基于县域尺度的福建省土地利用碳排放效应分析
Analysis of Carbon Emission Effect of Land Use in Fujian Province Based on County Scale
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摘要: 开展土地利用变化碳排放科学核算以及未来情景模拟,是土地覆被变化研究领域的热点问题,也是落实“碳达峰 碳中和”决策部署的核心主题之一。该文基于统计数据、空间数据等多源数据融合,构建福建省自下而上的县域耕地、林地、草地、建设用地碳排放及其变化的核算体系,核算2005—2020年福建省县域土地利用碳排放。结合莫兰指数、LISA聚类与空间马尔科夫链、地理探测器方法分析了2005—2020年福建省土地利用碳排放的时序特征、演变格局、影响机理。结果表明:①福建省土地利用碳排放总体呈现空间异质性和集聚效应,碳排放空间演变存在路径依赖和空间锁定特征。②福建省土地利用碳排放存在空间溢出效应,并且低低集聚区碳排放类型跨级转移活跃。③人口规模是促进福建省土地利用碳排放增长的首要因素。Abstract: Carrying out scientific accounting of carbon emissions from land use change and future scenario simulation is a hot issue in the field of land cover change research, and it is also one of the core themes for implementing the decision-making and deployment of "carbon neutrality in peak carbon dioxide emissions". Based on the fusion of multi-source data such as statistical data and spatial data, this study constructed a bottom-up accounting system of carbon emissions and their changes of cultivated land, woodland, grassland and construction land in counties of Fujian Province, and calculated the carbon emissions of land use in counties of Fujian Province from 2005 to 2020. Combined with Moran index, LISA clustering, spatial Markov chain and geographic detector method, the time series characteristics, evolution pattern and influencing mechanism of carbon emissions from land use in Fujian Province from 2005 to 2020 were analyzed. The results are as follows: ① The carbon emissions from land use in Fujian Province generally show spatial heterogeneity and agglomeration effect, and the spatial evolution of carbon emissions has the characteristics of path dependence and spatial locking. ② There is a spatial spillover effect of carbon emissions from land use in Fujian Province, and the carbon emissions in low and low concentration areas are actively transferred across levels. ③ Population size is the primary factor to promote the growth of carbon emissions from land use in Fujian Province.
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Key words:
- carbon emissions from land use /
- Spatial Markov chain /
- Random forest
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