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中国电力行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

王丽娟 张剑 王雪松 陈潇君 宋晓晖 周凌安 严刚

王丽娟, 张剑, 王雪松, 陈潇君, 宋晓晖, 周凌安, 严刚. 中国电力行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究[J]. 环境科学研究, 2022, 35(2): 329-338. doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.24
引用本文: 王丽娟, 张剑, 王雪松, 陈潇君, 宋晓晖, 周凌安, 严刚. 中国电力行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究[J]. 环境科学研究, 2022, 35(2): 329-338. doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.24
WANG Lijuan, ZHANG Jian, WANG Xuesong, CHEN Xiaojun, SONG Xiaohui, ZHOU Ling'an, YAN Gang. Pathway of Carbon Emission Peak in China′s Electric Power Industry[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2022, 35(2): 329-338. doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.24
Citation: WANG Lijuan, ZHANG Jian, WANG Xuesong, CHEN Xiaojun, SONG Xiaohui, ZHOU Ling'an, YAN Gang. Pathway of Carbon Emission Peak in China′s Electric Power Industry[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2022, 35(2): 329-338. doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.24

中国电力行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2021.11.24
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(No.2019YFC0214205);中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(No.2021-HYZD-14)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    王丽娟(1983-),女,山东滨州人,副研究员,博士,主要从事大气环境规划、碳达峰碳中和研究,wanglj@caep.org.cn

    通讯作者:

    ①王雪松(1983-),男,吉林松原人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事电力系统规划设计研究,xswang@eppei.com

    ②宋晓晖(1986-),女,山东东营人,副研究员,硕士,主要从事环境政策、碳达峰碳中和研究,songxh@caep.org.cn

  • 中图分类号: X24

Pathway of Carbon Emission Peak in China′s Electric Power Industry

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2019YFC0214205);Strategic Research and Consulting Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering (No.2021-HYZD-14)
  • 摘要: 电力行业是我国最大的碳排放部门,碳排放量占全国碳排放总量的40%以上;同时,电力将是未来10年能源增长的主体,而这些新增用电与国计民生直接相关,属于刚性需求,是支撑我国经济转型升级和未来居民生活水平提高的重要保障. 电力行业未来新增需求压力巨大,其碳排放峰值及达峰速度将直接决定2030年前全国碳排放达峰目标能否实现. 统筹考虑社会经济发展、各部门用电需求、电源结构调整、发电标准煤耗变化等因素,采用基于情景分析的方法,开展电力行业碳排放趋势预测,识别碳减排的主要驱动因素,提出推动碳排放达峰的关键举措,为制定碳达峰目标背景下的电力行业碳排放控制路径提供参考. 结果表明:①通过积极措施,电力行业碳排放能够在2030年左右达峰,在不考虑热电联产供热碳排放时,于2028—2031年达峰,峰值为43.2×108~44.9×108 t,较2020年增加3.2×108~4.9×108 t;考虑热电联产供热碳排放,则达峰时间为2031—2033年,峰值为50.7×108~53.0×108 t,较2020年增加4.9×108~7.2×108 t. ②在电源结构不变的情况下,如到2030年降低2%左右的电力需求,达峰时间将提前4年左右. ③提速风光新能源发展是实现2030年前碳达峰的必然选择,到2030年,提高风光发电、核电、水电、生物质、气电发电装机容量及发电量、节能降耗措施等各项措施的减排贡献率分别为55.3%、10.6%、9.2%、7.6%、5.7%、11.5%. 研究显示,未来我国电力行业碳减排工作重点要聚焦于优化电源结构、推动形成绿色生产生活方式、提升用电效率、降低煤电机组能耗水平等方面.

     

  • 图  1  电力行业碳达峰预测技术路线

    Figure  1.  Technology framework of carbon emission peak forecasting in electric power industry

    图  2  我国用电发展趋势及用电结构

    Figure  2.  Development trend and structure of electricity consumption in China

    图  3  不同情景下我国电力行业CO2排放量

    Figure  3.  CO2 emission trends in the power industry under different scenarios in China

    图  4  不同措施对我国电力行业碳减排影响分析

    Figure  4.  Impact of different factors on carbon emission reduction in power industry in China

    表  1  不同情景下我国电力行业碳排放控制参数取值

    Table  1.   Parameter values of key measures for carbon emission control in power industry of China under the scenario of strengthened control

    情景名称年份用电需求/
    (1012 kW·h)
    发电标准煤耗/
    [g/ (kW·h)]
    发电装机容量/(108 kW)
    气电水电核电生物质风能太阳能
    基准情景20207.62891.03.40.50.32.82.5
    20259.52891.23.60.70.53.55.2
    203011.22891.53.81.00.74.27.8
    203512.72891.73.91.30.94.910.4
    低碳情景20259.52861.53.90.70.54.76.0
    203011.22802.04.11.20.96.79.7
    203512.72752.34.11.71.28.913.8
    强化情景20259.32861.53.90.70.54.76.0
    203011.02802.04.11.20.96.79.7
    203512.22752.34.11.71.28.913.8
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  不同因素对电力行业碳排放影响的测算原则

    Table  2.   Estimation principles on the effects of CO2 emission mitigations factors in the power industry

    影响因素碳排放影响测算原则
    电力需求变化 电源结构保持不变,电力需求变化对CO2排放的影响
    电源结构变化 电力需求保持不变时,提高风电、太阳能发电装机对CO2排放的影响
    发电煤耗变化 电力需求保持不变时,发电煤耗改变对CO2排放的影响
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-09-06
  • 修回日期:  2021-11-04
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-03-07

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