Estimation of CO2 Emissions from the Transport Sector in Guangdong Province, China and Analysis of Factors Affecting Emissions
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摘要: 交通领域是二氧化碳排放的重要领域,为研究广东省的交通碳排放及影响因素,利用IPCC(联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会)在温室气体清单指南中提供的方法估算了广东交通碳排放量,并应用LMDI分解法(对数平均指数法)对广东交通碳排放进行因素分解分析.结果表明:① 2001-2010年广东交通碳排放量从1 950.98×104 t增至6 068.41×104 t,其中交通运输业碳排放是广东交通碳排放的主体,私人交通碳排放已成为广东交通碳排放不可忽视的组成部分.② 交通运输业中的公路碳排放量占比最大,占56%~64%;铁路的碳排放量占比最小,占0.6%~1.6%;水运具有较大的节能优势;民航单位周转量碳排放量最高.③ 交通运输业发展水平、运输结构、私人汽车数量规模对广东交通碳排放增加的贡献率分别为68.79%、36.14%、18.66%,是拉动广东交通碳排放增长的主要因素;运输强度与能源强度的贡献率分别为-18.1%、-6.46%,是抑制交通碳排放增长的因素.广东可以通过采取优化交通运输结构、使用替代清洁能源等措施减少交通碳排放.Abstract: The transport sector is a major contributor of CO2 emissions. The emissions from the transport sector in Guangdong province were estimated in accordance with the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The logarithmic mean Divisia index was used to measure the influence of commercial transport sector development, transport modal shift, private vehicle number, energy consumption per private vehicle, carbon emission coefficient, transport intensity and energy intensity on the CO2 emissions of the Guangdong transport sector. The results showed that:(1) CO2 emissions of the transport sector in Guangdong province increased from 19.51 million tons in 2001 to 60.68 million tons in 2010. The commercial transport sector was the major contributor of emissions, and private vehicle CO2 emissions were indispensable. (2) CO2 emissions from highways presented the largest share at 56%-64%, whereas the smallest share was from railways, which accounted for only 0.6%-1.6% of commercial transport sector CO2 emissions. Aviation presented the highest CO2 emissions per unit turnover, while waterways showed the lowest. (3) Commercial transport sector development, transport modal shift and private vehicle number positively affected the growth of emissions, with contributions of 68.79%, 36.13% and 18.66% respectively. By contrast, transport and energy intensities contributed negatively, with -18.1% and -6.46%, respectively. Therefore, the development of commercial transport industry, deterioration of transport modes and growing demand for private vehicles were responsible for the increasing CO2 emissions of the transport sector, whereas transport and energy efficiencies limited the increase in emissions. Transport sector CO2 emissions can be reduced through transport mode improvement and clean energy utilization.
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Key words:
- transport sector carbon emissions /
- affecting factors /
- LMDI model /
- Guangdong
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表 2 广东交通碳排放影响因素分解贡献值与贡献率
Table 2. Decomposition effect of CO2 emissions from the transport sector
时间 贡献值/(104 t) 交通能源碳排放因子效应(ΔCYSE) 能源强度效应(ΔCYI) 运输结构效应(ΔCYG) 运输强度效应(ΔCYF) 运输业发展水平效应(ΔCY) 私人汽车单位车辆能耗效应(ΔCSI) 私人汽车数量规模效应(ΔCk) 2001—2002年 4.91 4.60 166.97 -124.89 115.94 -17.06 32.49 2002—2003年 4.60 30.39 -70.82 -139.22 115.72 -5.80 31.65 2003—2004年 -1.55 -34.21 27.93 215.30 244.42 6.58 44.20 2004—2005年 1.17 139.12 393.57 -374.67 459.60 126.75 72.52 2005—2006年 0.36 -186.10 -20.23 -400.50 438.65 37.76 91.06 2006—2007年 -1.34 649.21 272.54 -133.01 347.16 -84.21 116.01 2007—2008年 -0.66 -220.99 273.70 -331.46 318.76 -42.10 96.81 2008—2009年 0.62 -312.29 464.77 203.82 242.94 -13.87 118.09 2009—2010年 0.03 -335.80 -20.57 339.39 549.26 23.99 165.43 2001—2010年 8.14 -266.06 1 487.86 -745.25 2 832.44 32.03 768.26 2001—2010年贡献率/% 0.20 -6.46 36.14 -18.10 68.79 0.78 18.66 表 1 各类能源二氧化碳排放系数
Table 1. Carbon emissions coefficient of different energy sources
能源种类 平均低位发热量/(kJ/kg) 单位热值含碳量/(kg/GJ) 碳氧化率/% 二氧化碳排放系数/(kg/kg) 汽油 43 070 18.9 100 2.98 柴油 42 652 20.2 100 3.16 燃料油 41 816 21.1 100 3.24 煤油 43 070 19.6 100 3.10 -
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