开征VOCs环境保护税的环境与经济影响分析：以河北省为例

潘若曦; 王佳邓; 吴健

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2023.09.10

开征VOCs环境保护税的环境与经济影响分析：以河北省为例

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2023.09.10

中国人民大学环境学院，北京　100872

基金项目: 国家社科基金专项项目(No.18VSJ100)；国家社会科学基金重大项目(No.09&ZD052)

详细信息

作者简介:
潘若曦（1997-），女，安徽滁州人，panrx@ruc.edu.cn

通讯作者:
吴健(1973-)，女，安徽歙县人，教授，博士，博导，主要从事环境保护财政政策与市场工具研究， jianwu@ruc.edu.cn

中图分类号: X321；F812.2
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- 文章访问数: 60
- HTML全文浏览量: 13
- PDF下载量: 15
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-03-23
- 修回日期: 2023-07-18
- 网络出版日期: 2023-09-21

Environmental and Economic Impact Analysis of Levying VOCs Environmental Protection Tax: A Case Study of Hebei Province

School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

Funds: Major Project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (No.18VSJ100); National Social Science Foundation of China (No.09&ZD052)

摘要

摘要: 当前挥发性有机物(VOCs)控制的经济手段处于政策真空期，污染形势严峻，“十四五”时期开征VOCs环境保护税对大气污染防治有重要意义. 本研究聚焦河北省，测算其2018年VOCs排放清单，基于可计算的一般均衡(CGE)模型，构建依据VOCs排放量征税的环境模块，在不同VOCs环境保护税开征情景下对VOCs减排、二氧化碳减排效果及宏观经济与行业影响进行分析. 结果表明：①开征VOCs环境保护税能带来VOCs排放的显著下降，税收规模较大. ②开征VOCs环境保护税对居民收入、GDP、总消费和总出口等会产生一定的负面影响. ③VOCs环境保护税政策具有减污降碳协同作用. ④减排效应及产出冲击具有行业异质性，重点排放行业有一定的税负压力. 因此，建议开征VOCs环境保护税，可先对重点排放行业开征，再依据管控要求逐步扩大范围，可从减排潜力最大且减排成本最低的行业入手；同时，加强研究VOCs减排技术，与经济手段共同作用，减少征税的经济负面影响. 另外应进一步明确VOCs和二氧化碳协同减排机理，发掘环境税收的减污降碳协同增效作用.
- 挥发性有机物(VOCs) /
- 环境保护税 /
- CGE /
- 减排效果 /
- 减污降碳 /
- 经济影响
Abstract: Current economic regulation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) control is in a policy vacuum period, and the pollution situation is severe. The imposition of VOCs environmental protection tax during the ‘14th Five-Year Plan’ period is of significant importance for air pollution prevention and control. This study focuses on Hebei Province, estimating its VOCs emission inventory in 2018. Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, an environmental module based on VOCs emission taxation is constructed to analyze the effects of VOCs emission reduction, carbon dioxide emission reduction, and macroeconomic and industry impacts under different scenarios of VOCs environmental protection tax. The results indicate that: (1) Levying VOCs environmental protection tax can significantly reduce VOCs emissions, with a large tax revenue scale. (2) Levying VOCs environmental protection tax has certain negative impacts on household income, GDP, total consumption and total exports. (3) VOCs environmental protection tax policy has a synergistic effect on pollution reduction and carbon reduction. (4) The emission reduction effect and output impact have industry heterogeneity, and key emission industries face certain tax burden pressure. Therefore, it is recommended to impose VOCs environmental protection tax, initially targeting key emission industries, and gradually expanding the scope based on the control requirements, which can start from the industry with the greatest emission reduction potential and the lowest emission reduction costs. Meanwhile, research on VOCs emission reduction technologies should be strengthened, together with economic regulation to reduce the negative impacts of taxation on the economy. Additionally, it is important to further clarify the mechanism of synergistic reduction of VOCs and carbon dioxide, and explore the synergistic effect of environmental taxation on pollution reduction and carbon reduction.
- volatile organic compounds (VOCs) /
- environmental protection tax /
- CGE /
- emission reduction effect /
- pollution reduction and carbon reduction /
- economic impact

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图 1 不同VOCs环境保护税征收情景对VOCs减排的影响

Figure 1. Effects of different VOCs environmental protection tax collection scenarios on VOCs emission reduction

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 不同VOCs环境保护税征收情景对二氧化碳减排的影响

Figure 2. Effects of different VOCs environmental protection tax collection scenarios on CO₂ emission reduction

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 不同VOCs环境保护税征收情景对宏观经济的影响

Figure 3. Effects of different VOCs environmental protection tax collection scenarios on macroeconomic

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图 4 分行业不同VOCs环境保护税情景对VOCs排放的影响

Figure 4. Effects of different VOCs environmental protection tax scenarios on VOCs emissions by industry

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 分行业不同VOCs环境保护税情景对二氧化碳排放的影响

Figure 5. Effects of different VOCs environmental protection tax scenarios on CO₂ emissions by industry

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 分行业不同VOCs环境保护税情景对产出的影响

Figure 6. Effects of different VOCs environmental protection tax scenarios on output by industry

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表 1 河北省2018年宏观社会核算矩阵

Table 1. Macroeconomic social accounting matrix of Hebei Province in 2018 10⁸元

项目	生产活动	商品	劳动	资本	企业	居民户	地方政府	中央政府	资本账户	存货变动	外省	国外	合计
生产活动		97 229.93											97 229.93
商品	69 288.02					12 635.64	7 726.21	2 575.40	14 396.49	52.68	17 866.61	2 243.00	126 784.06
劳动	13 960.47												13 960.47
资本	10 074.46												10 074.46
企业				7 649.65									7 649.65
居民户			13 960.47	2 302.99	6 417.48		61.97						22 742.90
地方政府	2 049.25				390.39	3 880.90		1 547.15					7 867.70
中央政府	1 857.73	33.15			601.08	5 821.37	62.92						8 376.26
资本账户					240.70	404.98	16.60	4 253.71			10 345.67		15 261.65
存货变动									52.68				52.68
外省份		28 212.28											2 8212.28
国外		1 308.70		121.82					812.48				2 243.00
合计	97 229.93	126 784.06	13 960.47	10 074.46	7 649.65	22 742.90	7 867.70	8 376.26	15 261.65	52.68	28 212.28	2 243.00

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表 2 CGE模型部门划分

Table 2. Department division of CGE model

序号	SAM部门名称	I/O表对应编号	序号	SAM部门名称	I/O表对应编号
S1	农林牧渔产品和服务	1	S11	金属制造业	14、15
S2	煤炭采选产品	2	S12	机械设备制造业	16、17、18、19
S3	石油和天然气开采产品	3	S13	电子通信及仪器仪表业	20、21
S4	其他采选业	4、5	S14	其他制造业	22、23
S5	食品和烟草	6	S15	电力、热力的生产和供应	24
S6	纺织服装业	7、8	S16	燃气生产和供应	25
S7	木材加工及造纸印刷业	9、10	S17	水的生产和供应	26
S8	石油、炼焦产品和核燃料加工品	11	S18	建筑	27
S9	化学产品	12	S19	交通运输、仓储和邮政	28
S10	非金属制造业	13	S20	其他服务业	29～42

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表 3 VOCs环境保护税政策情景描述

Table 3. VOCs environmental protection tax policy scenarios description

项目		政策情景描述
基准情景		不征收
第一大类征收情景	KEY1	重点行业征收，税率2 400元/t
	KEY2	重点行业征收，税率4 800元/t
	KEY3	重点行业征收，税率6 000元/t
	KEY4	重点行业征收，税率7 200元/t
	KEY5	重点行业征收，税率9 600元/t
	KEY6	重点行业征收，税率12 000元/t
第二大类征收情景	ALL1	全行业征收，税率2 400元/t
	ALL2	全行业征收，税率4 800元/t
	ALL3	全行业征收，税率6 000元/t
	ALL4	全行业征收，税率7 200元/t
	ALL5	全行业征收，税率9 600元/t
	ALL6	全行业征收，税率12 000元/t

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 不同情景下河北省2018年VOCs环境保护税收入

Table 4. VOCs environmental protection tax revenue of Hebei Province in 2018 under different scenarios

政策情景	VOCs环境保护税收入/(10⁸元)	政策情景	VOCs环境保护税收入/(10⁸元)
KEY1	8.215	ALL1	12.264
KEY2	16.384	ALL2	24.436
KEY3	20.450	ALL3	30.486
KEY4	24.504	ALL4	36.512
KEY5	32.575	ALL5	48.494
KEY6	40.597	ALL6	60.378
注：现有大气污染物环境保护税税目中，已包含了18种VOCs，但种类较少. 环境保护税税法规定，对于同一排污口的大气污染物，仅对污染当量数从大到小排序前三位的污染物进行征收，通常为二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟粉尘等，VOCs在目前环境保护税征管中的收入规模极小. 因此不影响上述分析.

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表 5 重点行业不同情景下税负占主营业务收入的比重

Table 5. The proportion of tax burden in main business income of key industries under different scenarios

政策情景	占比/%
政策情景	化学产品	木材加工和造纸印刷	石油、炼焦产品和核燃料
KEY1	0.306	0.227	0.079
KEY2	0.610	0.452	0.157
KEY3	0.761	0.564	0.196
KEY4	0.912	0.676	0.235
KEY5	1.212	0.899	0.312
KEY6	1.510	1.120	0.389
ALL1	0.305	0.226	0.079
ALL2	0.609	0.451	0.157
ALL3	0.759	0.563	0.196
ALL4	0.909	0.674	0.234
ALL5	1.208	0.895	0.311
ALL6	1.503	1.115	0.387

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