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广东省CO2排放变化的社会经济影响因素
吴晓慧1, 余亚东2, 梁赛1
1.北京师范大学环境学院;2.华东理工大学商学院
摘要:
作为我国经济最为发达的省份,广东社会经济可持续发展面临CO2排放量增长的挑战。从多角度分析广东省CO2排放变化的社会经济影响因素,有助于其实现低碳发展。基于投入产出模型,从生产、需求和供应角度分析1987—2015年广东省CO2排放量变化;此外,采用结构分解分析方法,从需求和供应角度量化广东省各种社会经济因素对CO2排放变化的相对贡献。结果表明:①与生产端相比,需求侧和供给侧的研究有助于识别不同的关键行业,如建筑业(需求侧)、金融和保险业(供给侧)。②碳排放强度降低是减少广东省CO2排放的主要因素,而人均最终需求水平和人均初始投入增加是推动广东省CO2排放增加的主要因素。③生产结构、最终需求结构和初始投入结构变化导致CO2排放量略有增加,表明广东省具有较大的通过调整结构性因素减排CO2的潜力。综上,建议除了生产端CO2减排措施外,广东省还应采取需求侧和供给侧相关措施,如优化消费行为、产品分配行为和初始投入结构。
关键词:  CO2排放  社会经济影响因素  投入产出分析  结构分解分析
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
Socioeconomic Factors Influencing CO2 Emission Changes in Guangdong
Abstract:
As the most developed province in China, the sustainable economic and social development of Guangdong Province is facing the challenge of increasing CO2 emissions. Analyzing the socioeconomic factors of CO2 emission changes from multiple perspectives is conducive to the low-carbon development in Guangdong Province. Based on input-output analysis, this study investigates the evolution of CO2 emissions from the production, demand, and supply perspectives during 1987–2015. We also quantify the relative contributions of socioeconomic factors to Guangdong’s CO2 emission changes during this period from both demand and supply perspectives, using structural decomposition analysis. The results show that: (1) Compared with production-side results, demand-side and supply-side results can identify new critical sectors leading to CO2 emissions (e.g., the Construction sector for demand-side results and the Finance and Insurance sector for supply-side results). (2) The decline in CO2 emission intensity is the major factor mitigating CO2 emissions, while per capita final demand and per capita primary inputs are dominate factors driving CO2 emission increments in Guangdong during 1987–2015. (3) Production structure, final demand structure and primary input structure changes lead to slight increase in CO2 emissions, indicating great potentials for future CO2 mitigation by optimizing structural factors in Guangdong. To sum up, in addition to production-side CO2 reduction measures, Guangdong should also pay attention to demand-side and supply-side measures such as optimizing behaviors of product consumption, product allocation, and primary inputs.
Key words:  CO2 emissions  socioeconomic drivers  input-output analysis  structural decomposition analysis