PM2.5和O3对前体物减排和气象变化的响应及其政策启示
Responses of PM2.5 and O3 to emission reduction and meteorology variation and their policy implications
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摘要: 大气十条实施以来,我国重点区域PM2.5浓度快速下降,O3浓度逐步上升,大气污染控制形势已由单一PM2.5控制转变为PM2.5和O3的协同控制。了解PM2.5和O3对前体物排放变化和气象条件变化的响应,对制定PM2.5和O3协同控制策略具有重要意义。研究通过使用三维空气质量模式和响应曲面模型,评估了前体物变化和气象条件变化后PM2.5和O3浓度的响应,依据解析的响应关系提出了前体物减排、联防联控区域划分和目标设定等方面的政策建议。结果表明:①VOCs减排对降低各省PM2.5和O3浓度均有利,NOx的减排量不足会增加大部分重点区域的O3浓度和京津冀地区的PM2.5浓度,为避免年评价值反弹需要的VOCs/NOx减排比平均为45%和20%;②O3需要更大范围的联防联控,对于京津冀地区,需要引入河南和山东的联合控制可能是需要考虑的,对于长三角和珠三角地区,还需要联合江西、福建进行控制;③气象条件对PM2.5和O3背景值的影响较大,使用三年或五年滑动平均可以有效降低各区域人为源减排后PM2.5和O3浓度的波动(PM2.5:35-81%和60-86%,O3:40-67%和53-87%),采用多年滑动平均用以去除气象条件的影响有助于科学设定和考核PM2.5和O3的目标。Abstract: Since the Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control, the PM2.5 concentrations in key regions has decreased rapidly while O3 concentration has gradually increased. The demand of coordinated control of PM2.5 and O3 is urgent for the Chinese government. Understanding the responses of PM2.5 and O3 to changes in precursor emissions and meteorological conditions is of great significance for formulating coordinated control strategies of PM2.5 and O3. By using the air quality model and response surface model, this study evaluated the response of 2.5 and 3 concentrations to the changes of precursors and meteorological conditions. Based on the analytical response relationship, policy recommendations on precursor emission reduction, regional division of joint prevention and control, and target setting were proposed. Results show that: (1) VOCs emission reduction is beneficial to reduce both PM2.5 and O3 concentration in all provinces. Insufficient NOx emission reduction will increase O3 concentration in most key areas and PM2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the VOCs/NOx emission reduction ratio is 45% and 20% on average to avoid this adverse effect. For the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the joint control of Henan and Shandong may need to be considered. For the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the joint control of Jiangxi and Fujian may be more important in the future. (3) Meteorological conditions have a great influence on PM2.5 and O3 background values. The effects of three-year moving average and five-year moving average on reducing PM2.5 fluctuation in each region are 35-81% and 60-86%, and the effects of reducing O3 fluctuation are 40-67% and 53-87%. Applying multi-year moving averages to mitigate the variation of meteorological conditions helps to scientifically set and assess the targets for PM2.5 and O3.
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Key words:
- PM2.5 /
- O3 /
- coordinated control /
- meteorology changes /
- response surface model
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