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气候变化对浙江省大气污染的影响
毛敏娟
作者单位E-mail
毛敏娟 浙江省气象科学研究所 mayammj@mail.ustc.edu.cn 
摘要:
开展气候变化对大气污染影响的研究有利于加深对大气污染形成机理的认识。该文利用1996—2015年浙江省大气成分、气象观测资料,分析气候变化对大气污染的影响。结果表明,近20年来浙江省呈现年高压天气日数增多、年均气温升高、降水集中及年均净辐射、日照时数、风速、气温日较差和蒸发量都下降的气候变化事实。气候变化引起大气污染扩散能力下降,1996-2015年间杭州市和浙江省年均大气扩散指数分别下降了0.55和0.81,降幅分别达到35.73%和42.69%。大气扩散指数与ρ(PM10)、ρ(PM2.5)及年霾日数之间存在显著性强反相关关系,当大气扩散指数增大时,大气颗粒物浓度和年霾日数均下降,反之亦然。杭州市大气扩散指数与ρ(PM10)、ρ(PM2.5)之间的相关系数分别为0.73和0.75。杭州市和浙江省大气扩散指数与年霾日数之间的相关系数分别达到0.77和0.78,T检验值则分别为28.88和30.81,说明由气候变化引起的大气扩散能力改变是影响大气污染的重要原因,但不同大气成分受气候变化的影响程度不同。影响ρ(PM10)的关键气候要素是降水量、风速及相对湿度等,影响ρ(PM2.5)的主要是辐射、气温,影响ρ(SO2)的主要是气温,影响ρ(NO2)及ρ(NO3-)、ρ(NH4+)的主要是辐射。总体来说,浙江省近20年的气候变化事实可能有利于促进ρ(PM10)、ρ(PM2.5)、ρ(NO2)及ρ(O3)等上升,促进ρ(SO2)、ρ(NO3-)、ρ(SO42-)、ρ(NH4+)等下降。
关键词:  浙江省  气候变化  大气污染  大气扩散
DOI:
分类号:X51
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(41475134);浙江省公益性社会发展重点项目(2014C23004)
The Influence of Climatic Change on air pollution in Zhejiang
MAO Minjuan
Abstract:
The research on the influence of climate change on air pollution is helpful to deepen the understanding of the formation mechanism of air pollution. Based on the comprehensive observations of the complex atmospheric pollutions and meteorology from 1996 to 2015, the influence of climatic change on air pollution was investigated in Zhejiang. The results showed the obvious climatic changes of more frequent high-pressure weather, the increasing of temperature as well as precipitation concentration, and even the decreasing of net radiation, sunshine duration, wind speed, daily temperature range and evaporation capacity are found. The consequence of climatic change is the decline of the capacity of atmospheric diffusion. The annual average atmospheric diffusion coefficients descend to 0.55 and 0.81 that the descent percentages are nearly 35.73% and 42.69% in Hangzhou and Zhejiang, respectively. The atmospheric diffusion index presents the strong inverse correlation with the concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and annual haze day, and the concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 as well as annual haze day presents decreasing trend with the atmospheric diffusion index increasing and vice verse. The correlation coefficients between the atmospheric diffusion index and the concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 are 0.73 and 0.75 in Hangzhou, respectively. The correlation coefficients between the atmospheric diffusion index and annual haze day are 0.77 and 0.78 in Hangzhou and Zhejiang, respectively, and T-values in test are 28.88 and 30.81. The result illustrates the capacity of atmospheric diffusion induced by climatic change is an important influence factor of atmospheric pollution, but the different pollutants are differently affected by climatic change. The key climatic elements are precipitation, wind speed and relative humidity influenced on PM10 concentration, and then atmospheric radiation, air temperature as well as precipitation on PM2.5 concentration. The most important climatic element on SO2 and SO42- concentration is air temperature. Different from sulfide, the most significant climatic element on NO2, NO3- and NH4+ concentration is atmospheric radiation. On the whole, Climatic change in Zhejiang in recent 20 years may be benefit to the concentration increases of PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 as well as the concentration decreases of SO2, NO3-, SO42- and NH4+.
Key words:  Zhejiang Province  climatic change  air pollution  atmospheric diffusion