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中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易结构及对国内环境的影响分析
蓝艳, 花瑞祥, 柴伊琳, 李盼文
生态环境部对外合作与交流中心
摘要:
在“一带一路”倡议背景下,厘清贸易的环境效应、优化贸易结构,不仅是中国生态文明建设的内在要求,更是绿色“一带一路”建设的必然要求. 该研究基于联合国统计署建立的UN COMTRADE数据库,分析了中国与“一带一路”沿线63个国家的进出口贸易结构及其环境贡献. 结果表明:①2013—2016年,中国与“一带一路”沿线不同地区的贸易呈较强的地区分异性,主要表现为与南亚、东南亚、中欧和南欧的贸易呈上升趋势,与中亚、西亚、独联体的贸易呈下降趋势. 其中,东南亚是中国在“一带一路”沿线最大的地区贸易伙伴,贸易额占比达48.2%,南亚则是中国在“一带一路”沿线贸易增速最快的区域,增速达15%. ②中国对“一带一路”沿线重点国家出口的结构较为均衡,总额排名前十章海关编码(HS)分类工业商品平均占比为74%;但进口的集中度较高,进口前十章HS分类工业商品平均占比为92%. ③2015年,中国对“一带一路”沿线重点国家出口的工业品中包含的COD、NH3-N、SO2和NOx排放量分别为892、83、3749和2415t. 与2013年相比,COD、NH3-N、SO2分别下降了14.9%、20%、4.2%,NOx则增加了6.7%,而贸易总额增加了8.5%. ④中国对“一带一路”各沿线重点国家出口的工业品中包含的水污染物(COD、NH3-N)和大气污染物(SO2、NOx)排放量,都呈下降趋势或增幅小于贸易额增幅. ⑤与“一带一路”沿线重点国家的出口贸易对中国环境影响的效应为正的技术效应、负的结构效应和规模效应. 研究结果可为落实推动共建“一带一路”向高质量发展转变、推进国内产业结构优化转型提供支撑.
关键词:  一带一路  贸易结构  环境效应  UN COMTRADE
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:生态环境部财政项目(No.2110199)
Analysis of Structure and Environmental Effect of Trade between China and the BRI Participating Countries
蓝艳, 花瑞祥, 柴伊琳, 李盼文
Abstract:
Under the background of the “Belt and Road” Initiative (BRI), identifying the environmental effects of trade, as well as optimizing the trade structure, are both the inherent requirements of China's ecological civilization construction and the inevitable requirement for the construction of Green “Belt and Road”. Based on the UN COMTRADE database, the study analyzes the import and export trade structure between China and the BRI participating countries. In addition, the study also calculated the COD, NH3-N, SO2 and NOx emissions embedded in industrial products exported by China to 14 key BRI participating countries. The results show that: ① The trend of trade between China and the BRI participating countries was different by region from 2013 to 2016. China’s trade with South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central and South Europe was on the rise. While its trade with Central Asia, West Asia, and the CIS was on the decline. Southeast Asia was China's largest regional trading partner, while South Asia was the most potential trading partner, with the fastest growing trade volume between China and South Asia. ② The structure of industrial products exported by China to key BRI participating countries was relatively balanced, and the average percentage of the top industrial products listed in the first 10 HS Chapters was 74%. However, the import structure was much more concentrated, with the average proportion of the top industrial products listed in the first 10 HS Chapters reaching 92%. ③In 2015, the COD, NH3-N, SO2 and NOx emissions embedded in industrial products exported by China to 14 key BRI participating countries were 892 t, 83 t, 3749 t and 2415 t respectively, which decreased by 14.9%, 20%, 4.2% and -6.7% compared with 2013. At the same time, the trade between China and key BRI participating countries increased by 8.5%. ④ The load of water pollution (COD and NH3-N) and air pollution (SO2 and NOx) embedded in the industrial products exported by China to all key countries was either on the decline, or the increase was less than trade value.⑤ The effect of export trade between China and key BRI participating countries to the environment of China was positive technical effect, negative structural effect and scale effect. The study provided support to the transformation to high quality development under BRI and the optimization and upgrade of China’s domestic industrial structure.
Key words:  Belt and Road  trade structure  environmental effects  UN COMTRADE