Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Multiple Emission Reduction Pathways during a Concurrent PM2.5 and Ozone Pollution in Shanghai
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摘要: 为探究大气PM2.5和臭氧(O3)复合污染期间的污染物浓度削峰方案，以上海市2018年4月27—30日PM2.5和O3复合污染时段为研究对象，结合区域多尺度空气质量模型(CMAQ模型)，建立上海市O3日最大8小时滑动平均值(MDA8 O3)以及PM2.5浓度与人为源排放的NOx和VOCs之间的响应关系，获得了EKMA (empirical kinetics modeling approach，经验动力学建模方法)曲线. 在此基础上，探讨上海市MDA8 O3和PM2.5对前体物排放的敏感性，并进一步量化了本地减排、提前减排和区域减排等不同情景下PM2.5和MDA8 O3的浓度变化. 结果表明：①上海市PM2.5和O3复合污染期间MDA8 O3的峰值率(PR)为0.6~1.1，除浦东惠南站点外，整体处于VOCs控制区. ②上海市人为源NOx和VOCs减排对PM2.5的削峰效果有限(NOx减少80%时，PM2.5浓度下降1.2 μg/m3). 本地VOCs减排对MDA8 O3的削峰较为明显(最大下降量为17.0 μg/m3). VOCs与NOx的减排比例需控制在1.9∶1以上才能使MDA8 O3浓度不发生反弹，同时可优先控制烯烃类的排放. ③上海市MDA8 O3浓度在提前减排和区域减排VOCs情景下均能进一步降低，降幅为0.6%~3.1%，且区域减排带来的受益范围更广；提前减排和区域减排对上海市PM2.5浓度降低的边际效益均甚微. 研究显示，复合污染期间VOCs的排放控制可同时削减PM2.5和MDA8 O3浓度峰值，提前采取污染防控措施以及区域联合控制对上海市O3浓度削峰有一定积极意义.
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关键词:
- 协同控制 /
- 臭氧(O3) /
- PM2.5 /
- 区域多尺度空气质量模型(CMAQ模型) /
- 减排情景
Abstract: In order to investigate the synergistic control strategy of both PM2.5 and O3 during a concurrent pollution episode in Shanghai from April 27th to 30th, 2018, this study established the response curves (i.e., EKMA) of the maximum 8-hour average O3 (MDA8 O3) and PM2.5 concentrations to changes in anthropogenic NOx and VOCs emissions. On this basis, the sensitivities of MDA8 O3 and PM2.5 to changes in precursor emissions in Shanghai were discussed, and two more emission control scenarios, one with temporally advanced reduction and the other with regional reduction, were conducted to quantify the changes in MDA8 O3 and PM2.5 concentrations. The results show that: (1) During the period of PM2.5 and O3 pollution in Shanghai, the peak ratio (PR) of MDA8 O3 was 0.6-1.1, with most of Shanghai being in the VOC-limited area, except Pudong district. (2) Reducing anthropogenic NOx and VOCs emissions in Shanghai had limited effects on reducing peak PM2.5 concentration (maximum PM2.5 decrease of 1.2 μg/m3 with 80% reduction in NOx). VOCs emission reduction in Shanghai had a more significant effect on reducing MDA8 O3 concentration (maximum decrease of 17.0 μg/m3). The reduction ratio of VOCs/NOx needs to be controlled above 1.9∶1 to prevent MDA8 O3 from increasing. We should also prioritize controlling olefin emissions. (3) The MDA8 O3 concentration in Shanghai can be further reduced by advanced and regional emission reduction of VOCs (by another 0.6%-3.1%). A broader region of reduction could be achieved by emission reduction at a regional scale. However, the marginal benefit of early and regional emission reduction in reducing PM2.5 concentration in Shanghai is limited. The results show that VOCs reduction during concurrent pollution can reduce both PM2.5 and MDA8 O3 concentrations, and early adoption of pollution prevention and control measures and joint regional control have positive effect on reducing O3 concentration in Shanghai. -
图 1 4 km×4 km模拟区域范围和减排城市示意以及上海市部分国控站点分布
Figure 1. 4 km×4 km simulated area range and emission reduction city schematic, and locations of selected national monitoring stations in Shanghai
图 2 上海市不同站点PM2.5和O3浓度监测值和模拟值的相关性
Figure 2. Correlation between monitoring values and simulated values of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations at different stations in Shanghai
图 3 上海市不同站点NOx和VOCs排放变化与MDA8 O3浓度的响应关系
Figure 3. Response of MDA8 O3 concentration to emission variations of NOx and VOCs at different stations in Shanghai
图 4 上海市5个站点MDA8 O3平均浓度对不同VOCs物种的排放变化响应
Figure 4. Response of average MDA8 O3 concentration to emission changes of different VOCs species at five stations in Shanghai
图 5 上海市本地排放对5个站点的PM2.5二次无机组分浓度的贡献率
Figure 5. Contribution of local emissions to secondary inorganic PM2.5 at five stations in Shanghai
图 6 上海市5个站点不同NOx排放比例下SO42−、SOA和·OH 的变化率(VOCs排放比例为40%)
Figure 6. Changes of SO42−, SOA and ·OH concentrations under different NOx emission ratios at five stations in Shanghai (VOCs emissions set to 40%)
图 7 减排方案SⅢ与SⅠ下MDA8 O3和PM2.5浓度差值的空间分布
Figure 7. Spatial distributions of differences in MDA8 O3 and PM2.5 concentrations between emission control scenarios SⅢ and SⅠ
图 8 减排方案SⅢ与SⅠ下上海市不同站点MDA8 O3和PM2.5浓度的变化情况
Figure 8. Changes in MDA8 O3 and PM2.5 concentrations at different stations in Shanghai between emission control scenarios SⅢ and SⅠ
图 9 减排方案SⅣ与SⅠ下MDA8 O3和PM2.5浓度差值的空间分布
Figure 9. Spatial distributions of differences in MDA8 O3 and PM2.5 concentrations between emission control scenarios SⅣ and SⅠ
图 10 减排方案SⅣ与SⅠ下上海市不同站点MDA8 O3和PM2.5浓度变化
Figure 10. Changes in MDA8 O3 and PM2.5 concentrations at different stations in Shanghai between emission control scenarios SⅣ and SⅠ
表 1 不同减排方案中CMAQ模拟情景设置
Table 1. Model configurations in different emission control scenarios
项目 VOCs排放比例/% NOx排放比例/% 人为源VOCs减排物种 减排城市 减排时段 基础情景 100 100 — — — 方案Ⅰ S1～S24减排情景 20 20 所有VOCs 上海市 27—30日 40 40 60 60 80 80 100 100 方案Ⅱ S25～S40减排情景 20 100 烷烃、烯烃、芳烃、OVOCs 上海市 27—30日 40 100 60 100 80 100 方案Ⅲ S41～S44减排情景 20 100 所有VOCs 上海市 24—30日 40 100 60 100 80 100 方案Ⅳ S45～S48减排情景 20 100 所有VOCs 上海市、南通市、苏州市、嘉兴市、绍兴市、杭州市、宁波市 27—30日 40 100 60 100 80 100 
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表 2 WRF气象因子准确性检验
Table 2. Validation of meteorological parameters for WRF simulation
城市 气象参数 MB RMSE NMB/% r 上海市 T 0.5 ℃ 1.2 ℃ 2.8 0.98 RH −8.9% 10.6% −12.8 0.94 WS 0.5 m/s 1.2 m/s 21.3 0.66 杭州市 T −0.4 ℃ 1.3 ℃ −1.8 0.96 RH −8.2% 10.5% −11.6 0.93 WS −0.5 m/s 0.9 m/s −20.5 0.73 嘉兴市 T 1.0 ℃ 1.8 ℃ 5.2 0.98 RH −13.2% 15.2% −17.9 0.89 WS −0.3 m/s 0.9 m/s −10.8 0.82 南通市 T 0.3 ℃ 1.3 ℃ 1.8 0.98 RH −12.4% 14.0% −17.0 0.93 WS −12.4 m/s 14.0 m/s −17.0 0.93 宁波市 T 0.1 ℃ 0.9 ℃ 0.7 0.98 RH −7.1% 9.4% −9.9 0.91 WS −0.5 m/s 1.0 m/s −16.2 0.87 绍兴市 T 0.2 ℃ 1.3 ℃ 1.0 0.97 RH −7.9% 10.1% −11.5 0.92 WS −0.3 m/s 1.0 m/s −14.1 0.66 苏州市 T 0.3 ℃ 1.8 ℃ 1.4 0.97 RH −9.0% 11.0% −13.4 0.92 WS −9.0 m/s 11.0 m/s −13.4 0.92
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表 3 不同城市CMAQ基准情景中PM2.5和O3浓度校验结果
Table 3. Validation of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in CMAQ base case results in different cities
城市 污染物 MB/(μg/m3) RMSE/(μg/m3) NMB/% r 杭州市 O3 −2.1 41.6 −2.2 0.76 PM2.5 10.2 22.2 21.0 0.83 嘉兴市 O3 −28.9 53.6 −22.3 0.80 PM2.5 2.3 23.4 4.0 0.69 南通市 O3 −41.9 63.4 −36.6 0.68 PM2.5 −25.7 50.7 −34.4 0.40 宁波市 O3 −33.9 51.7 −28.1 0.80 PM2.5 1.4 18.1 3.2 0.72 绍兴市 O3 −20.3 50.9 −17.1 0.74 PM2.5 12.3 31.9 23.5 0.61 苏州市 O3 −19.0 55.5 −17.7 0.72 PM2.5 −6.6 35.9 −8.7 0.59
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表 4 上海市不同站点MDA8 O3和PM2.5的PR值
Table 4. The PR values for MDA8 O3 and PM2.5 at different stations in Shanghai
站点名称 PR值 MDA8 O3 PM2.5 徐汇上师大站点 0.6 1.5 青浦淀山湖站点 0.7 1.5 宝山庙行站点 0.6 1.0 金山新城站点 0.7 1.6 浦东惠南站点 1.1 1.6
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表 5 上海市不同站点MDA8 O3的VNr值
Table 5. VNr values for MDA8 O3 at different stations in Shanghai
站点名称 VNr 徐汇上师大站点 1.4 青浦淀山湖站点 1.3 宝山庙行站点 1.9 金山新城站点 0.9 浦东惠南站点 —
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