2030年京津冀及周边城市群地区PM2.5污染控制路径
PM2.5 pollution control pathways in a city clusterofJing-Jin-Ji and surrounding areasin 2030
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摘要: 近年来,中国大气污染物减排效果明显,空气质量也随之大幅改善. 然而,部分重点区域如京津冀及周边城市群地区(“2%2B26”城市)PM2.5年均浓度依然较高,远超国家环境空气质量二级标准35 μg/m3. 为此,利用京津冀温室气体-空气污染物协同控制综合评估模型(Greenhouse gas-Air pollution Interactions and Synergies, GAINS-JJJ),模拟预测了2030年不同政策情景下区域空气质量改善情况,分别量化了结构调整与末端控制(BAT)政策对不同污染物减排的贡献,为“2%2B26”城市制定空气质量改善路径提供参考. 结果表明:①2017—2030年,由于一系列结构调整政策如“煤改清洁能源”,淘汰落后产能(如钢铁、水泥、焦化等),氮肥减量施用以及高挥发有机溶剂替代等措施的实施,以及末端控制政策,如钢铁、水泥与焦化等行业超低排放改造,重型柴油车与非道路移动机械尾气排放标准升级,标准化规模养殖与测土配方施肥技术等技术的推广,“2%2B26”城市的PM2.5年均浓度值达到34 μg/m3,实现了“美丽中国”的目标要求. ②2030年结构调整情景下,一次PM2.5、SO2、NOx、NH3与NMVOCs的排放相比2017年分别下降31%、44%、31%、5%和11%;结构调整%2B末端控制情景下,各项污染物的排放量减排比例分别达到75%、69%、77%、32%与52%. ③末端控制技术措施对一次PM2.5、NOx、NH3和NMVOCs减排的贡献要大于结构调整政策的贡献;而针对SO2的减排,结构调整政策则发挥了较大的作用. 研究显示,在2030年之前,“2%2B26”城市的末端控制技术措施仍具有较大的污染减排潜力,而针对SO2的控制则应将重点从过去的末端减排转向前端的结构性调整措施上.Abstract: In recent years, air pollutants emissions in China have reduced significantly, and thus led to improvement in air quality. However, annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in some key regions such as the “2%2B26” Cities in Jing-Jin-Ji and surrounding areas are still relatively high, far exceeding the national standard II for ambient air quality.35 μg/m3. In this regard, Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model adapted to the “2 %2B 26” Cities (GAINS-JJJ) model was applied to simulate and predict regional air quality under different policy scenarios in 2030, and contributions of structural adjustments and end-of-pipe controls (BAT) policies to the emission reduction. Results showed that (1) Due to the structural adjustment policies, such as ‘coal to clean energy’, elimination of outdated production capacity (such as steel, cement, coking, etc.), reduction of nitrogen fertilizer application and substitution of high volatile organic solvents, and the end-of-pipe control policies, such as ultra-low emission standard transformation of steel, cement and coking industries, strengthened emission standards of heavy diesel vehicles and non-road machinery, and promotion of standardized large-scale breeding, soil testing technologies, the average annual concentration of PM2.5 in the “2%2B26” Cities reached 34 μg/m3, achieving the goal of “beautiful China”. (2) The emissions of PM2.5, SO2, NOx, NH3 and NMVOCs in 2030 will be reduced by 31%, 44%, 31%, 5% and 11%, respectively, compared to 2017, due to structural adjustments; and they are further reduced by75%, 69%, 77%, 32% and 52%, respectively, due to the end-of-pipe controls. (3) The contribution of the end-of-pipe controls to the emission reductions of primary PM2.5, NOx, NH3 and NMVOCs is greater than that of the structural adjustments; while for SO2 emission reduction, structural adjustments has played a greater role. Research demonstrated that the control of SO2 before 2030 should shift the focus from the end-of-pipe measures to the structural adjustment measures.
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Key words:
- PM2.5 pollution /
- “2+26” cities /
- scenario analysis /
- reduction potential /
- simulation analysis
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