中国建筑领域CO<sub>2</sub>排放达峰路径研究

袁闪闪; 陈潇君; 杜艳春; 曲世琳; 胡楚梅; 金玲; 徐伟; 严刚

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.12

中国建筑领域CO₂排放达峰路径研究

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.12

袁闪闪^1,,
陈潇君²,
杜艳春^2, ,,
曲世琳^1, ,,
胡楚梅¹,
金玲²,
徐伟¹,
严刚²

1.
中国建筑科学研究院有限公司，北京　100013
2.
生态环境部环境规划院，北京　100012

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(No.72074154)；住房和城乡建设部科学技术项目(No.2019-Z-006)

详细信息

作者简介:
袁闪闪(1986-)，女，河北石家庄人，副研究员，博士，主要从事清洁供暖、建筑节能、绿色建筑研究，yuanshanshan133@126.com

通讯作者:
①杜艳春(1985-)，女，山东泰安人，助理研究员，博士，主要从事环境政策、环境管理研究，duyc@caep.org.cn

②曲世琳(1978-)，女，黑龙江海伦人，副教授，博士，主要从事建筑节能研究，q.shilin@163.com

中图分类号: X32
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-09-07
- 修回日期: 2021-11-06
- 网络出版日期: 2022-03-07

Pathway of Carbon Emission Peak of China's Building Sector

YUAN Shanshan^1
,,
CHEN Xiaojun²,
DU Yanchun^{2
, ,},
QU Shilin^{1
, ,},
HU Chumei¹,
JIN Ling²,
XU Wei¹,
YAN Gang²

1.
China Academy of Building Research, Beijing 100013, China
2.
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.72074154); Science and Technology Project of Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, China (No.2019-Z-006)

摘要

摘要: 实施建筑领域CO₂排放控制是推动我国2030年前实现碳排放达峰的关键举措. 2020年我国建筑领域运行阶段CO₂排放量为21.7×10⁸ t，约占全国能源活动碳排放量的20%，其中直接排放6.9×10⁸ t，间接排放14.8×10⁸ t. 随着城镇化发展水平和居民生活消费水平的不断提升，建筑领域CO₂排放仍呈刚性增长态势. 为明确建筑领域CO₂排放达峰路径，综合考虑建筑领域发展现状和用能情况，以建筑运行中供暖、炊事等活动所需一次能源(煤炭、石油和天然气)消耗直接排放以及热电联产供暖、空调、照明、电梯、电器等外购热力和电力间接排放为核算范围，在预测不同阶段建筑发展规模、建筑能源消费、用能结构的基础上，分析未来碳排放变化趋势和达峰时间，提出达峰路径和重要政策举措. 结果表明：①2010—2020年，我国建筑领域CO₂排放量从13.2×10⁸ t增至21.7×10⁸ t，其中直接排放已于2017年达峰，间接排放仍在持续增长. ②从建筑规模和节能降碳措施等角度分情景开展建筑领域碳排放达峰路径研究，预测建筑领域CO₂排放将在2029—2030年左右达峰，峰值排放量为28.1×10⁸~29.2×10⁸ t，达峰后有2~3年的平台期. ③低碳清洁取暖、可再生能源应用、建筑节能改造和合理控制建筑规模4项措施是建筑领域实现碳排放达峰的重要举措，4项措施的减排贡献率分别达到40.7%、27.1%、17.7%和14.5%. 研究显示，2030年前，发展建筑可再生能源、强化建筑节能、合力控制建筑规模是建筑领域降碳的核心举措，而推动低碳清洁取暖是实现我国建筑领域降碳最主要的控制途径.
- 建筑领域 /
- CO₂排放 /
- 达峰路径 /
- 情景分析 /
- 建筑节能
Abstract: The implementation of carbon dioxide emission control in the building sector is a key measure to promote China's carbon emission peak by 2030. In 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions during the building operation phase were 2.17 billion tons, accounting for about 20% of China's total carbon dioxide emissions from energy activities, including 690 million tons of direct emissions and 1.48 billion tons of indirect emissions. With the acceleration of urbanization and increase in household consumption, indirect carbon emissions from building sector will continue to grow. In order to clarify the path of peaking carbon emissions of building sector, the current development status and energy use in the building sector are proposed in the paper. Carbon emissions accounting boundary in building sector is defined in this study, which is divided into indirect emissions and direct emissions two parts. Direct emissions are defined as carbon emissions from primary energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) consumed in heating, cooking and other activities in building operation phase. Indirect emissions are defined as carbon emissions from the total outsourcing heat and power in building operation phase such as cogeneration heating, air conditioning, lighting, elevators and electrical appliances etc. This paper first proposes three key parameters related to the carbon emission predication: construction scale, energy consumption and energy construction. Then, article gives the main conclusions, including the time to CO₂ peak, peaking pathway and necessary policy measures. The results show that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions during the building operation phase increase from 1.32 billion to 2.17 billion tons. Direct emissions reach a peak in 2017 and indirect emissions increase year by year. (2) Considering different building area and energy consumption in building sector, four analysis scenarios are proposed. Under different scenarios, the carbon emissions from building sector will peak around 2029-2030, with the peak emissions in the range of 2.81 billion to 2.92 billion tons, followed by a 2-3 year plateau period. (3) Low carbon and clean heating, renewable energy application, building energy saving renovation and moderate control of building area are the four important measures to achieve the peak of carbon emissions in the building sector. The contributions of the four measures are 40.7%, 27.1%, 17.7% and 14.5%, respectively. The research shows that developing the application of renewable energy in building sector, strengthening building energy conservation and controlling building scale are the core measures to reduce carbon emissions in the construction field before 2030. Promoting low-carbon and clean heating is the most prominent way to reduce carbon emissions in China's construction sector.
- building sector /
- carbon emission /
- peaking path /
- scenario analysis /
- building energy efficiency

HTML全文

图 1 建筑领域CO₂排放达峰技术路线

Figure 1. Approach framework of carbon emission peak in building sector

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图 2 我国与德国、法国、日本等发达国家人均住宅面积与人均GDP对比

Figure 2. Comparison of per capita housing area and per capita GDP between China and developed countries such as Germany, France and Japan

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图 3 2010—2020年我国建筑领域CO₂排放趋势

Figure 3. CO₂ emissions of building sector from 2010 to 2020 in China

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图 4 不同情景下2025年、2030年、2035年我国建筑规模预测结果

Figure 4. Prediction results of construction scale of building sector in 2025, 2030 and 2035 under different scenarios in China

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图 5 不同情景下2025年、2030年、2035年我国建筑领域能源消费量预测结果

Figure 5. Prediction results of energy consumption of building sector in 2025, 2030 and 2035 under different scenarios in China

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图 6 不同情景下2025年、2030年、2035年我国用能结构预测

Figure 6. Prediction results of energy structure in 2025, 2030 and 2035 under different scenarios in China

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图 7 不同情景下我国建筑领域碳排放变化趋势

Figure 7. CO₂ emission trends of the building sector under different scenarios in China

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图 8 2021—2035年我国建筑领域主要措施的CO₂减排贡献

Figure 8. The contribution rate of main emission reduction measures in building sector from 2021 to 2035 in China

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表 1 我国建筑规模人口和城镇化影响因素的预测结果

Table 1. Assumed values of population and urbanization rate parameters related to construction scale prediction in China

年份	人口数量/ (10⁸人)	城镇化率/%	城镇人口数量/(10⁸人)	农村人口数量/(10⁸人)
2025	14.25	65.5	9.33	4.92
2030	约14.3	69.0	9.9	4.4
2035	约14.3	72.0	10.3	4.0

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表 2 建筑用能强度不同情景条件设置

Table 2. Parameter values of building energy efficiency (I) under the two different scenarios

情景设置	节能措施
常规节能	新建建筑节能水平	以2020年不同类型新建建筑节能标准水平为基准，每10年分别提升30%
常规节能	既有建筑节能改造面积	城镇居住建筑节能改造1.7×10⁸ m²/a，城镇公共建筑节能改造1.9×10⁸ m²/a，农村建筑节能改造0.34×10⁸ m²/a
强化节能	新建建筑节能水平	以2020年不同类型新建建筑节能标准水平为基准，每5年分别提升30%
强化节能	既有建筑节能改造面积	城镇居住建筑节能改造2×10⁸ m²/a，城镇公共建筑节能改造2.2×10⁸ m²/a，农村建筑节能改造0.4×10⁸ m²/a
统一考虑因素	新建超低能耗建筑面积	“十四五”“十五五”“十六五”新增城镇居住建筑中超低能耗建筑面积分别为1×10⁸、4×10⁸、20×10⁸ m²，公共建筑中超低能耗建筑面积分别为0.2×10⁸、1×10⁸、5×10⁸ m²
	既有建筑节能水平	2035年前老旧管网、城镇居住建筑、城镇公共建筑、农村建筑改造后节能水平较2020年分别提升20%、50%、20%、15%
	生活水平提升带来用能需求增长	2020—2035年生活水平提升带来城镇居住建筑用能需求，“十四五”期间提升50%， “十五五”期间提升40%，“十六五”期间提升20%；城镇公共建筑用能需求，“十四五”期间提升40%，“十五五”期间提升30%， “十六五”期间提升15%；农村建筑用能需求，“十四五”期间提升40%，“十五五”期间提升30%，“十六五”期间提升15%

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