减污降碳协同视角下沿海制造业发达地区产业结构调整路径研究
Industrial Structure Adjustment Path in Coastal areas with Developed Manufacturing Industries from the Perspective of Synergistic Reduction of Pollution and Carbon Emissions
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摘要: 碳达峰碳中和是我国重大战略决策,对推进产业转型升级和绿色发展具有重要意义。实现经济增长与资源能源消耗、污染物和碳排放的总量与强度双控制,是推进“双碳”目标的重要支撑。沿海地区制造业发达,污染物和碳排放量大,寻找减污降碳协同增效路径对区域绿色转型具有重大现实意义。本文以浙江省宁波市为对象,对全部经济门类的产业结构开展实证研究,运用多准则决策模型和情景分析法,以能源、水资源、四种主要污染物和二氧化碳为约束条件建立了产业结构优化调整模型,将各产业增加值占比的变化程度作为决策变量,筛选出产业结构调整平稳、减排幅度大的调整方案。制造业作为宁波市经济发展的主体,贡献了较高比例的污碳排放和能源资源消耗,本文探究了4.5%、5.5%、6.5%三种年均经济增速情景下宁波市通过产业结构调整实现减污降碳协同增效的潜力。研究显示,宁波市2020-2030年间预期可实现累计97%的经济增长,且能满足区域资源环境的约束限制。进而面向2030年提出宁波市产业结构优化调整路径建议:严格控制高排放制造业的准入门槛,提升第一产业和采矿业的资源能源利用效率,推进电力、热力的生产与供应业等存量行业的减污降碳,鼓励发展高附加值的第三产业和循环经济产业。本文可为宁波市全面推进产业减污降碳协同增效提供决策参考,并为类似地区开展产业结构优化推动绿色发展提供研究范式和决策参考。Abstract: Carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality, a grand strategic goal in China, is of great significance to promoting eco-transformation and green development of the manufacturing industry. Achieving decoupling of economic growth with resource-energy consumption and pollutants-carbon dioxide emissions will underpin the goal substantially. The coastal regions in China, driven by the manufacturing industry, have been well developed but also witnessed intensive pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, synergizing the reduction of pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions has great practical significance for regional eco-transformation. Taking Ningbo City in the Zhejiang Province as a case study, this article conducts empirical research on the industrial structure adjustment of two-digital level industries by establishing a multi-criteria decision-making model under different scenarios. The model takes energy, water resources, four main pollutants, and carbon dioxide as constraints, and the degree of change in the proportion of the added value of each industry as the decision-making variable, and finally proposes the adjustment scheme with a relatively reasonable industrial structure variation and the largest emissions reduction. The manufacturing industries, as the main body of Ningbo's economic development, contributes a large part of pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions, and consume intensive energy and water resources. This paper explores the potential of Ningbo City to synergize the pollutants and carbon dioxide reduction through industrial structure adjustment under the three annual economic growth rates of 4.5%, 5.5%, and 6.5%. Results show that Ningbo City can achieve a maximum cumulative economic growth of 97% from 2020 to 2030 while achieving the goal of pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions reduction. On this basis, this paper puts forward suggestions for Ningbo City to facilitate industrial structure adjustment targeting the year 2030, including controlling the entry threshold for emission-intensive manufacturing industries, improving resource and energy productivity in the primary sector and mining industry, reducing pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions of electricity and heat production and supply industries further, and encouraging the development of high value-added tertiary industries and circular economy industry. The research can provide a decision-making reference for synergizing the reduction of pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions of the whole sector in Ningbo City and can also provide a valuable benchmark for promoting industrial structure optimization in other similar regions.
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