乌江流域固碳服务时空格局及驱动机制
Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Driving Mechanism of Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Services in the Wujiang River Basin
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摘要: 生态系统提供的固碳服务是实现碳中和的重要手段之一,明确环境因子的驱动机制是有效提高固碳服务的重要基础. 该研究以乌江流域为研究区域,利用InVEST模型核算乌江流域2000—2020年碳储量,并综合考虑社会-经济-自然系统中的影响因素,使用随机森林和PDP模型分析各因子对固碳服务的贡献度及驱动机制. 结果表明:①乌江流域固碳服务空间上呈东北高西南低的分布特征,表现为下游>中游>上游,时间上呈显著增加趋势,且上游的增速大于中游及下游;②时空尺度中,自然地表类因子均是对固碳服务贡献最大的环境要素,其中植被覆盖度在空间尺度中贡献度最高,为55.08%;坡度在时间尺度的贡献度最高,为34.46%;③各影响因子在时空中呈现出不同的驱动机制,其中人口密度的驱动机制变化最强烈,在空间中,固碳服务随人口增加而降低,在时间上,固碳服务整体随人口增加而增加;④2000—2020年,人类活动的改变是乌江流域固碳服务增加的重要原因,气候变化也是较重要影响因素. 研究显示,固碳服务的高低虽受限于自然地表类环境因子,但人类活动的正面干扰能显著提高固碳服务.Abstract: The carbon sequestration services provided by ecosystems are one of the most important means toachieve carbon neutrality. Clarifying the driving mechanisms of environmental factors is an important basis for effectively improving carbon sequestration services of eocystems. This study takes the Wujiang River Basin as a study area, uses the InVEST model to valuate carbon storage in the Wujiang River Basin from 2000 to 2020, integrates the influencing factors in the social-economic-natural system, and uses the random forest and PDP models to analyse the contribution of each factor to the carbon sequestration services and the driving mechanisms. The results show that: ① the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration services in the Wujiang River Basin is characterized by high value in the northeast and low in the southwest, showing a trend of downstream > midstream > upstream and a significant increase over time, and the growth rate at the upstream is greater than that at the midstream and downstream; ② in the spatial and temporal dimensions, natural surface factors are the environmental factors that contribute most to the carbon sequestration service, among which vegetation cover has the highest contribution, which is 55.08% in the spatial scale and slope has the highest contribution, with 34.46% in the temporal scale; ③ the influencing factors show different driving mechanisms in space and time, with the strongest change in the driving mechanism of population density, in space, the carbon sequestration service decreases with population increase, and over time, the carbon sequestration service increases with population increase overall; and ④ from 2000 to 2020, the change of human activities is an important reason for the increase of carbon sequestration services of ecosystems in the Wujiang River Basin, and climate change is also an important influencing factor. The results show that although the level of carbon sequestration services is limited by natural surface environmental factors, the positive disturbance of human activities can significantly increase carbon sequestration services of the basin ecosystems.
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