京津冀NOx和VOCs边际减排成本曲线及协同减排研究
Collaborative reduction of NOx and VOCs in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the marginal abatement cost curves
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摘要: 京津冀地区细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度改善速度放缓,而臭氧(O3)污染不断加剧,PM2.5和O3的协同控制对于京津冀地区空气质量持续改善是十分关键且紧迫的。通过构建京津冀地区城市层面可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),模拟了PM2.5和O3的共同前体物(氮氧化物(NOx)和挥发性有机物(VOCs)的边际减排成本曲线,进而构建了京津冀地区PM2.5和O3协同控制评估模型,确定了在不同空气质量目标下减排成本最小的NOx和VOCs协同减排方案.研究表明:成本消耗最小的情景下,京津冀地区PM2.5和O3浓度达到国家二级标准时,NOx和VOCs的排放量相较于2017年需分别降低47.6%和42.8%,需要投入的总减排成本为992.81亿元.基于京津冀地区城市政策仿真平台构建的PM2.5和O3协同控制评估模型,为京津冀地区PM2.5和O3协同控制方案制定提供了技术支撑.Abstract: As a key area of air pollution prevention and control in China, the concentration of particulate matter (PM2.5) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (denoted as BTH) region is decreasing year by year, while the concentration of ozone (O3) is increasing. Therefore, the coordinated control of PM2.5 and O3 is very critical and urgent for the continuous improvement of air quality in BTH region. Constructed the city-level computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of BTH region and simulated the marginal abatement cost curve of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), which are the common precursors of PM2.5 and O3. On this basis, the evaluation model of PM2.5 and O3 co-control in BTH region is constructed, which can determine the NOx and VOCs co-emission reduction schemes with the least cost under different air quality targets. The results are as following. The total emissions of NOx and VOCs in BTH region will reduce by 47.6% and 42.8% compared to 2017, which can not only make the concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 meet the national secondary standards but also cost 992.81 billion yuan that is the lowest. In general, PM2.5 and O3 co-control evaluation model is built based on the BTH urban policy simulation platform, which can provide technical support for the formulation of PM2.5 and O3 co-control scheme in BTH region.
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