中国水泥行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

贺晋瑜; 何捷; 王郁涛; 范永斌; 石红卫; 蔡博峰; 严刚

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.19

中国水泥行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.19

贺晋瑜^1,,
何捷^2, ,,
王郁涛^3, ,,
范永斌³,
石红卫⁴,
蔡博峰¹,
严刚¹

1.
生态环境部环境规划院，北京　100012
2.
中国建筑材料科学研究总院有限公司，北京　100024
3.
中国水泥协会，北京　100073
4.
中国建材联合会，北京　100037

基金项目: 中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(No.2021-HYZD-14)；国家自然科学基金项目(No.72074154)

详细信息

作者简介:
贺晋瑜(1985-)，女，山西太原人，副研究员，硕士，主要从事大气环境规划与政策研究，hejy@caep.org.cn

通讯作者:
①何捷(1969-)，女，湖北麻城人，正高级工程师，主要从事建筑材料污染控制与资源化利用研究，hejie2007@139.com

②王郁涛(1960-)，男，北京人，正高级工程师，主要从事水泥工业技术发展研究，wyt2989@163.com

中图分类号: X24
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-09-08
- 修回日期: 2021-11-03
- 网络出版日期: 2022-03-07

Pathway of Carbon Emissions Peak for Cement Industry in China

HE Jinyu^1
,,
HE Jie^{2
, ,},
WANG Yutao^{3
, ,},
FAN Yongbin³,
SHI Hongwei⁴,
CAI Bofeng¹,
YAN Gang¹

1.
Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China
2.
China Building Materials Academy, Beijing 100024, China
3.
China Cement Association, Beijing 100073, China
4.
China Building Materials Federation, Beijing 100037, China

Funds: Strategic Research and Consulting Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering (No.2021-HYZD-14)；National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.72074154)

摘要

摘要: 水泥行业是主要的CO₂排放行业，2020年我国水泥行业CO₂排放占全国排放总量的12%，占全国工业过程排放的60%以上. 为开展水泥行业碳达峰路径研究，提出了基于社会、经济等影响因素的多因素拟合分析模型以及基于主要下游产业的需求预测方法，对2021—2035年我国水泥熟料及水泥产量进行预测；并通过对水泥行业碳排放特征的分析，考虑主要控制措施的可行性，构建我国水泥行业CO₂排放情景，对2021—2035年水泥行业CO₂排放趋势进行测算，在此基础上分析水泥行业碳达峰路径及相关政策建议. 结果表明：①中国水泥熟料消费量在“十四五”期间仍有一定上升空间，随着经济社会的绿色转型，水泥市场需求在“十五五”时期下降. ②在此基础上，通过全面加强产能控制、加大落后产能淘汰力度、推广高效节能技术、积极推进原燃料替代，可推动水泥行业碳排放于“十四五”中期达峰，峰值为13.8×10⁸～14.2×10⁸ t，经过2～3年的峰值平台期后呈持续下降趋势，2030年水泥行业碳排放量将较2020年下降15%~18%. ③2030年，水泥熟料及水泥产量的下降将带动水泥行业碳排放量较2020年减少1.4×10⁸ t. 在各项技术措施中，节能改造是CO₂减排潜力最大的措施，2030年能效提升可带动水泥行业CO₂排放量较2020年减少0.38×10⁸ t；其次是利用固体废物替代燃煤，可带动行业CO₂排放量较2020年减少0.17×10⁸ t. 研究显示，推动我国水泥行业碳达峰及碳减排，需在加强产量控制避免水泥过度消费的基础上，聚焦节能改造和原燃料替代措施.
- 水泥行业 /
- CO₂ /
- 达峰路径 /
- 情景分析
Abstract: The cement industry is one of the major CO₂ emission industries. CO₂ emissions of cement industry accounted for 12% of the total national emissions in China and over 60% of the national industrial process emissions. In order to study the pathway of carbon emissions peak of China′s cement industry, a multi-factor fitting analysis model based on social and economic factors and a demand forecasting method based on major downstream industries were proposed. The output of cement clinker and cement in China from 2021 to 2035 were predicted using the above methods. Based on the carbon emission characteristics of cement industry and considering the feasibility of main control measures, the CO₂ emission scenarios of China′s cement industry were designed. The CO₂ emissions of cement industry were calculated under different scenarios from 2021 to 2035. On this basis, the pathway of CO₂ emissions peak for cement industry and relevant policy suggestions were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The consumption of cement clinker in China will have some upside during the ‘14th Five-Year Plan’ period. With the green transformation of economy and society, the demand of cement will decline during the ‘15th Five-Year Plan’ period. (2) On this basis, the carbon emissions of the cement industry will reach its peak in the middle of the ‘14th Five-Year Plan’ by strengthening capacity control, shutting down outdated capacity, promoting efficient and energy-saving technologies, and promoting the replacement of raw and fuel, and the peak value is 13.8×10⁸-14.2×10⁸ t. After a peak plateau period of 2-3 years, the carbon emissions will continue to decline. CO₂ emissions of the cement industry will be reduced by 15%-18% by 2030 compared to 2020. (3) Only taking into account the changes of cement clinker and cement production, in 2030 CO₂ emissions of the cement industry will be reduced by 1.4×10⁸ t compared to 2020. Among the technical measures, energy conservation renovation is the biggest one to reduce CO₂ emissions. By 2030, the promotion of energy efficiency can reduce CO₂ emissions by about 0.38×10⁸ t compared to 2020. Secondly, replacing coal with solid waste can reduce CO₂ emissions by 0.17×10⁸ t compared to 2020. The research shows that to promote cement industry carbon peak and emissions reduction in China, it is necessary to focus on the measures of energy saving, fuel substitution and raw material substitution based on strengthening production control and avoiding excessive consumption of cement.
- cement industry /
- CO₂ /
- pathway of carbon emissions peak /
- scenario analysis

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图 1 我国水泥行业碳达峰路径研究框架

Figure 1. Framework for carbon peak pathway in cement industry in China

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图 2 2010—2020年我国水泥与水泥熟料产量

Figure 2. Production of cement and cement clinker from 2010 to 2020 in China

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图 3 我国不同规模水泥熟料新型干法生产线产能占比

Figure 3. Capacity proportion of different scale new dry cement clinker production lines in China

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图 4 2010—2020年我国水泥行业CO₂排放情况

Figure 4. CO₂ emissions of cement industry from 2010 to 2020 in China

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图 5 我国水泥熟料和水泥产量预测

Figure 5. Prediction of cement clinker and cement outputs in China

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图 6 水泥行业单位产品能耗分析

Figure 6. Analysis of energy consumption per unit product in cement industry

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图 7 不同情景下我国CO₂排放量变化趋势

Figure 7. Trends of CO₂ emissions under different scenarios in China

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图 8 2021—2035年不同情景下我国工业过程、能源活动及间接CO₂排放量

Figure 8. CO₂ emissions from industrial processes, energy activities and indirect emissions under different scenarios from 2021 to 2035 in China

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图 9 水泥行业碳达峰路径和主要减排措施的贡献

Figure 9. Pathway of carbon emissions peak for cement industry and contribution of main emission reduction measures

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表 1 水泥行业2021—2035年CO₂排放情景设计

Table 1. Scenarios of CO₂ emissions in cement industry from 2021 to 2035

项目		年份	基准情景(BAU)	高需求情景	低需求情景
水泥熟料产量		2025	多因素拟合分析+类比分析法预测结果	多因素拟合分析+类比分析法预测结果	下游需求预测法预测结果
		2030
		2035
控制措施	落后产能淘汰	2025	淘汰干法中空窑(除生产铝酸盐水泥等特种水泥外)、水泥机立窑、立波尔窑、湿法窑(现状要求)	淘汰规模2 000 t/d以下硅酸盐水泥熟料生产线约5 000×10⁴ t
		2030		根据能耗水平淘汰低效产能
		2035		根据能耗水平淘汰低效产能
	熟料烧成系统节能改造	2025	单位熟料煤耗保持现状	对单位熟料煤耗大于112 kg/t (以标准煤计)的生产线实施技术改造
		2030		对单位熟料煤耗大于109 kg/t (以标准煤计)的生产线实施技术改造
		2035		对单位熟料煤耗大于105 kg/t (以标准煤计)的生产线实施技术改造
	推广高效粉磨技术	2025	30%企业采用高效粉磨技术 (现状)	40%企业采用高效粉磨技术
		2030		60%企业采用高效粉磨技术
		2035		80%企业采用高效粉磨技术
	推进替代燃料使用	2025	5%生产线采用燃料替代技术 (现状)	20%生产线采用燃料替代技术
		2030		40%生产线采用燃料替代技术
		2035		60%生产线采用燃料替代技术
	工业废料替代石灰质原料	2025	—	—
		2030		工业固废在原料中的替代比例达5%
		2035		工业固废在原料中的替代比例达5%

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