降低长三角地区O3暴露风险的减排路径优化研究
Optimization of abatement paths to reduce the risk of O3 exposure in the Yangtze River Delta
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摘要: 近年来随着大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度下降,臭氧(O3)污染逐渐凸显。鉴于O3暴露给人群带来较大的健康风险,以及O3浓度与其前体物氮氧化物(NOX)及挥发性有机物(VOCs)排放的非线性关系,O3污染的防治需要在分析O3人群暴露风险特征的基础上,对前体物的减排路径进行优化。长三角是我国O3浓度高、暴露大、前体物排放集中的区域,其减排路径的优化分析对于全国而言也有借鉴意义。该研究以国家环境空气质量二级标准的O3浓度限值160μg/m3为目标,基于长三角地区的人群暴露风险探讨了不同减排路径下的O3污染控制效果。首先运用WRF-CAMx模型,依据不同的NOx和VOCs减排比模拟了121种减排情景作为基础数据集,引入响应曲面模型(RSM)来划分长三角不同城市的控制区类型,并结合人口暴露风险指数来评价O3暴露的风险程度,将中高暴露风险地区与控制区耦合,设置NOx区和VOCs区;然后设置了7条不同的NOx/VOCs路径,分析了不同路径的控制效率,给出了不同区域的最佳减排策略。研究显示,长三角中部的城市主要是VOCs控制区,南部和北部的城市以NOx控制为主;O3中高暴露风险的城市数约占城市总数的41%,集中在长三角中部和北部;考虑总体控制效率,NOx区和VOCs区效率最高的路径分别是NOx单向减排和VOCs单向减排;考虑单位步长的控制效率,随着NOx减排量的增加,城市网格中的O3形成机制从VOCs控制逐渐过渡为NOx控制;为保证VOCs控制型网格的平稳过渡及控制效率,VOCs区的最佳减排比设置为1/3<NOx/VOCs<1/2,考虑到“NOx不利”影响及控制效率,NOx区的最佳减排比设置为1<NOx/VOCs<2。Abstract: Ozone (O3) pollution has come to the forefront in recent years as atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations have declined. Given the large health risk of O3 exposure to the population and the non-linear relationship between O3 concentration and its precursors, nitrogen oxides (NOX) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions, the prevention and control of O3 pollution requires the optimization of precursor emission reduction pathways based on the analysis of the risk characteristics of O3 population exposure. The Yangtze River Delta is a region with high O3 concentration, large exposure, and concentrated precursor emissions in China, and the analysis of its emission reduction pathway optimization has implications for the whole country. In this study, the O3 concentration limit of the national ambient air quality secondary standard of 160 μg/m3 was used as the target, and the O3 pollution control effects under different abatement paths were explored based on the population exposure risk in the Yangtze River Delta region. Firstly, the WRF-CAMx model was applied to simulate 121 abatement scenarios based on different NOx and VOCs abatement ratios as the base data set, and the response surface model (RSM) was introduced to distinguish the sensitivity of O3 to NOx and VOCs in different cities of the Yangtze River Delta, and the population exposure risk index was combined to evaluate the risk level of O3 exposure, coupling the medium and high exposure risk areas with the control area. NOx zones and VOCs zones were set; then seven different NOx/VOCs pathways were set, the control efficiency of different pathways was analyzed, and the best emission reduction strategies for different regions were given. The study shows that cities in the central Yangtze River Delta are mainly VOCs control zones, and cities in the south and north are mainly NOx control type; the number of cities with high exposure risk in O3 accounts for about 41% of the total number of cities, mainly concentrated in the central and northern Yangtze River Delta; considering the overall control efficiency, the paths with the highest control efficiency are NOx one-way emission reduction and VOCs one-way emission reduction for NOx and VOCs zones, respectively. Considering the control efficiency per unit step, at the early stage of emission reduction, the unit step efficiency of NOx and VOCs zones shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing with the increase of NOx/VOCs, but with the increase of NOx emission reduction, the O3 formation mechanism in the urban grid gradually transitions from VOCs control to NOx system, and the unit step efficiency of NOx zones increases with the increase of NOx/VOCs; to ensure In order to ensure the smooth transition and control efficiency of VOCs-controlled grid, the optimal reduction ratio of VOCs reduction path is set to 1/3<NOx/VOCs<1/2, and the optimal reduction ratio of NOx reduction path is set to 1<NOx/VOCs<2, considering the "NOx adverse" effect and control efficiency.
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Key words:
- Yangtze River Delta /
- O3 exposure risk /
- city classification /
- NOx /
- VOCs /
- pathway optimization
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