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典型干旱区水资源生态足迹、承载力与负载指数:动态特征及预测——以新疆为例
张振龙,孙 慧,苏洋
作者单位E-mail
张振龙 新疆大学经济与管理学院新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心 18999921777@163.com 
孙 慧 新疆大学经济与管理学院;新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心 186999921777@163.com 
苏洋 新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院  
摘要:
为实现新疆水资源与社会、经济和生态环境的协调发展,测算了新疆2000—2015年水资源生态足迹、承载力和水资源负载动态特征,并利用ARIMA模型对2020年新疆水资源生态足迹、承载力及赤字情况进行预测。结果表明:①2000—2015年,新疆总水资源生态足迹总体略有下降,但波动剧烈;用水结构中存在着其他用水部门侵占生态用水现象;2016—2020年,新疆水资源生态足迹总体呈“W”型波动下降趋势。②新疆水资源生态承载力不断下降,由2000年的0.13×104hm2降至2014年的0.07×104hm2,降幅达46.15%,处于非常严峻的生态赤字状态,赤字率达99%以上;2016-2017年,新疆水资源生态承载力继续波动下降,降幅超过生态足迹。③2000—2015年新疆水资源负载指数大幅上升,水资源负载级别从Ⅳ级变为Ⅱ级,水资源利用程度提高,开发潜力下降;2016—2020年,新疆水资源负载指数从5.54快速升至6.50,负载级别虽仍为Ⅱ级,但未来潜力不断下降,开发条件越加困难。研究显示,新疆水资源生态赤字程度已远远超过水资源承载能力,采取有效措施实现水资源对经济社会发展的有效支撑和持续利用是当务之急。
关键词:  水资源  生态足迹  承载力  预测  新疆
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学(71463056)、新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2016D01B054)
Dynamic Characteristics and Prediction of Ecological Footprint, Carrying Capacity and Load index of Water Resources in Typical Arid Area-- Taking Xinjiang As An Example
张振龙,孙 慧,SU YANG
Abstract:
In order to realize the coordinated development of water resources, social, economic and ecological environment in Xinjiang, we calculated and analyzed the dynamic characteristics of carrying capacity, ecological footprint and load index of water resources.And using ARIMA model,we also predicted ecological footprint, carrying capacity and load situation of water resources in 2020 in Xinjiang. Results showed that:(1)The ecological footprint of the total water resources in Xinjiang in 2005—2014 had a little downward tendency. There is a phenomenon that other departments seized the ecological environmental water. The prediction results showed that the ecological footprint of water resources in Xinjiang province has a generally "W" - type fluctuation downward tendency from 2016 to 2020 .(2)The carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang in 2000—2014 showed a rapid downward tendency, which declined from 0.13×104 hm2 to 0.07×104 hm2,with a decrease of 46.15%, and Xinjiang was in a state of severe ecological deficit with the ecological deficit rate is above 99%. The prediction results showed that the ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang had a downward tendency in 2016—2017. (3)The load index of water resources in Xinjiang showed a steady upward trend, and the load level of water resources was changed from gradeⅣto gradeⅡ.The utilization of water resources had been improved, and water resources development potential declined. The prediction results showed that the Xinjiang water resource load index rocketed from 5.54 to 6.50 from 2016 to 2020. Although the level was still II, the utilization rate of water resources continues to improve.With the declining of future potential,the development conditions are getting more and more difficult.The results indicated that the ecological deficit of water resources in Xinjiang had far exceeded the carrying capacity of water resources. It is imperative to take effective measures to realize the effective support and sustainable utilization of water resources for economic and social development.
Key words:  ecological footprint  carrying capacity  Load index  forecast  water resource