Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Ozone Pollution and Its Relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation in China from 2015 to 2020
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摘要: 为研究2015—2020年我国近地面臭氧(O3)污染时空演化特征以及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)对我国O3污染的影响,本文基于2015—2020年我国近1 500个监测站点的O3浓度数据(不包括港澳台地区数据),综合运用空间自相关、热点分析、异常值分析及回归分析,研究2015—2020年我国O3污染的时空演化、浓度异常特征及其与ENSO事件和气象因素的关系. 结果表明:①2015—2019年我国O3污染集聚效应不断增强,但2020年显著降低. ②我国O3浓度呈先升高(2015—2018年)后下降(2018—2020年)的特征,2017年、2018年O3年均浓度分别较上一年升高8.72%、1.76%,2019年、2020年O3年均浓度分别较上一年下降3.60%、3.66%. 除2019年、2020年外,O3浓度高值聚集区站点的O3浓度峰值和高值天数(日均值大于120 μg/m3的天数)均大于O3浓度低值聚集区站点. ③O3高浓度时期为每年的4—10月. O3高浓度区域春、夏两季以华北为核心,秋季向华南和东南地区转移. ④回归分析表明,我国O3浓度正异常与ENSO负相拉尼娜相关,O3浓度负异常与ENSO正相厄尔尼诺相关. 我国东南部O3浓度异常主要受ENSO期间太阳辐射异常和降水异常的影响,而西部和北部地区O3浓度异常主要受ENSO期间风速异常的影响. 研究显示,2015—2020年我国O3平均浓度呈先升高后降低的变化趋势,O3高浓度时期以春、夏两季为主,O3高浓度区域随季节而发生变化,且不同区域O3污染变化特征不同,ENSO对我国不同区域O3污染的影响机制不同.
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关键词:
- 臭氧(O3) /
- 时空演化 /
- 浓度异常 /
- 回归 /
- 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)
Abstract: To study the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of near-surface ozone (O3) pollution in China from 2015 to 2020 and the effects of El Niño southern Oscillation (ENSO) on it, the temporal and spatial characteristics of O3 pollution and its relationship with ENSO and meteorological factors were investigated based on O3 observed data from nearly 1500 monitoring stations in China from 2015 to 2020 using spatial autocorrelation, hot spot analysis, anomalies analysis, and regression analysis. The result shows that: (1) The agglomeration effect of O3 pollution first intensified from 2015 to 2019, and then dramatically weakened in 2020. (2) The national average O3 concentration first increased from 2015 to 2018, and then decreased from 2018 to 2020. Compared with the previous year, the annual average O3 concentration increased by 8.72% and 1.76% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. It decreased by 3.60% and 3.66% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. In addition, the maximum peak and high-value (daily average value greater than 120 μg/m3) days of O3 concentration in the high O3 concentration aggregated area were higher than those in the low O3 concentration aggregated area, except for 2019 and 2020. (3) In the case of seasonal variations, high O3 concentration typically lasted from April to October each year. In spring and summer, the high O3 concentration area was concentrated in North China, but in autumn, the center gradually shifted to South and southeast China. (4) It was demonstrated that there was a relationship between the positive anomaly of O3 concentration and the ENSO negative phase La Niña, and the negative anomaly of O3 concentration and the ENSO positive phase El Niño. The ENSO-related solar radiation and precipitation anomalies primarily affect the O3 concentration anomaly in southeast China, while the ENSO-related wind speed anomaly primarily affects the O3 concentration anomaly in western and northern China. The study shows that from 2015 to 2020 the national average O3 concentration first increased and then decreased overall. The period of high O3 concentration is mainly in spring and summer. The regions with high O3 concentration vary with seasons. O3 pollution in different regions has different spatiotemporal characteristics, and the effect mechanism of ENSO on O3 pollution is different in different regions of China. -
表 1 2015—2020年中国O3浓度全局Moran′s I值
Table 1. Global Moran′s I of O3 concentrations in China from 2015 to 2020
年份 全局Moran′s I Z(I) 2015 0.39 23.86 2016 0.40 25.25 2017 0.53 33.58 2018 0.55 35.16 2019 0.59 38.68 2020 0.49 31.37 表 2 2015—2020年我国O3-8 h浓度峰值、谷值及高值情况
Table 2. Peak, valley and high values of O3-8 h pollution from 2015 to 2020 in China
年份 峰值 谷值 峰值时间 高值(>120 μg/m3) O3-8 h浓度/
(μg/m3)日期 O3-8 h浓度/
(μg/m3)日期 首峰时间 末峰时间 春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 天数 频率 天数 频率 天数 频率 天数 频率 2015 155.50 2015年5月27日 34.27 2015年12月22日 2015年5月27日 2015年9月20日 16 0.17 12 0.13 5 0.05 0 0 2016 155.66 2016年6月9日 39.34 2016年12月25日 2016年5月11日 2016年11月15日 16 0.17 23 0.25 9 0.10 0 0 2017 181.38 2017年5月28日 38.49 2017年12月14日 2017年5月28日 2017年9月18日 50 0.54 33 0.36 0 0 0 0 2018 159.18 2018年4月18日 35.05 2018年12月10日 2018年4月18日 2018年10月4日 43 0.47 47 0.45 6 0 0 0 2019 162.30 2019年9月28日 37.57 2019年1月10日 2019年5月23日 2019年9月28日 36 0.39 38 0.41 4 0.04 0 0 2020 156.70 2020年4月29日 37.54 2020年1月2日 2020年4月29日 2020年9月6日 22 0.24 12 0.13 4 0.04 0 0 表 3 Niño3.4指数与O3月均浓度异常的回归分析
Table 3. Regression analysis of Niño3.4 index and abnormal O3 monthly mean concentrations
区域 Lag-0 Lag-1 Lag-2 负值占比/% 正值占比/% 负值占比/% 正值占比/% 负值占比/% 正值占比/% 西北地区 71.33 20.28 70.63 20.98 69.23 22.38 内蒙古自治区 69.57 19.57 71.74 17.39 76.09 13.04 东北地区 46.11 49.10 53.29 41.92 56.29 38.92 青藏地区 48.28 37.03 37.93 48.28 41.38 44.83 华中地区 62.12 29.17 66.29 25.00 73.11 18.18 华北地区 65.97 19.75 74.37 11.34 75.63 10.08 西南地区 60.33 23.91 56.52 27.72 57.07 27.17 华南地区 85.63 11.88 91.25 6.25 95.00 2.50 华东地区 51.88 33.08 54.89 30.08 60.53 24.44 注:Lag-0、Lag-1和Lag-2分别代表O3浓度月均异常值不滞后、滞后Niño3.4指数一个月、滞后Niño3.4指数两个月. -
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