中国铝冶炼行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

王丽娟; 邵朱强; 熊慧; 李丹; 杨富强; 严刚

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.18

中国铝冶炼行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.18

王丽娟^1,,
邵朱强^2, ,,
熊慧³,
李丹^4, ,,
杨富强³,
严刚¹

1.
生态环境部环境规划院, 北京　100012
2.
中国有色金属工业技术开发交流中心有限公司, 北京　100814
3.
北京安泰科信息股份有限公司, 北京　100814
4.
中国有色金属工业协会, 北京　100814

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(No.72140008)；中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(No.2021-HYZD-14)；国家自然科学基金项目(No.72074154)

详细信息

作者简介:
王丽娟(1983-)，女，山东滨州人，副研究员，博士，主要从事大气环境、碳达峰碳中和研究，wanglj@caep.org.cn

通讯作者:
①邵朱强(1981-)，男，山东成武人，高级工程师，主要从事有色金属节能环保、低碳研究，13683331089@126.com

②李丹(1985-)，女，河北廊坊人，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事有色金属节能环保、低碳研究，feir8510@126.com

中图分类号: X24
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-09-06
- 修回日期: 2021-11-05
- 网络出版日期: 2022-03-07

Pathway of Carbon Emissions Peak of Aluminum Industry

WANG Lijuan^1
,,
SHAO Zhuqiang^{2
, ,},
XIONG Hui³,
LI Dan^{4
, ,},
YANG Fuqiang³,
YAN Gang¹

1.
Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China
2.
China Nonferrous Metal Industry Technological Development Exchange Center, Beijing 100814, China
3.
Beijing Antaike Information Co., Ltd., Beijing 100814, China
4.
China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association, Beijing 100814, China

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.72140008)； Strategic Research and Consulting Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering (No.2021-HYZD-14)； National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.72074154)

摘要

摘要: 铝冶炼行业是高耗能、高排放行业，也是有色金属行业中CO₂排放量最大的领域，在全国2030年碳达峰背景下，铝冶炼行业将面临巨大的减排压力. 统筹考虑社会经济发展、能源结构、工艺结构、技术进步、进出口影响等因素，采用回归分析和情景分析等方法，对2021—2035年我国铝冶炼行业碳排放趋势及影响因素进行分析，识别碳减排的主要驱动因素，提出推动碳达峰的关键举措，为制定碳达峰目标背景下的铝冶炼行业碳排放控制路径提供参考. 结果表明：①实现铝冶炼行业碳达峰任务艰巨，在严格落实电解铝产能总量控制以及多项措施实施的前提下，预计可实现铝冶炼行业“十四五”末期至“十五五”初期达峰，峰值在5.3×10⁸~6.4×10⁸ t之间，达峰后保持2年左右平台期，产能控制是削峰的关键. ②提高再生铝利用水平是决定铝冶炼行业能否快速达峰的关键，到2030年其对行业碳减排的贡献率为77.3%. ③推进清洁能源替代，鼓励电解铝产能向可再生电力富集地区转移是铝冶炼行业碳减排的重要手段，到2030年其对行业碳减排的贡献率为21.5%. ④提高短流程比例也是铝冶炼行业碳减排的重要方向，到2030年其对行业碳减排的贡献率为1.2%. 研究显示，铝冶炼行业碳减排工作重点聚焦于推进严控产能总量、调整优化产业结构、加强清洁能源替代、强化技术降碳等方面.
- 铝冶炼行业 /
- CO₂排放 /
- 碳达峰 /
- 情景分析 /
- 控制路径
Abstract: The aluminum industry is one of the high-energy consuming and high-emission industries, and it is also the largest CO₂ emission industry in the non-ferrous metal industry. Under the background of peaking CO₂ emissions in 2030, the aluminum industry faces tremendous pressure to reduce CO₂ emissions. In order to explore the path to carbon peak of China′s aluminum smelting industry, and to provide technical supports to formulate the carbon emissions control roadmap of the aluminum smelting industry, this paper used regression analysis and scenario analysis to analyze the carbon emissions trends and the influencing factors of China′s aluminum industry from 2021 to 2035, taking into account the factors such as socio-economic development, the energy structure, the manufacturing process structure, technological progress, and the import and export impacts. The research will provide support for policy making on carbon emissions control to achieve the targets of carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality. The results showed that: (1) The carbon emissions from the aluminum industry will peak around 2025 by taking active measures, and the peak target is 5.3×10⁸- 6.4×10⁸ t. (2) It is crucial to speed up the construction of the waste aluminum resource classification and recycling system, and to promote the utilization of secondary aluminum for carbon emissions peaking in the aluminum Industry. By 2030, increasing the utilization of secondary aluminum will account for 77.3% of CO₂ emissions reductions. (3) About 75% of the CO₂ emissions in electrolytic aluminum industry come from indirect emissions from electricity consumption. Encouraging the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production to renewable electricity-rich areas is an important means for the aluminum industry to reduce carbon emissions. By 2030, the contribution of clean electricity will account for 21.5% of CO₂ emissions reductions. (4) It is also important to reduce direct emissions by improving the anode quality and optimizing the industrial structure. Strategies to reduce carbon emissions in China′s aluminum industry are suggested, including promoting clean energy substitution, strictly controlling total production capacity, adjusting and optimizing industrial structure, and strengthening technical skills.
- aluminum industry /
- CO₂ emissions /
- carbon emissions peaking /
- scenario analysis /
- control strategies

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图 1 技术路线

Figure 1. Technology framework

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图 2 铝冶炼行业碳排放流程

注：括号中数值代表铝冶炼不同阶段CO₂排放量占铝冶炼行业总排放量的比例.

Figure 2. Carbon emission flow chart in aluminum industry

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图 3 我国铝消费结构

Figure 3. Domestic aluminum consumption structure

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图 4 2010—2035年不同情景下我国铝需求量

Figure 4. Aluminum production from 2010 to 2035 under different scenarios in China

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图 5 2010—2035年我国铝冶炼行业不同情景下CO₂排放量

Figure 5. CO₂ emission trends of the aluminum industry under different scenarios in China

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表 1 铝冶炼行业不同措施设计原则

Table 1. Estimation principle on the effect of CO₂ emission mitigations in aluminum industry for different factors

措施	设计原则
提高再生铝利用率	铝需求量不变，提高再生铝利用量，替代电解铝生产量
提高清洁能源使用比例	铝需求量不变，通过网电替换自备电，增加清洁能源使用量，降低自备电使用量
提高短流程比例	铝需求量不变，通过提高铝冶炼行业短流程比例，提高行业能源效率

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表 2 铝冶炼行业碳排放类型、定义及应用范围

Table 2. Types, definitions and application scope of carbon emissions from the aluminum industry

碳排放类型	定义	应用范围
燃料燃烧排放	煤炭、燃气、柴油等燃料在各种类型的固定或移动燃烧设备 (如锅炉、窑炉、内燃机等)中与氧气充分燃烧产生的CO₂排放	氧化铝生产过程中煤气/天然气；再生铝生产过程中天然气消耗排放
能源作为原材料用途的排放	能源作为原材料被消耗，发生物理或化学变化而产生的温室气体排放	电解铝电解过程中碳阳极消耗排放
过程排放	工业生产中，除能源之外的原材料发生化学反应造成的温室气体排放	—
净购入电力产生的排放	企业净购入的电力、热力(蒸汽、热水)消费所对应的电力或热力生产环节产生的CO₂排放	铝电解及其他过程中的电力消耗排放；氧化铝生产过程中电力/热力消耗排放

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表 3 2020年我国铝冶炼行业CO₂排放量

Table 3. CO₂ emissions from the aluminum 　　industry in 2020 in China 10⁸ t

排放环节	电力排放	一次能源排放	碳阳极排放	合计
电解铝	3.70	—	0.50	4.20
氧化铝	0.10	0.70	—	0.80
再生铝	—	0.01	—	0.01
总计	3.80	0.71	0.50	5.01

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表 4 碳排放控制关键措施参数取值

Table 4. Parameter values of key measures for carbon emission 　　control in the aluminum industry %

年份	清洁能源使用比例	再生铝利用率	短流程比例
2020	37	17	70
2025	41	22	91
2030	50	34	95
2035	55	40	95

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表 5 不同因素对铝冶炼行业碳减排贡献率

Table 5. Impact of different factors on carbon emission reduction in aluminum industry

年份	CO₂减排量贡献率/%
年份	提高再生铝利用率	提高清洁能源使用比例	提高短流程比例
2025	74.4	23.2	2.4
2030	77.3	21.5	1.2
2035	79.2	19.9	0.9

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