2018—2021年京津冀“2+26”城市PM2.5与O3污染特征及气象影响
Characteristics of PM2.5 and O3 Pollution and Related Meteorological Factors in ‘2+26’ Cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2018 to 2021
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摘要: 为了解《打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划》期间(2018—2020年)以及之后(2021年)我国重点污染区域空气质量情况,并区分排放源控制与气象条件的贡献,本文利用逐小时监测的PM2.5、O3浓度以及气象要素数据,研究了2018—2021年京津冀及周边地区“2+26”城市PM2.5与O3污染特征,结合KZ (Kolmogorove Zurbenko)滤波方法定量分析了排放源与气象条件对PM2.5与O3浓度长期趋势的贡献. 结果表明:①2018—2021年“2+26”城市PM2.5浓度年均值与O3-8 h-90th浓度(O3日最大8 h平均浓度的第90百分位数)均呈逐年下降趋势. 2018—2021年PM2.5浓度年均值分别为60、57、51和45 μg/m3,河北省南部、河南省与山东省南部PM2.5浓度年均值较高;O3-8 h-90th浓度分别为198、195、179和171 μg/m3,2018年保定市、石家庄市、聊城市、晋城市的O3-8 h-90th浓度(>210 μg/m3)均较高,而2021年太原市O3-8 h-90th浓度(192 μg/m3)较高. ②PM2.5与O3-8 h浓度(O3日最大8 h平均浓度)的长期分量在大部分城市受气象影响较明显. 受气象影响的PM2.5浓度长期分量在2018—2020年无明显趋势,在2021年呈下降趋势;受排放影响的PM2.5浓度长期分量在2018—2020年呈下降趋势,在2021年无明显趋势. 受气象影响的O3-8 h浓度长期分量在2018—2020年呈下降趋势,2021年呈上升趋势;受排放影响的O3-8 h浓度长期分量在2018年呈下降趋势,在2019—2021年无明显趋势. ③11个气象因子中,温度与相对湿度对PM2.5与O3-8 h浓度变化的影响最大,当温度与相对湿度均比前一天升高时,更有利于PM2.5与O3-8 h浓度的同时升高. 研究显示,“2+26”城市PM2.5与O3污染受气象影响显著,温度与相对湿度的变化对判定PM2.5与O3-8 h浓度同时升高的现象有一定积极意义.Abstract: In order to understand the air quality in key polluted areas in China, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) were studied during the ‘Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defense’ from 2018 to 2020 and the following year in 2021. More specifically, the characteristics of PM2.5 and O3 compound pollution were analyzed by using hourly monitoring data of PM2.5 and O3 in ‘2+26’ cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas. In addition, the contributions of emission sources and meteorological factors to the long-term trend of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations were quantified based on KZ filtering method. The results showed that in recent years, the annual mean PM2.5 and the 90th quantile of maximum daily 8-hour average ozone (O3-8 h-90th) concentrations decreased in ‘2+26’ cities. The annual mean PM2.5 concentration was 60, 57, 51 and 45 μg/m3, respectively. The higher concentration of annual mean PM2.5 appeared in southern Hebei Province, Henan Province and southern Shandong Province. However, O3-8 h-90th concentration was 198, 195, 179 and 171 μg/m3, respectively. In 2018, O3-8 h-90th concentration was higher in Baoding, Shijiazhuang, Liaocheng and Jincheng (greater than 210 μg/m3), while Taiyuan O3-8 h-90th concentration was higher (192 μg/m3) in 2021. Futhermore, the long-term trend of PM2.5 and O3-8 h (maximum daily 8-hour average ozone) concentrations were more significantly influenced by meteorology. The long-term component of PM2.5 affected by meteorology showed no obvious trend from 2018 to 2020 and a decreasing trend in 2021, while the long-term component of PM2.5 affected by emissions showed a decreasing trend from 2018 to 2020 and no significant trend in 2021. The long-term component of O3-8 h concentration affected by meteorology showed an upward trend from 2018 to 2020 and a downward trend in 2021, while the long-term component of O3-8 h concentration affected by emissions showed a downward trend in 2018 and had no obvious trend from 2019 to 2021. Moreover, temperature and relative humidity have the greatest effect on the combination of PM2.5 and O3-8 h among the 11 meteorological factors. When the temperature and relative humidity increased together, it was more conducive to the simultaneous increase of PM2.5 and O3-8 h. The research shows that PM2.5 and O3 pollution in ‘2+26’ cities are significantly affected by meteorology, and the change of temperature and relative humidity has great significance for determining the simultaneous increase of PM2.5 and O3-8 h concentration.
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