994-)，男，山东济南人，硕士，主要从事温室气体排放核算研究，lvchen@caep.org.cn

②王军方(1979-)，女，河南安阳人，正高级工程师，博士，主要从事移动源排放清单及污染防治政策研究，wangjf@vecc.org.cn

中图分类号: X511
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-09-06
- 修回日期: 2021-11-05
- 网络出版日期: 2022-03-07

Peak Pathway of China′s Road Traffic Carbon Emissions

HUANG Zhihui^1
,,
JI Liang¹,
YIN Jie¹,
LÜ Chen^{2
, ,},
WANG Junfang^{1
, ,},
YIN Hang¹,
DING Yan¹,
CAI Bofeng²,
YAN Gang³

1.
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Vehicle Emission Control and Simulation, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
2.
Center for Carbon Neutrality, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China
3.
Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China

Funds: Strategic Research and Consulting Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering (No.2021-HYZD-06)； National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.72074154)； National Engineering Laboratory for Mobile Source Emission Control Technology， China (No.NELMS2019A05)

摘要

摘要: 为研究我国道路交通行业CO₂排放未来控制路径，结合未来经济社会和货物运输发展状况、运输结构、能源结构和能效结构变化，采用行驶里程法分析了我国道路交通CO₂排放现状、未来变化趋势及主要驱动因素. 结果表明：①采用行驶里程法计算道路交通行业CO₂排放量相对合理，2019年全国汽车CO₂排放量为9.52×10⁸ t，比油耗法所得结果高20%左右，二者存在差异的主要原因为交通油耗统计数据偏低. ②从车型看，重型货车和小型客车是汽车CO₂排放的主要来源，分别占39.7%、38.2%；从燃料种类看，汽油、柴油、其他燃料(天然气、醇类燃料等)CO₂排放量分别占42.8%、52.5%、4.7%. ③道路交通CO₂排放预计于“十五五”末达峰，峰值在12.2×10⁸～13.9×10⁸ t之间，达峰后有2～3年的平台期. ④推广新能源车是道路交通CO₂排放控制的主要驱动因素，其次为能效提升，运输结构调整在前期有一定的贡献，2025年上述措施对道路交通CO₂减排量占比分别为56%、34%和10%左右，2030年分别为55%、40%和5%左右. 研究显示，加大新能源汽车推广力度，持续降低新生产燃油车碳排放强度，推进运输结构调整，可有效降低道路交通CO₂排放.
- 碳达峰 /
- 道路交通 /
- 碳减排
Abstract: In order to study the future control path of CO₂ emissions from road transportation, the vehicle mileage method is used to analyze the current situation, future change trend and main driving factors of CO₂ emissions from vehicles in China, combined with the future development of economy, society and cargo transportation, the changes of transportation structure, energy structure and energy efficiency structure. The results show that: (1) It is reasonable to use the vehicle mileage method to calculate vehicle CO₂ emissions. In 2019, the national motor vehicle CO₂ emissions calculated by the vehicle mileage method are 9.52×10⁸ t, which is 20% higher than that calculated by the fuel consumption method. The main reason for the difference between the two methods is the low traffic fuel consumption statistics. (2) In terms of vehicle types, heavy trucks and light cars are the main sources of CO₂ emissions, accounting for 39.7% and 38.2%, respectively. In terms of fuel types, vehicles using gasoline, diesel and other fuels (natural gas, alcohol fuels, etc.) account for 42.8%, 52.5% and 4.7% CO₂ emissions, respectively. (3) Motor vehicle CO₂ emissions will reach a peak of 12.2×10⁸-13.9×10⁸ t at the end of the ‘15th Five-Year Plan’, and there will be a plateau period of 2-3 years after reaching the peak. (4) The introduction of new energy vehicles is the main driving factor for vehicle CO₂ emission control, followed by the improvement of energy efficiency, and the adjustment of transportation structure has made a certain contribution in the early stage. The above measures will account for about 56%, 34% and 10% of vehicle CO₂ emission reduction in 2025 and about 55%, 40% and 5% in 2030. According to this research, increasing the promotion of new energy vehicles, continuously reducing the carbon emission intensity of newly produced internal combustion engine vehicles, and promoting the adjustment of transportation structure can effectively reduce vehicle CO₂ emissions.
- peak carbon dioxide emissions /
- road traffic /
- carbon emission reduction

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图 1 汽车CO₂排放达峰路径研究的技术路线

Figure 1. Approach frameworkof vehicle CO₂ emission peak path research

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图 2 高增长情景和低增长情景下未来公路货运量的变化

Figure 2. Changes of future highway freight volume under high and low growth scenarios

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图 3 各车型汽车存活曲线

Figure 3. Survival curves of various vehicle types

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图 4 各车型汽车CO₂排放系数

Figure 4. Carbon dioxide emission coefficient of various vehicle types

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图 5 我国汽车CO₂排放构成

Figure 5. The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles in China

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图 6 我国汽车保有量预测

Figure 6. The prediction of vehicle ownership in China

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图 7 2019—2035年汽车CO₂排放变化趋势

Figure 7. The trends of carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles in 2019-2035

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图 8 不同因素对汽车CO₂减排效果动态评估

Figure 8. Dynamic evaluation of vehicle CO₂ emission mitigation effect of different factors

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表 1 经济社会关键指标选取

Table 1. Selection of key economic and social indicators

年份	人口/人	未来GDP/美元	GDP年均增速	人均GDP/美元
2025	14.25×10⁸	19.2×10¹²(18.7×10¹²~19.2×10¹²)	5.5%(5.0%~5.5%)	1.35×10⁴(1.31×10⁴~1.35×10⁴)
2030	约14.3×10⁸	24.5×10¹²(24.3×10¹²~24.8×10¹²)	5.0%(4.8%~5.2%)	1.72×10⁴(1.70×10⁴~1.73×10⁴)
2035	约14.3×10⁸	30.1×10¹²(29.7×10¹²~30.6×10¹²)	4.2%(3.9%~4.5%)	2.10×10⁴(2.08×10⁴~2.15×10⁴)

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表 2 汽车行业未来情景方案设置

Table 2. Setting up future scenarios for the automotive industry

情景设置	需求	措施
高增长强化措施情景	保有量高增长	高铁路水路运输结构，高新能源车销售占比，高燃油车CO₂降低比例
高增长常规措施情景	保有量高增长	低铁路水路运输结构，低新能源车销售占比，低燃油车CO₂降低比例
低增长强化措施情景	保有量低增长	高铁路水路运输结构，高新能源车销售占比，高燃油车CO₂降低比例
低增长常规措施情景	保有量低增长	低铁路水路运输结构，低新能源车销售占比，低燃油车CO₂降低比例

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表 3 未来运输结构调整情况

Table 3. Adjustment of transportation structure in the future

车辆类型	措施情景	货运量调整量/t
车辆类型	措施情景	2025年	2030年	2035年
低运输结构	公转铁	6.5×10⁸	9×10⁸	5×10⁸
低运输结构	公转水	2×10⁸	8×10⁸	6×10⁸
高运输结构	公转铁	15×10⁸	9×10⁸	5×10⁸
高运输结构	公转水	20×10⁸	8×10⁸	6×10⁸

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表 4 未来新能源汽车销售占比情况

Table 4. Proportion of new energy vehicle sales in the future

车辆类型	措施情景	新能源车销量占比/%
车辆类型	措施情景	2025年	2030年	2035年
乘用车	常规措施	20	30	50
乘用车	强化措施	20	40	60
出租车	常规/强化措施	55	95	95
公交车	常规/强化措施	80	95	95
中大型客车	常规措施	6	10	15
中大型客车	强化措施	10	20	30
微轻型货车	常规措施	10	15	20
微轻型货车	强化措施	15	20	30
中重型货车	常规措施	6	8	10
中重型货车	强化措施	6	10	15

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表 5 燃油车CO₂排放降低比例

Table 5. Proportion of carbon dioxide emission reduction for internal combustion engine vehicles

车辆类型	措施情景	燃油车CO₂排放降低比例/%
车辆类型	措施情景	2025年	2030年	2035年
乘用车	常规/强化措施	9	21	34
商用客车	常规措施	10	15	20
商用客车	强化措施	10	18	25
商用货车	常规措施	8	10	15
商用货车	强化措施	10	18	25

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表 6 不同因素对汽车CO₂排放影响的计算原则

Table 6. Estimation principle of the effect of different factors on vehicle CO₂ emission

序号	影响因素	碳排放影响测算原则
1	运输结构调整	新能源车销售占比、燃油车排放因子保持2019年状态不变，大宗货物“公转铁”“公转水”对CO₂排放的影响
2	新能源乘用车推广	无运输结构调整，新能源商用车销售占比、燃油车排放因子保持2019年状态不变，新能源乘用车推广对CO₂排放的影响
3	新能源商用车推广	无运输结构调整，新能源乘用车销售占比、燃油车排放因子保持2019年状态不变，新能源商用车推广对CO₂排放的影响
4	燃油乘用车降碳	无运输结构调整，新能源销售占比、燃油商用车排放因子保持2019年状态不变，燃油乘用车降碳技术对CO₂排放的影响
5	燃油商用车降碳	无运输结构调整，新能源销售占比、燃油乘用车排放因子保持2019年状态不变，燃油商用车降碳技术对CO₂排放的影响

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