引用本文:马占云,冯 鹏,高庆先,孔珊珊,许 霜,居 辉,付加锋,等.华北地区能源及交通行业对极端天气的敏感性分析[J].环境科学研究,2015,28(4):495-502.
MA Zhanyun,FENG Peng,GAO Qingxian,KONG Shanshan,XU Shuang,JU Hui,FU Jiafeng,et al.Analysis of Sensitivity of Energy and Transportation Industries to Extreme Weather in Northern China[J].Reserrch of Environmental Science,2015,28(4):495-502.]
【打印本页】   【HTML】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  【EndNote】   【RefMan】   【BibTex】
←前一篇|后一篇→ 过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览 1163次   下载 3015 本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
分享到: 微信 更多
华北地区能源及交通行业对极端天气的敏感性分析
马占云1, 冯 鹏2, 高庆先1, 孔珊珊3, 许 霜1, 居 辉4, 付加锋1
1.中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012 ;2.中国资源卫星应用中心, 北京 100094 ;3.北京方迪经济发展研究院, 北京 100120 ;4.中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京 100081
摘要:
选取1987─2010年华北五省市区(北京、天津、河北、山西、内蒙古)代表极端天气的HDD(采暖度日)、CDD(降温度日)和P(降水距平百分率)3个指标,通过建立Cobb-Douglas和超越对数2类生产函数,分析极端天气对华北五省市区的能源、交通2个行业产值影响的敏感性. 结果表明:CDD、P对2个行业产值的影响较小,HDD的影响较大. 能源行业产值对HDD、CDD及P的静态敏感系数最大值分别为0.29、0.10、0.07,表明这3个指标对能源行业产值的影响依次降低;交通行业产值对上述3个指标的敏感系数同样也依次减少. 动态敏感性分析表明,能源消费结构和交通运输方式决定了CDD、P对五省市区2个行业产值的影响较小,而HDD的影响相对较大且年际波动也大,即冰雪、寒潮对能源、交通2个行业产值的影响程度远大于高温热浪、洪涝、干旱等极端天气. 山西交通行业产值对极端天气的敏感性在五省市区中表现最为显著,HDD、CDD和P每增加1%,该省交通行业产值将分别变化-0.11%、0.11%、0.03%. 敏感性分析结果与五省市区极端天气事件的分布和2个行业产值的损失相吻合.
关键词:  极端天气  敏感性  Cobb-Douglas生产函数  超越对数生产函数
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2012CB955904);南京信息工程大学重点实验室开放基金项目(KHK1307)
Analysis of Sensitivity of Energy and Transportation Industries to Extreme Weather in Northern China
MA Zhanyun1, FENG Peng2, GAO Qingxian1, KONG Shanshan3, XU Shuang1, JU Hui4, FU Jiafeng1
1.Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China ;2.China Center for Resources Satellite Data and Application, Beijing 100094, China ;3.Beijing Fangdi Institute of Economic Development, Beijing 100120, China ;4.Research of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract:
Abstract:Based on the Cobb-Douglas and trans-log production functions, and using the heating degree days (HDD), cooling degree days (CDD), percentage of precipitation anomalies (P) as well as energy and transportation production indexes, the sensitivity to extreme climate change of energy and transportation industries in five provinces (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei Province, Shanxi Province, Neimonggu) in Northern China were analyzed. The results showed that energy and transportation industries were slightly impacted by CDD and P, and were significantly affected by HDD. In the energy industry, the maximum values of HDD, CDD and P were 0.29,0.10 and 0.07, respectively, which were the same as those in the transportation industry. CDD and P slightly impacted industrial value due to the energy consumption structure and transportation mode, while HDD greatly influenced them in Northern China. This indicated that ice, snow and cold waves have more seriously affected the energy and transportation industries than high temperature, heat waves and floods, drought, and other extreme weather. The most significant differences of HDD, CDD and P in the transportation industry occurred in Shanxi Province, where a 1% increase of HDD and CDD and P caused output changes of -0.11%, 0.11% and 0.03% in the transportation sector, respectively. The values of sensitivity were associated with extreme climate change and its losses in Northern China.
Key words:  extreme weather  sensitivity  Cobb-Douglas production function  trans-log production function