Abstract:
As a harmful alien invasive plant that invaded China in the 1990s,
Flaveria flaveria threatened agricultural production and ecological security. Quantitative assessment of its potential dispersal can provide a basis for early warning. Based on distribution data and environmental variables, niche models were constructed in the native South American region and transferred to China, were used to predict its potential distributions under current and future climate conditions. The results showed that the potential distribution of
F. bidentis in China includes: the North China plain, the Northeast plain, the Loess Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Compared with the
F. bidentis actual distribution area, there has a large area of medium-high[1] potential suitable area on its southeast, west and east sides,
F. bidentis was still in the expansion phase and has not yet occupied all climatic suitability areas in China.With the increase of temperature, the potential habitat area of
F. bidentis expanded northward and shrank southward, and the distribution center shifted from the middle latitude of North China to the high latitude of northeast China. By comparing the actual distribution area and potential distribution shifts trends of
F. bidentis under climate change scenarios, combined with national and local control needs, key control areas, key monitoring areas and key prevention areas was delimited. It was suggested that monitoring intercepts should be enforced around
F. bidentis distribution edges, gradually eliminate the ecological impact of
F. bidentis, monitoring its potential suitable distribution, to find the invaded populations as early as possible and prevent or mitigate its expansion toward neighboring areas.