面向减污降碳的集中供热结构调整路径研究
Structure Adjustment Path of Central Heating Sector from Perspective of Synergistic Reduction of Air Pollutants and CO2 Emissions
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摘要: 集中供热是事关国计民生的刚性需求,是能源消费组成的重要部门,是大气污染物减排的重要着力点.开展面向减污降碳的集中供热结构调整路径分析对我国实现双碳目标、建设美丽中国具有重要意义.通过构建2020年集中供热碳污耦合排放清单,摸清碳污排放现状;考虑热电联产供热管网覆盖范围以及生物质资源空间分布,分析热电联产并网、煤改气以及煤改生物质等不同治理方式的碳污减排潜力;结合情景分析,识别碳污减排关键路径,为开展集中供热减污降碳相关工作提供参考.结果表明:①热电联产、燃煤工业锅炉分别是集中供热部门CO2和大气污染物的主要排放源,东北及内蒙古区域是该部门碳污排放热点区域.燃煤工业锅炉污染控制水平及热效率较低是开展集中供热部门减污降碳的重要切入点.②热电联产供热管网难以全面覆盖35t/h以下燃煤工业锅炉,约42%的小容量燃煤工业锅炉需要采用其他方式进行综合改造.③生物质能源利用潜力空间差异较大制约供热部门低碳化.如华北及东北地区,难以满足本区域燃煤工业锅炉生物质改造的能源需求.④深入挖掘生物质资源、健全生物质成型燃料产业、推动热电联产并网是实现集中供热部门减污降碳的重要路径.该路径下集中供热部门SO2、NOX、可过滤细颗粒物、可凝结颗粒物及CO2预计分别排放1.9×105 t、2.6×105 t、1.0×104 t、1.1×105 t及5.0×108 t.Abstract: Central heating is a rigid demand to the national economy and people's livelihood in China. It is also important for energy consumption and air pollutant emission reduction. Adjustment path for central heating is of great significance for China to realize the dual carbon goal and build a beautiful China. Current CO2 and air pollutants emission were obtained based on establishing emission inventory of central heating in 2020. Considering cogeneration heating pipe network and biomass resources, emission reduction potential of different measures, including cogeneration, coal to gas and coal to biomass, were analyzed. Based on scenario analysis, the key path of carbon and air pollutants emission reduction was identified. The results show that : ①Cogeneration and coal-fired industrial boilers are the main emission sources of CO2 and air pollutants respectively in the central heating sector. The Northeast China and Inner Mongolia regions are the hotspots of CO2 and air pollutants emissions in the heating sector. ②Cogeneration heating pipe network is difficult to fully cover coal-fired industrial boilers with capacity ≤35t/h, about 42 % of small capacity coal-fired industrial boilers need to retrofitted by other methods. ③The spatial heterogeneity of biomass resources limit the low carbonization of heating sector. For example, it is difficult to meet the energy needs of the coal to biomass for coal-fired industrial boiler in North China. ④Exploration of biomass resources, developing biomass briquettes industry and promoting cogeneration is an important way to CO2 and air pollutants emission reduction in central heating sector. Under this path, SO2, NOx, filterable fine particulate matter, condensable particulate matter and CO2 may emit 1.9×105 t, 2.6×105 t,1.1×104 t,1.1×105 t and 5.0×108 t respectively in central heating sector.
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