引用本文:宋福忠,李凯旋,李烨楠,张代钧,卢培利,王飞,等.基于模糊数学的排污权交易基准价测算模型及其应用[J].环境科学研究,2018,31(1):194-200.
SONG Fuzhong,LI Kaixuan,LI Yenan,ZHANG Daijun,LU Peili,WANG Fei,et al.A Fuzzy Mathematics based on Pricing Model for Emissions Trading Benchmark Price and Its Application[J].Reserrch of Environmental Science,2018,31(1):194-200.]
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基于模糊数学的排污权交易基准价测算模型及其应用
宋福忠1, 李凯旋1, 李烨楠1, 张代钧1, 卢培利1, 王飞2
1. 重庆大学资源及环境科学学院, 重庆 400044;2. 重庆资源与环境交易所, 重庆 401147
摘要:
为了解决排污权交易基准价的制定这一排污权交易制度设计的关键问题,在对影响排污权价值的因素进行理论分析的基础上,利用模糊数学理论建立了包含人均国民生产总值、环境容量、污染物排放绩效3个影响因素的排污权价值模糊数学评价模型,结合污染物削减成本构建了排污权交易基准价测算模型.利用该套模型,建立了重庆市COD和氨氮排污权价值评价体系,计算得到重庆市人均国民生产总值、污染物环境排放量、工业污染物排放绩效等影响因素对排污权价值的权重分别为0.540、0.163和0.297,COD和氨氮排污权价值的模糊综合评价结果向量分别为(0,0.715,0.285,0,0)和(0,0.865,0.135,0,0);根据重庆市废水COD和氨氮削减成本,测算了重庆市废水COD和氨氮的排污权交易基准价格分别为5 900和16 000元/t,处于全国排污权交易试点省市确定的基准价的中上水平.该套模型将排污权基准价测算过程中具有模糊性、不确定性的影响因素进行了定量表达,使测算结果更符合客观实际,并且具有实用价值,但在排污权价值影响因素的筛选及其量化等方面有待进一步研究.
关键词:  排污权交易  基准价  模糊数学  定价
DOI:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2017.03.54
分类号:X321
基金项目:重庆市环境保护局环保科技项目(201207);重庆市主要污染物排放权交易管理中心环保科技项目(CQPWJY-201402,CQPWJY-201404)
A Fuzzy Mathematics based on Pricing Model for Emissions Trading Benchmark Price and Its Application
SONG Fuzhong1, LI Kaixuan1, LI Yenan1, ZHANG Daijun1, LU Peili1, WANG Fei2
1. College of Resources and Environmental Science Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China;2. Chongqing Resource and Environment Exchange, Chongqing 401147, China
Abstract:
The calculation of the benchmark price of emissions trading is considered as the key point in the design of emissions trading system. Based on the theoretical analysis to the factors that influence emissions value and the fuzzy mathematics theory, a fuzzy mathematics evaluation model is proposed, in which the gross domestic product, environment capacity and emission efficiency are taken into account. According to the proposed model, the evaluation system of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia nitrogen emission rights in Chongqing City is established. The results indicate that the weights of the per capita GDP, pollutant environmental discharge and industrial pollutant discharge performance are 0.540, 0.163, and 0.297, respectively; and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector of COD and ammonia emission right valuer are (0, 0.715, 0.285, 0, 0) and (0, 0.865, 0.135, 0, 0), respectively. Integrating the survey of reduction costs of COD and ammonium in Chongqing City, the emissions trading benchmark prices of them are measured to be 5,900 and 16,000 RMB/t, respectively, which are in the upper level compared with the other pilot provinces and cities in China. The results confirm that this model can be used to describe the fuzzy and indeterminate of influence factors during the benchmark price calculation process. This study is of certain practical significance for enriching the pricing method of emission trading and providing reference for reasonable pricing of emissions trading benchmark price, but the selection and quantification of the influencing factors of the emission right value can be further studied.
Key words:  emissions trading  benchmark price  fuzzy mathematics  pricing