Impacts of Economic Structural Transition on Synergetic Control of CO2 and Air Pollutants in Guangdong Province
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摘要: 在经济快速发展和减污降碳的双重压力下，通过经济结构转型实现协同减污降碳，是广东省可持续发展的迫切需要. 本研究利用减排量弹性系数评估SO2、NOx、烟粉尘与CO2排放量变化的协同性，基于环境投入产出模型和结构分解分析方法探究广东省经济结构转型对协同减污降碳的影响. 结果表明：①从生产端看，电力热力的生产和供应业以及非金属矿物制品业的大气污染物和CO2排放量较大；从消费端看，建筑业同时排放了大量大气污染物和CO2. ②2007—2017年生产结构变化和最终需求产品结构变化对减污降碳的影响存在不协同性，未来可通过优化生产结构和最终需求产品结构促进协同减污降碳. 研究显示，应以生产结构和最终需求产品结构转型为重要抓手，提高广东省减污降碳的协同性，实现高质量可持续发展.Abstract: Under the pressures of rapid economic development and the control of CO2 and air pollutants, the synergetic control of CO2 and pollutants through economic structural transformation is an urgent need for the sustainable development of Guangdong Province. This study evaluates the synergy of changes in SO2, NOx, soot, and CO2 emissions through the elasticity coefficient of emission reduction. Based on environmentally extended input-output model and structural decomposition analysis, we investigate the impact of economic structural transformation on the synergetic control of CO2 and air pollutants in Guangdong Province. The results show that: (1) From the production perspective, the electricity and heat power production and supply sectors and the non-metallic product manufacturing sector are the major emitters of all air pollutants and CO2. From the consumption perspective, the final demand of the construction sector drives lots of air pollutant and CO2 emissions. (2) There is no good synergy between pollutant reduction and CO2 emission mitigation effected by the changes in production structure and final demand product structure. This indicates the potential for synergetic control of CO2 and air pollutants by optimizing production structure and final demand product structure in the future. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the transformation of production structure and final demand product structure to promote synergetic control of CO2 and air pollutants. This can help Guangdong Province achieve high-quality and sustainable development.
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图 1 2007—2017年广东省经济增长与大气污染物、CO2排放的解耦指数
Figure 1. Decoupling indexes indicating air pollutants and CO2 emissions of Guangdong Province's economic growth from 2007 to 2017
图 2 2017年广东省基于生产端和消费端各部门对大气污染物和CO2排放的贡献率
注：其他服务业包括计算机服务和软件业、批发和零售业、住宿和餐饮业、金融和保险业、房地产业、租赁和商务服务业、科学研究和技术服务业、水利环境和公共设施管理业、居民服务和其他服务业、教育事业、社会保障和福利业、文体娱乐业、公共管理和社会组织. 对大气污染物和CO2排放贡献较小的部门(农林牧渔业、煤炭开采和洗选业、石油和天然气开采业、金属矿采选业、非金属矿采选业、木材加工及家具制造业、仪器仪表及办公机械制造业、其他制造业、废品废料、燃气生产和供应业、水的生产和供应业)合并为“其他行业”.
Figure 2. Contributions of air pollutant emissions and CO2 emissions by sector in Guangdong Province from production and consumption perspectives in 2017
图 3 2017年广东省各部门大气污染物以及CO2的直接和间接排放强度
注：1~40分别代表农林牧渔业、煤炭开采和洗选业、石油和天然气开采业、金属矿采选业、非金属矿采选业、食品制造及烟草加工业、纺织业、服装皮革羽绒及其制品业、木材加工及家具制造业、造纸印刷及文教用品制造业、石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业、化学工业、非金属矿物制品业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、金属制品业、通用专用设备制造业、交通运输设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业、电子设备制造业、仪器仪表及办公机械制造业、其他制造业、废品废料、电力热力的生产和供应业、燃气生产和供应业、水的生产和供应业、建筑业、交通运输仓储及邮政业、计算机服务和软件业、批发和零售业、住宿和餐饮业、金融和保险业、房地产业、租赁和商务服务业、科学研究和技术服务业、水利环境和公共设施管理业、居民服务和其他服务业、教育事业、社会保障和福利业、文体娱乐业、公共管理和社会组织部门.
Figure 3. Direct and indirect emissions intensity of air pollutants and CO2 by sector in Guangdong Province in 2017
图 4 2007—2017年广东省社会经济转型对大气污染物和CO2排放变化的贡献情况
Figure 4. Relative contributions of Guangdong Province's socioeconomic transition to the changes of air pollutants and CO2 emissions from 2007 to 2017
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