气候变化情景下中国外来入侵植物黄顶菊潜在分布区模拟与早期预警
Simulation of the potential range of Flaveria bidentis and early warning in China under Climate Change Scenarios
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摘要: 20世纪90年代入侵我国的外来入侵植物黄顶菊威胁农业生产和生态安全,定量评估其潜在扩散动态可为其早期预警提供依据。基于黄顶菊在南美原产地分布数据和环境变量构建本土生态位模型,投影至我国并预测当前和未来气候情景下黄顶菊潜在分布格局。结果表明,黄顶菊在我国华北平原、东北平原、黄土高原、云贵高原广泛适生,实际分布区东南侧、西侧和东部侧存在较大面积中-高潜在适生区,黄顶菊在中国没有达到其最大潜在分布范围。增温导致黄顶菊潜在适生区明显向北扩张、向南收缩,分布中心由华北中纬度地区向东北高纬度地区迁移。综合比对黄顶菊实际分布状况及其在不同气候情景下潜在分布变化趋势,结合国家和地方管控需求,以地市级行政区为管控单元划定重点管控区、重点监测区和重点预防区,建议在黄顶菊扩散前缘区加强监测阻截力度,逐步消除黄顶菊发生区生态影响,重点监测其潜在适生分布,抑制其向邻近地区进一步扩散蔓延。Abstract: As a harmful alien invasive plant that invaded China in the 1990s, Flaveria flaveria threatened agricultural production and ecological security. Quantitative assessment of its potential dispersal can provide a basis for early warning. Based on distribution data and environmental variables, niche models were constructed in the native South American region and transferred to China, were used to predict its potential distributions under current and future climate conditions. The results showed that the potential distribution of F. bidentis in China includes: the North China plain, the Northeast plain, the Loess Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Compared with the F. bidentis actual distribution area, there has a large area of medium-high[1] potential suitable area on its southeast, west and east sides, F. bidentis was still in the expansion phase and has not yet occupied all climatic suitability areas in China.With the increase of temperature, the potential habitat area of F. bidentis expanded northward and shrank southward, and the distribution center shifted from the middle latitude of North China to the high latitude of northeast China. By comparing the actual distribution area and potential distribution shifts trends of F. bidentis under climate change scenarios, combined with national and local control needs, key control areas, key monitoring areas and key prevention areas was delimited. It was suggested that monitoring intercepts should be enforced around F. bidentis distribution edges, gradually eliminate the ecological impact of F. bidentis, monitoring its potential suitable distribution, to find the invaded populations as early as possible and prevent or mitigate its expansion toward neighboring areas.
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Key words:
- Flaveria bidentis /
- potential distribution /
- early monitoring and warning /
- Maxent
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