江苏省征收更高税率环境保护税的影响——基于动态CGE模型
The Impact of Higher Tax Rate on Environmental Protection in Jiangsu Province -- Based on Dynamic CGE Model
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摘要: 环境保护税是治理环境问题的有效手段。中国现行的环境保护税制度存在税率较低等问题,难以充分发挥其环境治理能力。江苏省在生态环境方面依然有较大进步空间,提高环境保护税税率也有利于改善生态环境质量。构建江苏省2018年环境社会核算矩阵,运用动态CGE模型,细化环境保护税征收对经济系统影响,分析2018-2030年征收2倍、3倍、4倍现行环境保护税税率对江苏省影响。研究结果表明,征收更高税率环境保护税可以增加江苏省环境保护税收入,减少污染物和二氧化碳排放,具有减污降碳的协同作用。但更高税率环境保护税也会对江苏省GDP、企业和居民收入、出口产生负面影响,并且税收负担主要被转移给居民。因此建议江苏省结合经济发展目标和环境保护需求,合理科学提高环境保护税税率,对不同地级市采取差异化环境保护税提升幅度,采取碳税、建立减污降碳基金等政策提高碳减排效率,将部分环境保护税收入用于提高养老金水平和为出口产品提供补贴,在提高生态环境质量同时,减少对宏观经济的负面影响。Abstract: Environmental protection tax is an effective means to deal with environmental problems. China's current environmental protection tax system has low tax rates and other issues, making it difficult to fully exert its environmental governance capabilities. Jiangsu Province still has space for improvement in the ecological environment, and raising the environmental protection tax rate is also conducive to improving the quality of the ecological environment. Construct the 2018 environmental and social accounting matrix for Jiangsu Province, use a dynamic CGE model to refine the impact of environmental protection tax collection on the economic system, and analyze the impact of the current environmental protection tax rate of 2, 3, and 4 times in 2018-2030 on Jiangsu Province. The results show that levying higher environmental protection taxes could increase environmental protection tax revenue in Jiangsu Province, reduce pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions, which have a synergistic effect of reducing pollution and carbon dioxide. However, higher tax rates of environmental protection taxes would also have a negative impact on Jiangsu Province's GDP, corporate and resident income, and exports, and the tax burden is mainly transferred to residents. Therefore, it is recommended that Jiangsu Province would increase environmental protection tax rates reasonably and scientifically in combination with economic development goals and environmental protection needs and adopt differentiated environmental protection tax increases for different prefecture-level cities. Jiangsu Province would also adopt policies to improve carbon emission reduction efficiency such as carbon taxes, establish pollution reduction and carbon reduction funds, and use part of the environmental protection tax revenue to improve pension levels and provide subsidies for export products, which would be helpful to improve the quality of the ecological environment and reduce negative impacts on the macro economy.
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Key words:
- environmental protection tax /
- dynamic CGE model /
- social accounting matrix /
- GDP /
- carbon emission
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