城市减污降碳能源消费与经济增长潜力评价研究
Evaluation of energy consumption and economic growth potential of urban pollution reduction and carbon reduction
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摘要: 开展减污降碳协同研究对于城市实现大气环境质量改善与低碳转型发展具有重要意义。本研究以国家大气污染防治重点区域汾渭平原的渭南市为案例,基于社会经济发展现状及能源供需结构特征,采用LMDI分解方法,量化评估了渭南市能源消费与经济增长的关系,各影响因素对能源消费的贡献情况;并运用LEAP模型,通过构建多种情景模拟分析污染减排、能源结构改善及产业结构调整等政策对渭南市未来能源消费、大气污染物减排潜力影响。结果表明,能源结构改善、产业结构优化、交通运输调整具有显著的污染物与温室气体协同减排效果,而压减落后产能、工业炉窑改造、工业污染物排放标准升级等传统环境治理的潜力逐渐缩小。由此提出相关建议,即积极推进产业结构优化升级、着力改善能源结构、加快推进交通运输结构优化,推动经济社会 绿色低碳转型发展不断取得新成效。Abstract: China will fully integrate climate change into the overall strategy of national economic and social development, take active measures to effectively control greenhouse gas emissions from the key industrial sectors, and promote green and low-carbon development in urban and rural construction. Green has become a bright background for high-quality economic development. While the economy and society continue to develop healthily, the intensity of carbon emissions has decreased significantly.In order to achieve atmospheric environmental quality compliance and low-carbon transition development, it is of great significance for cities to carry out collaborative study on pollution and carbon reduction. This study takes Weinan City as a case, which is located in the Fenwei Plain, one of national key regions for air pollution prevention and control. Based on the social and economic development status of Weinan and the characteristics of energy supply and demand structure, the paper uses the LMDI decomposition method to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Weinan, and the contribution of various influencing factors to energy consumption. Then using the LEAP model to construct multiple scenarios in order to analysis the impact of policies such as pollution reduction, energy structure improvement, and industrial structure adjustment on Weinan future energy consumption and potential air pollutant reduction. The results show that, the improvement of energy structure, the optimization of industrial structure, and the adjustment of transportation have a significant effect on synergistic emission reduction of pollutants and greenhouse gases. But the potential of traditional environmental governance policies is diminishing, such as the reduction of backward production capacity, the transformation of industrial furnaces, and the upgrading of industrial pollutant emission standards. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, focus on improving the energy structure, and accelerate the optimization of the transportation structure.
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Key words:
- Greenhouse gas /
- energy consumption /
- LMDI decomposition method /
- LEAP model
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