中国钢铁行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

汪旭颖; 李冰; 吕晨; 管志杰; 蔡博峰; 雷宇; 严刚

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.11

中国钢铁行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.11

汪旭颖^1,,
李冰^2, ,,
吕晨¹,
管志杰²,
蔡博峰¹,
雷宇^1, ,,
严刚¹

1.
生态环境部环境规划院, 北京　100012
2.
冶金工业规划研究院, 北京　100013

基金项目: 中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(No.2021-HYZD-14)；国家自然科学基金项目(No.72074154)

详细信息

作者简介:
汪旭颖(1989-)，女，河北唐山人，助理研究员，博士，主要从事排放清单开发、大气环境管理、温室气体与大气污染物协同控制等研究，wangxy@caep.org.cn

通讯作者:
①李冰(1977-)，女，辽宁沈阳人，正高级工程师，硕士，主要从事钢铁行业节能低碳研究，libing@mpi1972.com

②雷宇(1980-)，男，四川攀枝花人，研究员，博士，主要从事大气环境规划、大气环境管理、能源及大气污染控制策略等研究，leiyu@caep.org.cn

中图分类号: X22
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-09-06
- 修回日期: 2021-11-04
- 网络出版日期: 2022-03-07

China′s Iron and Steel Industry Carbon Emissions Peak Pathways

WANG Xuying^1
,,
LI Bing^{2
, ,},
LÜ Chen¹,
GUAN Zhijie²,
CAI Bofeng¹,
LEI Yu^{1
, ,},
YAN Gang¹

1.
Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China
2.
China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, Beijing 100013, China

Funds: Strategic Research and Consulting Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering (No.2021-HYZD-14)； National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.72074154)

摘要

摘要: 钢铁行业是我国重要的CO₂排放源. 作为典型的资源能源密集型产业，钢铁行业加快绿色低碳转型、尽早实现碳达峰并有效降碳，既是行业自身高质量发展的内在需要，也是支撑落实国家碳达峰、碳中和目标的客观要求. 本文综合考虑经济社会发展、资源能源利用、工艺结构调整、低碳技术应用等因素影响，开展了基于情景分析的钢铁行业CO₂排放达峰路径研究，对不同情景下钢铁行业CO₂的排放趋势进行测算，识别钢铁行业CO₂减排的主要驱动因素，判断推动钢铁行业碳排放达峰的关键举措，为制定“双碳”目标背景下钢铁行业CO₂排放控制策略提供参考. 测算结果表明，我国钢铁行业CO₂总排放量有望在2020—2024年期间达到峰值；行业CO₂总排放量峰值为18.1×10⁸~18.5×10⁸ t，达峰后到2030年降幅将超过3×10⁸ t. 研究显示，粗钢产量是决定我国钢铁行业碳排放能否快速达峰的关键，加大废钢资源利用、推进外购电力清洁化以及提高系统能效水平是2030年前钢铁行业实现碳排放达峰并有效降碳的重要途径. 到2030年，粗钢产量降低、加大废钢资源利用、推进外购电力清洁化、提高系统能效水平以及氢能炼钢和二氧化碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)等前沿技术对钢铁行业CO₂减排的贡献率分别为11%~52%、34%~52%、7%~20%、5%~13%和2%~3%.
- 碳达峰 /
- 情景分析 /
- 排放预测 /
- 驱动力 /
- 控制路径
Abstract: The iron and steel industry is an important carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission source in China. As a typical resource and energy-intensive industry, accelerating low-carbon transformation and peaking carbon emissions is not only the high-quality development demand for the industry, but also the objective requirements for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Considering the influence of economic and social development, resource and energy utilization, process structure adjustment, low-carbon technology application and other factors, we carried out an integrated scenario study on CO₂ emission peak path of the iron and steel industry by calculating the CO₂ emission trends of the industry under different scenarios, analyzing the main driving factors of CO₂ emission reduction, and identifying the key measures to promote the carbon emission peak of the iron and steel industry. The research results can provide support for policy making on carbon emission control of the industry under the target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Based on the calculation results of this study, the total CO₂ emissions of the iron and steel industry in China may reach an inflection point in 2020-2024. The peak values of total CO₂ emissions of the industry are about 18.1×10⁸-18.5×10⁸ t. After reaching the peak, the total CO₂ emissions of the industry may decrease by more than 3×10⁸ t by 2030. The assessment results indicate that the production of crude steel is the key factor to determine whether the carbon emissions of China's iron and steel industry can peak quickly. Meanwhile, increasing the utilization of scrap resources, promoting cleanness of purchased electricity, and improving the energy efficiency of the system are important ways for the industry to peak carbon emissions and achieve emission mitigation effectively before 2030. Based on our estimates, by 2030, the contribution of decrease of crude steel production, increasing scrap resource utilization, promoting clean electricity use, improving energy efficiency, and applying cutting-edge low carbon technologies such as H₂-DRI and CCUS will contribute to about 11%-52%, 34%-52%, 7%-20%, 5%-13% and 2%-3% of the CO₂ emission reductions for the industry, respectively.
- peak carbon emissions /
- scenario analysis /
- emission estimation /
- driving force /
- control strategy

HTML全文

图 1 我国钢铁行业达峰路径研究技术路线

Figure 1. Approach framework of the carbon peak pathway study for China's iron and steel industry

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2020年我国钢铁行业CO₂排放构成

Figure 2. Distribution for CO₂ emissions of China's iron and steel industry in 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 不同情景下我国粗钢产量预测结果

Figure 3. Prediction results of crude steel production under different scenarios in China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 不同情景下我国钢铁行业CO₂总排放量变化趋势对比

Figure 4. CO₂ emission trends of the iron and steel industry under different scenarios in China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 不同影响因素对钢铁行业CO₂减排效果的动态评估

Figure 5. Dynamic evaluation results of CO₂ emission mitigation effect of different factors on the iron and steel industry

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 我国粗钢产量预测相关经济社会发展参数取值

Table 1. Assumed values of economic and social development parameters related to crude steel production prediction in China

年份	人口数量/(10⁸人)	GDP增速/%	城镇化率/%
2025	14.25	5.5	65
2030	14.30	5.0	69
2035	14.30	4.2	72

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 钢铁行业碳排放情景设置原则

Table 2. Setting principles of the 8 emission scenarios for the iron and steel industry

钢铁行业碳排放情景	对应产量情景	对应排放控制情景
高需求-一般控排	高需求	一般排放控制
低需求-一般控排	低需求	一般排放控制
高需求-强化控产-一般控排	高需求-强化控产	一般排放控制
低需求-强化控产-一般控排	低需求-强化控产	一般排放控制
高需求-强化控排	高需求	强化排放控制
低需求-强化控排	低需求	强化排放控制
高需求-强化控产-强化控排	高需求-强化控产	强化排放控制
低需求-强化控产-强化控排	低需求-强化控产	强化排放控制

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 不同影响因素对钢铁行业碳排放影响的测算原则

Table 3. Estimation principle on the effect of CO₂ emission mitigations of different factors for the iron and steel industry

影响因素	碳排放影响测算原则
粗钢产量变化	行业排放因子和生产结构均保持2020年状态不变，粗钢产量变化对CO₂排放的影响
加大废钢利用	与保持2020年炼钢废钢比水平相比，加大废钢资源利用、提高电炉钢生产比例对CO₂排放的影响
能效水平提升	与保持2020年能效水平相比，通过优化燃料结构、推进余热余能利用等措施提高行业系统能效水平对CO₂排放的影响
电力清洁化	从外购电角度出发，与保持2020年电力排放绩效水平相比，未来电力清洁低碳化发展对行业CO₂间接排放的影响
氢能炼钢	与无氢能炼钢相比，实施氢能炼钢对行业CO₂排放的影响
CCUS	与无CCUS相比，开展CCUS对行业CO₂排放的影响

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