基于系统动力学的京津冀区域减污降碳政策仿真研究

曾元; 张文港; 孙靖文; 孙李傲; 吴军; 高庆先

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2023.09.11

基于系统动力学的京津冀区域减污降碳政策仿真研究

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2023.09.11

1.
中国科学院大学经济与管理学院，北京　100190
2.
北京化工大学经济管理学院，北京　100029
3.
中国环境科学研究院，北京　100012

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(No.2016YFF0204405)

详细信息

作者简介:
曾元（1978-），男，河南永城人，2522952984@qq.com

通讯作者:
吴军(1974-)，男，湖北襄阳人，教授，博士，博导，主要从环境建模与政策仿真研究， wujun@mail.buct.edu.cn

中图分类号: X506；C94
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- 文章访问数: 73
- HTML全文浏览量: 26
- PDF下载量: 28
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-04-23
- 修回日期: 2023-08-23
- 网络出版日期: 2023-09-21

Simulation Study on Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction Policies in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on System Dynamics

1.
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
2.
Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
3.
Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2016YFF0204405)

摘要

摘要: 京津冀地区作为我国最早开展污染协同治理的区域，一直在探索区域污染协同治理的政策性改善措施. 为探究不同减污降碳政策对京津冀区域污染治理效果的影响，构建了一个由经济、能源、人口、环境、科技及政策6个要素组成的区域减污降碳系统动力学模型，综合考虑废水、废气、固体废物等污染物以及CO₂对环境的影响，研究4种情景下不同政策组合对区域减污降碳的效果. 结果表明：①从区域整体治理成效看，除经济增长政策外的所有政策情景均表现出明显的治理效果. 产业结构调整政策、能源结构调整政策和环保投入政策下的环境相对污染度在2030年将分别下降13.789%、0.282%、8.852%. ②从各污染物评价指标看，经济增长政策更有利于降低废水污染物排放量和单位GDP能耗，产业结构调整政策更有利于降低固体废物、废气和CO₂等污染物排放量. ③相较于单一政策，组合政策能够进一步降低环境相对污染度，但随着组合数量的增加，减污降碳效果并未表现出明显的政策协同效应. 研究显示，虽然减排政策对不同污染物治理表现出不同的政策效应，但产业结构调整仍然是实现京津冀区域减污降碳的关键途径.
- 京津冀区域 /
- 减污降碳 /
- 系统动力学 /
- 政策模拟 /
- 三废
Abstract: The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the first region in China to conduct collaborative pollution management. It has been exploring and developing policies and various measures for collaborative regional pollution management. In order to investigate the effects of different emission reduction policies on pollution management in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, a system dynamics model of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been constructed. The system dynamics model consists of six sub-systems: economy subsystem, energy subsystem, population subsystem, environment subsystem, technology subsystem, and policy subsystem. The model takes into account the environmental impact of wastewater, waste gas, solid waste, and carbon dioxide. Four policy scenarios are considered in the model according to different pollution reduction and carbon reduction objectives. The effects of both single policy and combined policies on pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are analyzed. The empirical results show the following findings: (1) In terms of the overall regional governance levels, all policy scenarios except the economic growth policy show significant governance effects. In 2030, under the industrial restructuring policy scenario, the energy restructuring policy scenario, and the environmental protection input policy scenario, the relative environmental pollution levels will decrease by 13.789%, 0.282% and 8.852%, respectively. (2) The evaluation indicators of each pollutant shows that the economic growth policies will promote the reduction of the wastewater discharge and energy consumption per unit of GDP, and the industrial restructuring policies will lead to the reductions in the pollutants such as solid waste, waste gas and carbon dioxide. (3) Compared with the single policy scenario, the combination of policies can further reduce the relative environmental pollution. However, as the number of the combination policies increases, no significant synergistic effect has been observed. The management insight drawn from the results is that different emission reduction policies have different effects on different pollutant management. Among them, industrial restructuring is still the key policy to achieve pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
- Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region /
- pollution reduction and carbon reduction /
- system dynamics /
- policy simulation /
- three wastes

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图 1 京津冀区域减污降碳系统结构示意

Figure 1. Structure diagram of pollution reduction and carbon reduction system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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图 2 京津冀区域减污降碳模型存量流量示意

Figure 2. Pollution reduction and carbon reduction model of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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图 3 2005—2030年京津冀区域减污降碳模型灵敏度检验

Figure 3. Sensitivity test of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region pollution reduction and carbon reduction model, 2005-2030

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图 4 单一政策情景下的仿真结果

Figure 4. Results of simulation under a single policy scenario

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图 5 两种政策组合情景下的仿真结果

Figure 5. Results of simulation under two policy combination scenarios

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图 6 3种政策组合情景下的仿真结果

Figure 6. Results of simulation under three policy combination scenarios

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图 7 4种政策组合情景下的仿真结果

Figure 7. Results of simulation under four policy combination scenarios

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表 1 京津冀区域减污降碳政策

Table 1. Pollution reduction and carbon reduction policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

政策类型	调控因子	调控方式	数据来源
经济增长政策	人口增长率	+30%	文献[37]
经济增长政策	GDP增长率	+30%	文献[37]
产业结构调整政策	工业产值占GDP比重	−3%	文献[34]
能源结构调整政策	化石能源消耗增长率	−10%	文献[34]
能源结构调整政策	非化石能源消耗增长率	+4%	文献[34]
环保投入政策	环保投入比重	+2%	文献[34]

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表 2 情景设置

Table 2. Scenario setting

情景类型	调控政策	情景编号
基准情景	无	S0
单一政策情景	经济增长政策	S1
	产业结构调整政策	S2
	能源结构调整政策	S3
	环保投入政策	S4
2种政策组合情景	经济增长政策+产业结构调整政策	S12
	经济增长政策+能源结构调整政策	S13
	经济增长政策+环保投入政策	S14
	产业结构调整政策+能源结构调整政策	S23
	产业结构调整政策+环保投入政策	S24
	能源结构调整政策+环保投入政策	S34
3种政策组合情景	经济增长政策+产业结构调整政策+能源结构调整政策	S123
	经济增长政策+产业结构调整政策+环保投入政策	S124
	经济增长政策+能源结构调整政策+环保投入政策	S134
	产业结构调整政策+能源结构调整政策+环保投入政策	S234
4种政策组合情景	经济增长政策+产业结构调整政策+能源结构调整政策+环保投入政策	S1234

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表 3 减污降碳最优政策总结

Table 3. Summary of optimal policies for pollution and carbon reduction

情景类型	环境相对污染度	废水污染物		固废	废气污染物		单位GDP能耗	CO₂
情景类型	环境相对污染度	COD	氨氮化物	固废	SO₂	NO_x	单位GDP能耗	CO₂
单一政策情景	S2	S1	S1	S2	S2	S2	S1	S2
2种政策组合情景	S24	S12	S14	S24	S24	S24	S13	S24
3种政策组合情景	S124	S124	S124	S234	S234	S234	S123	S234

下载: 导出CSV

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