中国电力行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

王丽娟; 张剑; 王雪松; 陈潇君; 宋晓晖; 周凌安; 严刚

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.24

中国电力行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.24

王丽娟^1,,
张剑²,
王雪松^2, ,,
陈潇君¹,
宋晓晖^1, ,,
周凌安²,
严刚¹

1.
生态环境部环境规划院大气环境规划研究所, 北京　100012
2.
电力规划设计总院, 北京　100120

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(No.2019YFC0214205)；中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(No.2021-HYZD-14)

详细信息

作者简介:
王丽娟(1983-)，女，山东滨州人，副研究员，博士，主要从事大气环境规划、碳达峰碳中和研究，wanglj@caep.org.cn

通讯作者:
①王雪松(1983-)，男，吉林松原人，高级工程师，博士，主要从事电力系统规划设计研究，xswang@eppei.com

②宋晓晖(1986-)，女，山东东营人，副研究员，硕士，主要从事环境政策、碳达峰碳中和研究，songxh@caep.org.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-09-06
- 修回日期: 2021-11-04
- 网络出版日期: 2022-03-07

Pathway of Carbon Emission Peak in China′s Electric Power Industry

1.
Institute of Atmospheric Environment, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China
2.
China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing 100120, China

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2019YFC0214205)；Strategic Research and Consulting Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering (No.2021-HYZD-14)

摘要

摘要: 电力行业是我国最大的碳排放部门，碳排放量占全国碳排放总量的40%以上；同时，电力将是未来10年能源增长的主体，而这些新增用电与国计民生直接相关，属于刚性需求，是支撑我国经济转型升级和未来居民生活水平提高的重要保障. 电力行业未来新增需求压力巨大，其碳排放峰值及达峰速度将直接决定2030年前全国碳排放达峰目标能否实现. 统筹考虑社会经济发展、各部门用电需求、电源结构调整、发电标准煤耗变化等因素，采用基于情景分析的方法，开展电力行业碳排放趋势预测，识别碳减排的主要驱动因素，提出推动碳排放达峰的关键举措，为制定碳达峰目标背景下的电力行业碳排放控制路径提供参考. 结果表明：①通过积极措施，电力行业碳排放能够在2030年左右达峰，在不考虑热电联产供热碳排放时，于2028—2031年达峰，峰值为43.2×10⁸~44.9×10⁸ t，较2020年增加3.2×10⁸~4.9×10⁸ t；考虑热电联产供热碳排放，则达峰时间为2031—2033年，峰值为50.7×10⁸~53.0×10⁸ t，较2020年增加4.9×10⁸~7.2×10⁸ t. ②在电源结构不变的情况下，如到2030年降低2%左右的电力需求，达峰时间将提前4年左右. ③提速风光新能源发展是实现2030年前碳达峰的必然选择，到2030年，提高风光发电、核电、水电、生物质、气电发电装机容量及发电量、节能降耗措施等各项措施的减排贡献率分别为55.3%、10.6%、9.2%、7.6%、5.7%、11.5%. 研究显示，未来我国电力行业碳减排工作重点要聚焦于优化电源结构、推动形成绿色生产生活方式、提升用电效率、降低煤电机组能耗水平等方面.
- 电力行业 /
- CO₂排放 /
- 碳达峰 /
- 情景分析 /
- 控制路径
Abstract: The electric power industry is the largest carbon emission sector in China, accounting for more than 40% of the total carbon emissions. The demand for electricity is expected to increase most significantly in the next ten years, and the growth of electricity consumption is directly related to the national economic development and people's livelihood. Whether the carbon emission peaking target can be achieved or not mainly depends on the peaking time and value of carbon emissions in the power industry. Considering the influences of economic and social development, the electricity demand, the power source structure adjustments, the changes in the standard coal consumption rate for power generation and other factors, an integrated scenario study was carried out on the paths of CO₂ emission peaking in the power industry. The CO₂ emission trends were calculated under different scenarios, the main driving factors of CO₂ emission reduction were analyzed, and the key measures to promote the carbon emission peaking were identified. The research will provide support for policy making on carbon emission control to achieve the targets of carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality. The results show that: (1) The carbon emissions from the power industry will peak around 2030, by taking active measures. Without considering heating supply, the carbon emissions from the power industry will reach the peak from 2028 to 2031, and the peak target is 43.2×10⁸-44.9×10⁸ t. Taking heating into account, the CO₂ emissions from power industry will peak by 2031-2033, and the peak target is 50.7×10⁸-53.0×10⁸ t. (2) In the case of the same power supply structure, if the power demand reduces by 2% by 2030, the peak time will be advanced by about 4 years. (3) Speeding up the development of solar and wind power is the inevitable choice to achieve the carbon peak before 2030. Increasing the share of renewable energies in power generation, such as wind and solar power, hydropower, nuclear power, biomass power and reducing standard coal consumption for power generation will account for 55.3%, 10.6%, 9.2%, 7.6%, 5.7%, 11.5% of CO₂ emissions reductions, respectively by 2030. Key measures to reduce carbon emissions in China's power industry are suggested, including optimizing the power supply structure, promoting green production and lifestyle, improving the efficiency of electricity consumption, and reducing the energy consumption of coal-fired power plants.
- electric power industry /
- CO₂ emissions /
- carbon emissions peaking /
- scenario analysis /
- control strategies

HTML全文

图 1 电力行业碳达峰预测技术路线

Figure 1. Technology framework of carbon emission peak forecasting in electric power industry

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 我国用电发展趋势及用电结构

Figure 2. Development trend and structure of electricity consumption in China

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图 3 不同情景下我国电力行业CO₂排放量

Figure 3. CO₂ emission trends in the power industry under different scenarios in China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 不同措施对我国电力行业碳减排影响分析

Figure 4. Impact of different factors on carbon emission reduction in power industry in China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 不同情景下我国电力行业碳排放控制参数取值

Table 1. Parameter values of key measures for carbon emission control in power industry of China under the scenario of strengthened control

情景名称	年份	用电需求/ (10¹² kW·h)	发电标准煤耗/ [g/ (kW·h)]	发电装机容量/(10⁸ kW)
情景名称	年份	用电需求/ (10¹² kW·h)	发电标准煤耗/ [g/ (kW·h)]	气电	水电	核电	生物质	风能	太阳能
基准情景	2020	7.6	289	1.0	3.4	0.5	0.3	2.8	2.5
	2025	9.5	289	1.2	3.6	0.7	0.5	3.5	5.2
	2030	11.2	289	1.5	3.8	1.0	0.7	4.2	7.8
	2035	12.7	289	1.7	3.9	1.3	0.9	4.9	10.4
低碳情景	2025	9.5	286	1.5	3.9	0.7	0.5	4.7	6.0
	2030	11.2	280	2.0	4.1	1.2	0.9	6.7	9.7
	2035	12.7	275	2.3	4.1	1.7	1.2	8.9	13.8
强化情景	2025	9.3	286	1.5	3.9	0.7	0.5	4.7	6.0
	2030	11.0	280	2.0	4.1	1.2	0.9	6.7	9.7
	2035	12.2	275	2.3	4.1	1.7	1.2	8.9	13.8

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 不同因素对电力行业碳排放影响的测算原则

Table 2. Estimation principles on the effects of CO₂ emission mitigations factors in the power industry

影响因素	碳排放影响测算原则
电力需求变化	电源结构保持不变，电力需求变化对CO₂排放的影响
电源结构变化	电力需求保持不变时，提高风电、太阳能发电装机对CO₂排放的影响
发电煤耗变化	电力需求保持不变时，发电煤耗改变对CO₂排放的影响

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