2015—2020年中国臭氧污染时空演化及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的关系研究

杨艺科; 王晓红; 凌元锦; 陆庆恒; 秦靖蒿; 李晓艺; 于乐江

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2023.03.03

2015—2020年中国臭氧污染时空演化及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的关系研究

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2023.03.03

1.
青岛科技大学环境与安全工程学院，山东青岛　266042
2.
中国极地研究中心，自然资源部极地科学重点实验室，上海　200136

基金项目: 山东省自然科学基金项目(No.ZR2020MD016)

详细信息

作者简介:
杨艺科（1998-），男，河南许昌人，yangkepersonal@outlook.com

通讯作者:
王晓红(1981-)，女，山东淄博人，副教授，博士，主要从事大气环境污染研究，28473356@qq.com

中图分类号: X513
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-06-21
- 修回日期: 2022-10-31

Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Ozone Pollution and Its Relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation in China from 2015 to 2020

1.
College of Environment and Safety Engineering, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266042, China
2.
State Oceanic Administration Key Laboratory for Polar Science, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 200136, China

Funds: Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province, China (No.ZR2020MD016)

摘要

摘要: 为研究2015—2020年我国近地面臭氧(O₃)污染时空演化特征以及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)对我国O₃污染的影响，本文基于2015—2020年我国近1 500个监测站点的O₃浓度数据(不包括港澳台地区数据)，综合运用空间自相关、热点分析、异常值分析及回归分析，研究2015—2020年我国O₃污染的时空演化、浓度异常特征及其与ENSO事件和气象因素的关系. 结果表明：①2015—2019年我国O₃污染集聚效应不断增强，但2020年显著降低. ②我国O₃浓度呈先升高(2015—2018年)后下降(2018—2020年)的特征，2017年、2018年O₃年均浓度分别较上一年升高8.72%、1.76%，2019年、2020年O₃年均浓度分别较上一年下降3.60%、3.66%. 除2019年、2020年外，O₃浓度高值聚集区站点的O₃浓度峰值和高值天数(日均值大于120 μg/m³的天数)均大于O₃浓度低值聚集区站点. ③O₃高浓度时期为每年的4—10月. O₃高浓度区域春、夏两季以华北为核心，秋季向华南和东南地区转移. ④回归分析表明，我国O₃浓度正异常与ENSO负相拉尼娜相关，O₃浓度负异常与ENSO正相厄尔尼诺相关. 我国东南部O₃浓度异常主要受ENSO期间太阳辐射异常和降水异常的影响，而西部和北部地区O₃浓度异常主要受ENSO期间风速异常的影响. 研究显示，2015—2020年我国O₃平均浓度呈先升高后降低的变化趋势，O₃高浓度时期以春、夏两季为主，O₃高浓度区域随季节而发生变化，且不同区域O₃污染变化特征不同，ENSO对我国不同区域O₃污染的影响机制不同.
- 臭氧(O₃) /
- 时空演化 /
- 浓度异常 /
- 回归 /
- 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)
Abstract: To study the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of near-surface ozone (O₃) pollution in China from 2015 to 2020 and the effects of El Niño southern Oscillation (ENSO) on it, the temporal and spatial characteristics of O₃ pollution and its relationship with ENSO and meteorological factors were investigated based on O₃ observed data from nearly 1500 monitoring stations in China from 2015 to 2020 using spatial autocorrelation, hot spot analysis, anomalies analysis, and regression analysis. The result shows that: (1) The agglomeration effect of O₃ pollution first intensified from 2015 to 2019, and then dramatically weakened in 2020. (2) The national average O₃ concentration first increased from 2015 to 2018, and then decreased from 2018 to 2020. Compared with the previous year, the annual average O₃ concentration increased by 8.72% and 1.76% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. It decreased by 3.60% and 3.66% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. In addition, the maximum peak and high-value (daily average value greater than 120 μg/m³) days of O₃ concentration in the high O₃ concentration aggregated area were higher than those in the low O₃ concentration aggregated area, except for 2019 and 2020. (3) In the case of seasonal variations, high O₃ concentration typically lasted from April to October each year. In spring and summer, the high O₃ concentration area was concentrated in North China, but in autumn, the center gradually shifted to South and southeast China. (4) It was demonstrated that there was a relationship between the positive anomaly of O₃ concentration and the ENSO negative phase La Niña, and the negative anomaly of O₃ concentration and the ENSO positive phase El Niño. The ENSO-related solar radiation and precipitation anomalies primarily affect the O₃ concentration anomaly in southeast China, while the ENSO-related wind speed anomaly primarily affects the O₃ concentration anomaly in western and northern China. The study shows that from 2015 to 2020 the national average O₃ concentration first increased and then decreased overall. The period of high O₃ concentration is mainly in spring and summer. The regions with high O₃ concentration vary with seasons. O₃ pollution in different regions has different spatiotemporal characteristics, and the effect mechanism of ENSO on O₃ pollution is different in different regions of China.
- ozone (O₃) /
- spatial and temporal evolution /
- concentration anomalies /
- regression /
- El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

HTML全文

图 1 我国空气质量地面监测站点

审图号：GS京(2023)0895号. 下同.

Figure 1. Air quality monitoring sites in China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2015—2020年我国O₃浓度冷点、热点分布情况

Figure 2. Hot and cold spots of O₃ annual concentrations in China from 2015 to 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2015—2020年冷热点代表站点O₃浓度时间序列

Figure 3. Time series of daily average concentration of O₃ at representative cold and hot spots from 2015 to 2020

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图 4 2015—2020年3月、6月、9月、12月我国9个区域内所有站点O₃月均浓度的箱线图

Figure 4. Box and whisker plots for monthly mean O₃ concentrations at all stations within the nine regions of China in March, June, September and December from 2015 to 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2015—2020年中国O₃浓度全局Moran′s I值

Table 1. Global Moran′s I of O₃ concentrations in China from 2015 to 2020

年份	全局Moran′s I	Z(I)
2015	0.39	23.86
2016	0.40	25.25
2017	0.53	33.58
2018	0.55	35.16
2019	0.59	38.68
2020	0.49	31.37

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2015—2020年我国O₃-8 h浓度峰值、谷值及高值情况

Table 2. Peak, valley and high values of O₃-8 h pollution from 2015 to 2020 in China

年份	峰值		谷值		峰值时间		高值(>120 μg/m³)
	O₃-8 h浓度/ (μg/m³)	日期	O₃-8 h浓度/ (μg/m³)	日期	首峰时间	末峰时间	春季		夏季		秋季		冬季
	O₃-8 h浓度/ (μg/m³)	日期	O₃-8 h浓度/ (μg/m³)	日期	首峰时间	末峰时间	天数	频率	天数	频率	天数	频率	天数	频率
2015	155.50	2015年5月27日	34.27	2015年12月22日	2015年5月27日	2015年9月20日	16	0.17	12	0.13	5	0.05	0	0
2016	155.66	2016年6月9日	39.34	2016年12月25日	2016年5月11日	2016年11月15日	16	0.17	23	0.25	9	0.10	0	0
2017	181.38	2017年5月28日	38.49	2017年12月14日	2017年5月28日	2017年9月18日	50	0.54	33	0.36	0	0	0	0
2018	159.18	2018年4月18日	35.05	2018年12月10日	2018年4月18日	2018年10月4日	43	0.47	47	0.45	6	0	0	0
2019	162.30	2019年9月28日	37.57	2019年1月10日	2019年5月23日	2019年9月28日	36	0.39	38	0.41	4	0.04	0	0
2020	156.70	2020年4月29日	37.54	2020年1月2日	2020年4月29日	2020年9月6日	22	0.24	12	0.13	4	0.04	0	0

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 Niño3.4指数与O₃月均浓度异常的回归分析

Table 3. Regression analysis of Niño3.4 index and abnormal O₃ monthly mean concentrations

区域	Lag-0		Lag-1		Lag-2
区域	负值占比/%	正值占比/%	负值占比/%	正值占比/%	负值占比/%	正值占比/%
西北地区	71.33	20.28	70.63	20.98	69.23	22.38
内蒙古自治区	69.57	19.57	71.74	17.39	76.09	13.04
东北地区	46.11	49.10	53.29	41.92	56.29	38.92
青藏地区	48.28	37.03	37.93	48.28	41.38	44.83
华中地区	62.12	29.17	66.29	25.00	73.11	18.18
华北地区	65.97	19.75	74.37	11.34	75.63	10.08
西南地区	60.33	23.91	56.52	27.72	57.07	27.17
华南地区	85.63	11.88	91.25	6.25	95.00	2.50
华东地区	51.88	33.08	54.89	30.08	60.53	24.44
注：Lag-0、Lag-1和Lag-2分别代表O₃浓度月均异常值不滞后、滞后Niño3.4指数一个月、滞后Niño3.4指数两个月.

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