长江中游省会城市碳足迹深度时空演变及其影响因素研究
Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factorsof Carbon Footprint Depth of Capital Cities in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River
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摘要: 碳足迹深度指数表示区域存量资本的耗费程度,分析其时空演变及影响因素对区域差异化碳排放管控具有促进意义。借鉴三维碳足迹改进模型计算长江中游省会城市碳足迹深度,引入夜间灯光数据拟合碳足迹深度指数,分析长江中游省会城市碳足迹深度的时空演变及分布特征,运用空间分位数模型对碳足迹深度影响因素开展研究。结果表明:(1)2010—2019年,武汉市、南昌市、长沙市碳足迹深度指数均呈现上升趋势。2010年,长江中游省会城市归一化碳足迹深度指数呈现武汉>南昌>长沙的特征,2015及2019年长江中游省会城市归一化碳足迹深度指数以武汉>长沙>南昌的形式呈现,武汉市、南昌市、长沙市的归一化碳足迹深度高值范围均以城市的中心城区向四周扩张;(2)2010—2019年,武汉市、南昌市、长沙市归一化碳足迹深度指数均在1%的显著性水平下高值聚集,由空间趋势面可知,长江中游省会城市归一化碳足迹深度指数在东西方向表现为“中间高—两边低”,而南北方向则由“北高南低”发展为“中间低—两边高”的分布格局,且北部明显高于南部,两条趋势线均不断上升。(3)人口密度、工业总产值、能源总量、人均碳排放等影响因素对碳足迹深度的作用均为正向,各影响因素在碳足迹深度不同分位点的相关系数差异显著,并针对武汉市、南昌市、长沙市分别提出了差异化建议。Abstract: The carbon footprint depth index represents the extent of the consumption of regional stock capital. It is of great significance for regionally differentiated carbon emission control. The carbon footprint depth of the capital cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was calculated by referring to the improved three-dimensional carbon footprint model. This paper used nighttime light data to fit the carbon footprint depth index. In addition, the spatio-temporal evolution and distribution characteristics of the carbon footprint depth of the capital cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were analyzed using hot spot analysis and trend surface. The spatial quantile model was used to study the influencing factors of carbon footprint depth. The results shows that: (1) From 2010 to 2019, the carbon footprint depth indices of Wuhan, Nanchang and Changsha all showed an upward trend. In 2010, the normalized carbon footprint depth index of the capital cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River showed the characteristics of Wuhan>Nanchang>Changsha. In 2015 and 2019, the normalized carbon footprint depth index of the capital cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was presented in the form of Wuhan>Changsha>Nanchang. The high value ranges of normalized carbon footprint depth in Wuhan, Nanchang and Changsha all expand from the central urban area of the city to the surrounding areas; (2) From 2010 to 2019, the normalized carbon footprint depth indices of Wuhan, Nanchang, and Changsha all clustered at high values at the 1% significance level. From the spatial trend plane, it can be seen that the normalized carbon footprint depth index of the capital cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is "high in the middle—low on both sides" in the east—west direction. In the north—south direction, the distribution pattern developed from "high in the north and low in the south" to "low in the middle—high on both sides", and the north was significantly higher than the south. (3) Influencing factors such as population density, total industrial output value, total energy, and per capita carbon emissions all have positive effects on carbon footprint depth, and the correlation coefficients of each influencing factor at different quantiles of carbon footprint depth are significantly different. Wuhan, Nanchang, and Changsha put forward differentiated proposals respectively.
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