广东省交通碳排放核算及影响因素分析

庄颖; 夏斌

doi:10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2017.02.43

广东省交通碳排放核算及影响因素分析

doi: 10.13198/j.issn.1001-6929.2017.02.43

庄颖^{1, 2,},
夏斌^{1, 3, 4, 5, ,}

1.
中国科学院广州地球化学研究所, 广东广州 510640
2.
中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
3.
中山大学海洋石油勘探开发研究中心, 广东广州 510006
4.
广东省海洋资源与近岸工程重点实验室, 广东广州 510006
5.
海洋石油勘探与开发广东高校重点实验室, 广东广州 510006

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41372208

国家自然科学基金项目 40534019

详细信息

作者简介:
庄颖(1979-), 女, 江苏南通人, zhuangyingjs@163.com

通讯作者:
夏斌(1959-), 男, 江西泰和人, 教授, 博士, 博导, 主要从事资源环境与区域可持续发展研究, xiabin01@gmail.com

中图分类号: X32
计量
- 文章访问数: 1919
- HTML全文浏览量: 121
- PDF下载量: 1807
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-07-15
- 修回日期: 2017-12-23
- 刊出日期: 2017-07-25

Estimation of CO₂ Emissions from the Transport Sector in Guangdong Province, China and Analysis of Factors Affecting Emissions

ZHUANG Ying^{1, 2
,},
XIA Bin^{1, 3, 4, 5
, ,}

1.
Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3.
Offshore Oil Exploration and Development Center of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
4.
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Resources and Coastal Engineering, Guangzhou 510006, China
5.
Key Laboratory of Offshore Oil Exploration and Development of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Guangzhou 510006, China

Funds:

41372208

40534019

摘要

摘要: 交通领域是二氧化碳排放的重要领域，为研究广东省的交通碳排放及影响因素，利用IPCC（联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会）在温室气体清单指南中提供的方法估算了广东交通碳排放量，并应用LMDI分解法（对数平均指数法）对广东交通碳排放进行因素分解分析.结果表明:① 2001-2010年广东交通碳排放量从1 950.98×10⁴ t增至6 068.41×10⁴ t，其中交通运输业碳排放是广东交通碳排放的主体，私人交通碳排放已成为广东交通碳排放不可忽视的组成部分.② 交通运输业中的公路碳排放量占比最大，占56%~64%；铁路的碳排放量占比最小，占0.6%~1.6%；水运具有较大的节能优势；民航单位周转量碳排放量最高.③ 交通运输业发展水平、运输结构、私人汽车数量规模对广东交通碳排放增加的贡献率分别为68.79%、36.14%、18.66%，是拉动广东交通碳排放增长的主要因素；运输强度与能源强度的贡献率分别为-18.1%、-6.46%，是抑制交通碳排放增长的因素.广东可以通过采取优化交通运输结构、使用替代清洁能源等措施减少交通碳排放.
- 交通碳排放 /
- 影响因素 /
- LMDI模型 /
- 广东
Abstract: The transport sector is a major contributor of CO₂ emissions. The emissions from the transport sector in Guangdong province were estimated in accordance with the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The logarithmic mean Divisia index was used to measure the influence of commercial transport sector development, transport modal shift, private vehicle number, energy consumption per private vehicle, carbon emission coefficient, transport intensity and energy intensity on the CO₂ emissions of the Guangdong transport sector. The results showed that:(1) CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in Guangdong province increased from 19.51 million tons in 2001 to 60.68 million tons in 2010. The commercial transport sector was the major contributor of emissions, and private vehicle CO₂ emissions were indispensable. (2) CO₂ emissions from highways presented the largest share at 56%-64%, whereas the smallest share was from railways, which accounted for only 0.6%-1.6% of commercial transport sector CO₂ emissions. Aviation presented the highest CO₂ emissions per unit turnover, while waterways showed the lowest. (3) Commercial transport sector development, transport modal shift and private vehicle number positively affected the growth of emissions, with contributions of 68.79%, 36.13% and 18.66% respectively. By contrast, transport and energy intensities contributed negatively, with -18.1% and -6.46%, respectively. Therefore, the development of commercial transport industry, deterioration of transport modes and growing demand for private vehicles were responsible for the increasing CO₂ emissions of the transport sector, whereas transport and energy efficiencies limited the increase in emissions. Transport sector CO₂ emissions can be reduced through transport mode improvement and clean energy utilization.
- transport sector carbon emissions /
- affecting factors /
- LMDI model /
- Guangdong

HTML全文

图 1 广东交通碳排放量、交通运输业碳排放量及私人交通碳排放量

Figure 1. CO₂ emissions of transport sector in Guangdong:commercial transport sector and private vehicle

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 各种交通运输工具碳排放占比的变化

Figure 2. Contributions of commercial transport sector CO₂emissions by each transport mode

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 各种交通运输工具周转量占比的变化

Figure 3. Contributions of traffic turnover by each transport mode

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 私人汽车、私人载客汽车数量及私人交通碳排放占道路碳排放、交通碳排放的比例

Figure 4. Private vehicle numbers, private passenger vehicle numbers and the proportion of private vehicle CO₂ emissions to road and transport sector CO₂ emissions

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 2 广东交通碳排放影响因素分解贡献值与贡献率

Table 2. Decomposition effect of CO₂ emissions from the transport sector

时间	贡献值/(10⁴ t)
时间	交通能源碳排放因子效应(ΔC_YSE)	能源强度效应(ΔC_YI)	运输结构效应(ΔC_YG)	运输强度效应(ΔC_YF)	运输业发展水平效应(ΔC_Y)	私人汽车单位车辆能耗效应(ΔC_SI)	私人汽车数量规模效应(ΔC_k)
2001—2002年	4.91	4.60	166.97	-124.89	115.94	-17.06	32.49
2002—2003年	4.60	30.39	-70.82	-139.22	115.72	-5.80	31.65
2003—2004年	-1.55	-34.21	27.93	215.30	244.42	6.58	44.20
2004—2005年	1.17	139.12	393.57	-374.67	459.60	126.75	72.52
2005—2006年	0.36	-186.10	-20.23	-400.50	438.65	37.76	91.06
2006—2007年	-1.34	649.21	272.54	-133.01	347.16	-84.21	116.01
2007—2008年	-0.66	-220.99	273.70	-331.46	318.76	-42.10	96.81
2008—2009年	0.62	-312.29	464.77	203.82	242.94	-13.87	118.09
2009—2010年	0.03	-335.80	-20.57	339.39	549.26	23.99	165.43
2001—2010年	8.14	-266.06	1 487.86	-745.25	2 832.44	32.03	768.26
2001—2010年贡献率/%	0.20	-6.46	36.14	-18.10	68.79	0.78	18.66

下载: 导出CSV

表 1 各类能源二氧化碳排放系数

Table 1. Carbon emissions coefficient of different energy sources

能源种类	平均低位发热量/(kJ/kg)	单位热值含碳量/(kg/GJ)	碳氧化率/%	二氧化碳排放系数/(kg/kg)
汽油	43 070	18.9	100	2.98
柴油	42 652	20.2	100	3.16
燃料油	41 816	21.1	100	3.24
煤油	43 070	19.6	100	3.10

下载: 导出CSV

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