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中国旅游业全要素碳生产率动态演进及其影响因素
王凯1, 马月琴1, 甘畅1, 张淑文1, 刘浩龙2
1.湖南师范大学旅游学院;2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室
摘要:
为探清中国旅游业全要素碳生产率(total factor carbon productivity, TFCP)增长演化特征及影响因素,运用Malmquist-Luenberger指数测算2000—2017年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)旅游业TFCP及其分解(不含港澳台及西藏自治区数据,下同),借助核密度估计揭示其动态演进趋势,并建立面板模型探究影响旅游业TFCP的关键因素. 结果表明:①2000—2017年,中国旅游业TFCP平均增长率为6.2%,呈现中部高于东部、东部高于西部的空间增长格局,且技术进步是其增长的主要驱动力. ②共有28个省(自治区、直辖市)旅游业TFCP呈现正增长,其中吉林省增幅最高,而青海省、宁夏回族自治区旅游业TFCP出现下降;旅游业碳排放技术“创新者”主要为天津市、河南省、山西省、上海市和内蒙古自治区. ③旅游业累积TFCP和累积技术进步均存在明显提升,但二者省际差距有所扩大;而累积技术效率虽然省际差距在缩小,但效率提高幅度不明显,且呈一定倒退趋势. ④全国范围内,旅游业经济规模、产业结构和对外开放程度分别在1%、1%和10%的显著性水平上正向促进旅游业TFCP;旅游业能源强度、旅游业碳排放结构及城镇化水平在1%的显著性水平上负向影响旅游业TFCP;环境规制对其影响不显著. 研究显示,中国旅游业TFCP虽波动性较大,但整体呈增长趋势,技术进步的贡献高于技术效率的贡献,今后在依靠技术进步提升旅游业TFCP的同时,更要注重改善技术效率.
关键词:  旅游业  全要素碳生产率  Malmquist-Luenberger指数  核密度估计
DOI:
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基金项目:湖南省社会科学基金项目(No.18YBA318)
The Dynamic Evolution of Total Factor Carbon Productivity in China's Tourism Industry and Its Influencing Factors
WANG Kai1, MA Yueqin1, GAN Chang1, ZHANG Shuwen1, LIU Haolong2
1.Tourism College of Hunan Normal University;2.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Abstract:
In order to explore the growth characteristics and influencing factors of total factor carbon productivity (TFCP) in China's tourism industry, the paper uses the Malmquist-Luenberger index to calculate the tourism TFCP and its decomposition in 30 provinces of China from 2000 to 2017(excluding the data of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet Autonomous Region, the rest is the same). Then dynamic evolution is revealed by the kernel density estimation, and a panel model is established to explore the key factors of tourism TFCP. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2017, the average growth rate of tourism TFCP is 6.2% in China, indicating a growth pattern in which the highest rate, in descending order of magnitude, is the central region, eastern region and western region. The technology progress is the main driving force for the tourism TFCP. (2) The tourism TFCP in 28 provinces show positive growth, among which Jilin Province holds the highest growth rate, but Qinghai Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region decline. The “innovators” of tourism carbon emission frontier technology are mainly Tianjin City, Henan Province, Shanxi Province, Shanghai City and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. (3) The accumulated TFCP and accumulated technology progress in tourism have seen significant improvement, while the inter-provincial gap has expanded. Although the accumulated technology efficiency is narrowing, the efficiency improvement is not obvious and it has a certain backward trend. (4) Around the country, the scale of tourism economy, industrial structure and opening degree promote the tourism TFCP at the level of significance of 1%, 1% and 10%. The energy intensity of tourism, the tourism carbon emission structure and urbanization level all negatively affect the tourism TFCP at a significant level of 1%, while the environmental regulation has no obvious affection. The research shows that although the TFCP in China's tourism is relatively volatile, the overall trend is increasing. And the contribution of technology progress is higher than that of technology efficiency. In the future, China should pay more attention to improving the efficiency while relying on technology progress to promote the tourism TFCP.
Key words:  tourism  total factor carbon productivity  Malmquist-Luenberger index  kernel density estimation